Playoffs YTD: (3-1)...not including ML win on NYJ!:00hour
This is what I considered in helping to make these picks...Stats, momentum, and the line. I don't follow trends so they are not figured in...I'm sure I could come up with some trends for each side which is why I don't think they hold much weight.
The stats used were:
Defensive front rankings (from another website)
3rd down defense
negative pass plays
defensive yds given up per carry
3rd down conversion rate
yds per completion
yds per carry
special teams
better kicker
After all that here is what I came up with.
Arizona+7...
In my opinion this line is high which would usually point me in the direction of taking N.O (I hope I don't get bit in the ass for this) but after looking at everything for the past week I can't lay 7 points to AZ. In my opinon this line is inflated because of what New Orleans did this season (started off 13-0), because of their offense, because people do not believe that they can or will lose there first playoff game at home, and because they do have a good home field advantage...However given 7 pts to a team that was in the Super Bowl a year ago, a team that knows how to win in the playoffs, and a team that is close in the statistics that I use to handicap a game and a team that is lead by one of the best Playoff QB's of all time is crazy in my opinion...I feel there is way more value in taking AZ with the points than there is in taking a team that is not proven minus 7...Think about it...Before Kurt Warner even steps on the field you are already up 7-0...I know that is a square way of looking at it up but its true...
Line advantage....AZ+7
Statistically this game is pretty even...(another reason Im taking the TD)...AZ is better at 3rd down Def, Special teams, kicker, and overall defense. New Orleans is better at 3rd down conversions, negative pass plays, against the run(a little misleading), yards per completion, yards per run (A lot of their stats were inflated because of earlier in the year).
Advantage....push
When it comes to momentum I believe AZ has it...AZ is coming off of an emotional win vs. GB while NO has lost their last 3 games...Although both teams are 5-3 in their last 8 games 1 of AZ's loses was to GB in the last week of the season when they sat everyone and had no motivation to play while NO lost their last 3 games which is a recipe for disaster because I do believe that NO was trying to finish the season undefeated and finish on a high note. After the Dallas lose things seemed to spin out of control...AZ has been good on the road this year and I really believe they are playing hard for Kurt Warner...Rumors are that he is retiring after this year and this team knows after he goes they will not be close to what they are now so I think they have a sense of urgency to do what they can to get to the dance.
Momentum advantage...AZ
Side Note: Statistically I see this game pretty close but after you factor in the experience, the momentum, and the special teams play of AZ I think 7 is a nice gift!
BAL +6.5 (I would buy the 7 if you can)...
This game is kind of similar to the game above but its not...In my opinion this line is inflated also...People love to bet good offenses because it gives them a sense of security if their behind in a game and people love to bet Peyton Manning....Now I agree its hard to bet against Peyton but its also hard to give 6.5 pts when your last 6 home games you won by 4, 3, 1, 10, 12, and 4 points...thats an average of 5.6 pts per game...Also why make the line 6.5...why not 7? Is Vegas afraid to give you a touchdown? I mean after all its Peyton Manning vs. Joe Flacco...right. Indy does have the home field advantage and all you would need to do to guarantee yourself a victory in this game is tease it down to -.5 or +.5...right? I believe the 6.5 was put out there to entice Indy money.
Line advantage...BAL+6.5 (+7)
Statistically this game favors Baltimore...Bal is better in overall defense, 3rd down def, negative pass plays, against the run, and special teams. Indy is better at 3rd down conversions, yards per completion, and I give the edge to Indy when it comes to kicking.
Advantage...Bal
When it comes to momentum I give it to Bal...again like the game above Bal just came off of a good and dominating win over the almighty Patriots and the almight duo of Brady and Belichik. They showed that they can still play a little defense when necessary and win a game when they really need to...In the last 8 games Bal is 5-3 and Indy is 6-2 but the tale of the tape is Indy lost their last 2 games...Again I know that Caldwell and the organization said they didn't care about going undefeated and they pulled their starters the last 2 games but in my opinion the players did...You could see in the Indy/Jets game that the players wanted to play and win that game and it looked like the wind came out of their sails when they were pulled...Why would you ruin the momentum on your team before the playoffs like that??? I understand you want to keep the team healthy but being healthy physically doesn't mean they will be healthy mentally...I do believe Indy will win this game because they are at home and Peyton will be running the offense but I also believe they will have to come back to win the game because I think they will come out a little rusty and out of sync because of what they endured the past 2 weeks of playing and then having a week off.
Advantage....Bal
In conclusion I do like both dogs and I will ask you this...When in doubt about a game think of what side is easier to tease and go the other way...We have 2 favorites that have a good home field advantage, arguably 2 of the top 3 QB's in the NFL and dominated the league for most of the year and are now favored by 7 or less...Meaning all you have to do is tease them both down and you should have a for sure winner....I beg to differ...Vegas doesn't give money away and since I am a betting man I would bet that one of these 2 teams lose outright and both of them don't cover.
Whatever you decide...GL:00hour
This is what I considered in helping to make these picks...Stats, momentum, and the line. I don't follow trends so they are not figured in...I'm sure I could come up with some trends for each side which is why I don't think they hold much weight.
The stats used were:
Defensive front rankings (from another website)
3rd down defense
negative pass plays
defensive yds given up per carry
3rd down conversion rate
yds per completion
yds per carry
special teams
better kicker
After all that here is what I came up with.
Arizona+7...
In my opinion this line is high which would usually point me in the direction of taking N.O (I hope I don't get bit in the ass for this) but after looking at everything for the past week I can't lay 7 points to AZ. In my opinon this line is inflated because of what New Orleans did this season (started off 13-0), because of their offense, because people do not believe that they can or will lose there first playoff game at home, and because they do have a good home field advantage...However given 7 pts to a team that was in the Super Bowl a year ago, a team that knows how to win in the playoffs, and a team that is close in the statistics that I use to handicap a game and a team that is lead by one of the best Playoff QB's of all time is crazy in my opinion...I feel there is way more value in taking AZ with the points than there is in taking a team that is not proven minus 7...Think about it...Before Kurt Warner even steps on the field you are already up 7-0...I know that is a square way of looking at it up but its true...
Line advantage....AZ+7
Statistically this game is pretty even...(another reason Im taking the TD)...AZ is better at 3rd down Def, Special teams, kicker, and overall defense. New Orleans is better at 3rd down conversions, negative pass plays, against the run(a little misleading), yards per completion, yards per run (A lot of their stats were inflated because of earlier in the year).
Advantage....push
When it comes to momentum I believe AZ has it...AZ is coming off of an emotional win vs. GB while NO has lost their last 3 games...Although both teams are 5-3 in their last 8 games 1 of AZ's loses was to GB in the last week of the season when they sat everyone and had no motivation to play while NO lost their last 3 games which is a recipe for disaster because I do believe that NO was trying to finish the season undefeated and finish on a high note. After the Dallas lose things seemed to spin out of control...AZ has been good on the road this year and I really believe they are playing hard for Kurt Warner...Rumors are that he is retiring after this year and this team knows after he goes they will not be close to what they are now so I think they have a sense of urgency to do what they can to get to the dance.
Momentum advantage...AZ
Side Note: Statistically I see this game pretty close but after you factor in the experience, the momentum, and the special teams play of AZ I think 7 is a nice gift!
BAL +6.5 (I would buy the 7 if you can)...
This game is kind of similar to the game above but its not...In my opinion this line is inflated also...People love to bet good offenses because it gives them a sense of security if their behind in a game and people love to bet Peyton Manning....Now I agree its hard to bet against Peyton but its also hard to give 6.5 pts when your last 6 home games you won by 4, 3, 1, 10, 12, and 4 points...thats an average of 5.6 pts per game...Also why make the line 6.5...why not 7? Is Vegas afraid to give you a touchdown? I mean after all its Peyton Manning vs. Joe Flacco...right. Indy does have the home field advantage and all you would need to do to guarantee yourself a victory in this game is tease it down to -.5 or +.5...right? I believe the 6.5 was put out there to entice Indy money.
Line advantage...BAL+6.5 (+7)
Statistically this game favors Baltimore...Bal is better in overall defense, 3rd down def, negative pass plays, against the run, and special teams. Indy is better at 3rd down conversions, yards per completion, and I give the edge to Indy when it comes to kicking.
Advantage...Bal
When it comes to momentum I give it to Bal...again like the game above Bal just came off of a good and dominating win over the almighty Patriots and the almight duo of Brady and Belichik. They showed that they can still play a little defense when necessary and win a game when they really need to...In the last 8 games Bal is 5-3 and Indy is 6-2 but the tale of the tape is Indy lost their last 2 games...Again I know that Caldwell and the organization said they didn't care about going undefeated and they pulled their starters the last 2 games but in my opinion the players did...You could see in the Indy/Jets game that the players wanted to play and win that game and it looked like the wind came out of their sails when they were pulled...Why would you ruin the momentum on your team before the playoffs like that??? I understand you want to keep the team healthy but being healthy physically doesn't mean they will be healthy mentally...I do believe Indy will win this game because they are at home and Peyton will be running the offense but I also believe they will have to come back to win the game because I think they will come out a little rusty and out of sync because of what they endured the past 2 weeks of playing and then having a week off.
Advantage....Bal
In conclusion I do like both dogs and I will ask you this...When in doubt about a game think of what side is easier to tease and go the other way...We have 2 favorites that have a good home field advantage, arguably 2 of the top 3 QB's in the NFL and dominated the league for most of the year and are now favored by 7 or less...Meaning all you have to do is tease them both down and you should have a for sure winner....I beg to differ...Vegas doesn't give money away and since I am a betting man I would bet that one of these 2 teams lose outright and both of them don't cover.
Whatever you decide...GL:00hour
