Playoffs

[BASON]

I do not love the NFL regular season, but I do enjoy the playoffs as I think they are easier to cap and I tend to hold my own.

Put the first play in this morning:

Pittsburgh -3.5 -120

I know Pittsburgh has been terrible the last month, but that does not bother me at all. Big Ben is an experienced QB that knows how to win playoff games and that is enough for me. Cleveland is happy to be there and is just not a very good football team. Baker Mayfield is an average QB at best. Their SOS was pathetic. They lost to the Steelers 38-7 in the only real game that played this year and I do not think they have much of a chance this week. The Steelers D will force Mayfield to beat them and I do not think he can do it.

Big Ben over Little Baker!!

 

[BASON]

My square teaser for the weekend, only need the 6 for this one:

Buffalo-.5
Tampa -2

I think the Colts will be a rather popular play as already evidenced by the line coming off the 7. Not a fan of all the hype around the Bills and it is Allen's first home playoff game, BUT, I do not think the Colts are that good. Their running game is getting better, but they still have an extremely immobile QB without great WRs. I just do not think Rivers can carry this team. Buffalo is a tough place to play even without fans and I just do not see Indy winning this game.

Great rule of thumb: never bet against Brady in the playoffs. I do not care if he is 50. The Skins defense will give him some issues, but their offense is not very good, especially now that Smith is not very mobile, and I do not think they can keep up with Tampa. I see a slow death for Washington in this game.

Like much of the playoffs, I will take the better QBs. I like this one.

 

[Dizzayton]

Allen was in playoffs last year. Lost to Houston on the road. He looked amazing in first half and deer in headlights in second half and made bad mistakes. However, the Allen of this year is completely different abs more confident QB than the Allen of last year. He has really progressed exponentially.

 

[BASON]

Thanks Dizzay. Meant to say first home playoff game and I agree that he looks like a much better QB this year. As long as he takes care of the ball they should be in good shape. Plus I think they got a get a great draw to the Championship game if the seedings hold.

 

[BASON]

Yesterday went more or less like I thought so hit the teaser.

Already have Pit at a good number, so nothing to add there.

Been round and round with the Ravens game. This will likely be an in-game bet for me as I want to see how this starts. It is hard to get the recent Ravens history with them out of my head. They have been unable to stop Henry and I really do not think they will be able to do so today. They added two middle linebackers in the draft but both have been getting pushed around all year. They will need serious safety help to stop him. The difference maker in this game is Jackson and the offense against a bad TN defense. I still think Jackson has trouble throwing it, but his ability to run makes up for that. I also think Dobbins could have a big game. If I had to bet it, I would bet the Ravens because I just do not think the line is right. I really think this game should be a pick.

Teaser was a big hit for me yesterday so I added this 10 pointer for a little more action today and into tomorrow:

Saints -.5
Pitt +4.5
Bama Ov 65

I like Bama tomorrow but I already have a big futures bet as well as a game bet at -6 with them, so I added the Over instead. If I did not have those bets I would have taken them in this one instead of the Over.

 

[BASON]

Nothing to say that I was just wrong about Pittsburgh and it cost me. However, I still do not think I am wrong about Cleveland, so I am sticking to my guns:

KC -9 -124

I do not think Cleveland has a chance in this game. I still think they are a flawed team and KC should beat them handily. I was hoping for a lower number, but I do not think we are going to get it so I took what I could get right now. I will probably play some higher alternative lines also as I think KC should win by at least 2 TDs.

Only thing that saved me yesterday was playing the Ravens in game once they went down 10-0. They still did not play well on offense but the defense was suffocating and you have to give them credit for stuffing Henry. They have the corners to play man to man which allows them to stack up against the run, which is especially important in the playoffs when you have to rape someone to get a penalty.

Buffalo line came out exactly where I thought it would be. They are begging people to bet Buffalo already. There was heavy money on the Ravens yesterday and I think there will be more of the same this weekend. Buffalo can not run the ball, so I think the Ravens will focus on bringing the heat to Allen while masking different coverages and blitzes to confuse him. I expect the Baltimore defense to win them this game. Will have more on this later.

 

[BASON]

My conspiracy theory ML parlay:

Green Bay
Baltimore
KC
Tampa

+750

Partly cynical, partly not. You know the NFL wants these matchups for the conference finals. I am not in love with Tampa, but like I said before, I never bet against Brady in the playoffs. Got some money to play with from the NCAA Championship, so why not. Put it in a few minutes ago.

 

[ezpickin]

My conspiracy theory ML parlay:

Green Bay
Baltimore
KC
Tampa

+750

Partly cynical, partly not. You know the NFL wants these matchups for the conference finals. I am not in love with Tampa, but like I said before, I never bet against Brady in the playoffs. Got some money to play with from the NCAA Championship, so why not. Put it in a few minutes ago.

The NFL would prefer Buffalo/KC... They are clearly (on paper) the 2 best teams in the AFC

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

 

[BASON]

Respectfully disagree. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are a much bigger national draw for the NFL's target audience than Allen and Buffalo. I think the top 3 in merch sales are Mahomes, Brady and Jackson. I do not think the NFL cares about having the "best" teams, they want the teams that garner the biggest audience. I think a Ravens/Chiefs audience would be significantly bigger than Bills/Chiefs.

Also, aren't the odds telling you that the Ravens are the better team? Buffalo is only a 2.5 point favorite at home, so Baltimore would be favored on a neutral field. I think the NFL is drooling over a Ravens/Chiefs match up.

 

[BASON]

My playoff capping is based on my KISS method:

1. Bet the team with the best QB and you win more often than you lose.
2. Bet the team that plays the best defense
3. Bet the team that can run the ball

Of course this does not always work, but throughout the years the order holds more often than not. The Patriots are the perfect example of the team that did all three and is the reason why they were so successful. Sure, a lot of the credit goes to Brady, but they won championships because they could run the ball and play great defense. Most people tend to forget that the Patriots were almost always a very strong running team. All the talk was Brady, Brady, Brady, but they consistently won because they could run the ball and because of Belicheck's defense.

For these reasons, I made the following bet earlier today:

Baltimore +3 -129

Baltimore clearly tops the Bills based on this criteria. The QBs I will call a wash given Allen's arm and Jackson's legs, but Baltimore is by far the better running and defensive team. What is more likely: Allen throws for 350+ or the Ravens run for 200+? For me, it is the latter. When the Ravens DBs are healthy, they are one of the most difficult teams to throw on consistently in the league. I expect their defense to win them this game.

The X factor in this game is the weather. If I were a Buffalo fan I would be doing my best snow dance as Lamar has never really played in the snow. The other X factor for me is the line. They are begging for Buffalo money and the line is not moving. I also cited this last week as I was surprised to see the Ravens line hold at 3.5.

I think the Ravens will win a close game but I am happy to take the points in a game between two teams that on paper is tough to pick. Both are great against the spread. Buffalo is great at home and the Ravens are a strong road team. I can on and on with stats but that is why I try to KISS.

I think this will be the best game of the weekend. The old men in New Orleans are getting a lot of hype, but I think the young boys in Buffalo will be better. There is a reason they got the Saturday night slot.

I admit that I am a Ravens fan, but when I bet on their games, it is usually against them, but this week I like this spot. They are relaxed after finally getting a playoff win with Jackson, they seem to thrive playing on the road and their defense is suited to stop Allen like they did last year (I realize Buffalo is much better this year, but Allen struggled a lot in that game).

I am ready for this one now!

 

[TouchdownJesus]

Saw a video from a guy that does a lot of videos about how the NFL is scripted and I'm pretty sure he picked the same 4 that you did on the ML parlay. I may take that as well.

He said Jackson's "kryptonite" is playing at home and that as long as he's on the road, he'll win. Said that Aaron Rogers getting to the conference title was another...and of course Brady...he said Brady showing that it was him and not Belichick or at least that he can win w/o him...said it's all about selling the player now and he expects Bucs to beat Ravens in Super Bowl b/c I think.

Also said that Browns will get a lead but KC will come back on them to win this week.

I didn't realize Super Bowl was in Tampa Bay this year. Wow....Brady w new team could have a home game in Super Bowl...lol. He said they're trying to make Brady into best athlete ever type guy.

It's really late and I'm exhausted but will try to come back here tomorrow. I've got to work all weekend and should really be sleeping right now lol....so I just took that ML parlay. Gonna leave spread alone in first game and see what happens. But will take Ravens +3 as well. If things go well I may hedge Sunday night haha.

As always, good luck. Working 12 days in a row is no fun but it's usually only once a year. Twice this year.

 

[Jord20]

My conspiracy theory ML parlay:

Green Bay
Baltimore
KC
Tampa

+750

Partly cynical, partly not. You know the NFL wants these matchups for the conference finals. I am not in love with Tampa, but like I said before, I never bet against Brady in the playoffs. Got some money to play with from the NCAA Championship, so why not. Put it in a few minutes ago.

I like this one.

Played it at +805 this morning.

GL


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[BASON]

I usually play a lot of props for fun and tend to do well, but I just do not have the energy this year so I got one play for the Super Bowl:

Over 55 -122

While I think the Chiefs are the better team, I simply can not bet against Tom Brady. Just can't do it as I think he made a deal with the devil or something. I think the NFL will get what it wants out of this game after a rough year. Tampa will try to control the clock and play the possession game, but KC's ability to score quick can ruin that fast. I think we are going to see high scoring game that will come down to the last possession so I will take the over even though the number is high. I see a 35-31 type game.

 

[Randercity]

I usually play a lot of props for fun and tend to do well, but I just do not have the energy this year so I got one play for the Super Bowl:

Over 55 -122

While I think the Chiefs are the better team, I simply can not bet against Tom Brady. Just can't do it as I think he made a deal with the devil or something. I think the NFL will get what it wants out of this game after a rough year. Tampa will try to control the clock and play the possession game, but KC's ability to score quick can ruin that fast. I think we are going to see high scoring game that will come down to the last possession so I will take the over even though the number is high. I see a 35-31 type game.

I see it exactly the same way... I could have easily written this very same post!! [emoji41]

Good luck to us!

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[BASON]

Added one Prop:

Yes to a Def or Special Team TD +220

Enjoy the game!!