plays & angles for 9/21-9/24.....

[AR182]

last year i started posting excerpts from a column by peter fiutak,from the college football news, about double digit home dogs....

here is this weeks....

"I noticed a trend last year that after the early part of the season, the double-digit home underdog almost always covered. By the end of the season, the final tally, against the spread, was an amazing 51-21 (71%). Like I said, it?s still a little early. I?d prefer to wait at least another week or two until conference play really gets rolling, but several of you e-mailed me giggling that this theory worked for you last week (Lama, hey, how about a little something, you know, for the effort) with Temple covering the 29 points at home against Toledo (losing 42-17) and Buffalo holding up covering the 22 points at home against Rutgers (losing 17-3).

So to kick it off for this week as purely an exercise for the interest of the general public and never something to risk Junior?s juice money over, here are the DDHDs.
- Iowa State -17.5 at Army
- Cal -30 at New Mexico State
- Florida -22.5 at Kentucky
- Notre Dame -13.5 at Washington (I know the theory is sound, the theory is wise, but I don?t see how U-Dub keeps this one under two TDs.)
- Louisville -21.5 at South Florida
- USC -21.5 at Oregon
- Georgia -14.5 at Miss State
- Michigan State -10.5 at Illinois"


here is a system that i just read pertaining to one of the above games.....

teams playing after a bye week (1995-2005) that are playing on the road & favored by 7+ points are 50-89-2 ats (36%)

play against iowa st.

good luck.

 

[pt1gard]

thanx AR ... some good stuff there

gl, gregg

 

[MACH1]

Baylor was only favored by 5.5 last week at Army. They covered but Army played them tough. Iowa St. beat Iowa and has had 2 weeks to practice for Army. Don't think they'll be up for this one at all.

Thanks for the post AR..

 

[INtheBLUE]

gotta agree with ya mach1. Don't see army even scoring at this one

 

[CrazyHorse]

Lama, hey, how about a little something, you know, for the effort

good luck.

Won't be any money..but when you die, on your deathbed..you will achieve total consciousness. So I got that going for me, which is nice.

Sorry didn't email you but I couldn't resist.

I think many of those home dogs have a great chance to cover. My 3 fav's are:

NMSU, now at +30. Cal outgained them 611-211 lyr and still wouldn't have covered that number. They may well do it again but this one is on the road. Don't see them being too up for this one

SFLA +22..they always seem to play well at home. Defense is giving up 230 yds a game. Louisvilles wins no doubt but I think by about 10-17

Ill +10.5. Mostly due to the fact that Mich St is in a ND/Michigan sandwich. If they are 100% focused and up for this they win by 20+. I don't think they will be.

We'll see but thanks again for posting this. I remember seeing how profitable it was week after week last yr.

 

[Clem D]

Solid stuff as always

 

[gardenweasel]

i grabbed so fla...at +22....at night.....

i don`t see louisville`s motivation here...so fla...if not for a couple big turnovers...and a long run...might still be playing at penn st...

don`t get me wrong...louisville could throttle the floridians...but they have a nice running game with andre hall...a nice little program....

if a poor kentucky club can hang at home...maybe so. fla. can hang under the lights...there may be an injury or 2 for the cards also...

very small..the potential for disaster is hanging over this play like the sword of damocles...lol

also liked west virginia at home -20 over east carolina...as a real play...

i watched west va`s running game wear maryland down to the quick last week...by the middle of the 3rd qtr,they were unstoppable...

their fullback was gashing maryland`s defense like it was paper mache`...

east carolina gave up over 400 yards rushing to wake last week...wake can run the pill...but,west va can run it...and play defense...one of maryland`s two t.d.`s last week was on a fluke 73 yard pass right before the end of the half...

the rub?....west va has va tech on deck...the backdoor scares me...

while i`m at it..i wonder if wake`s not worth a look?....they can run the ball,too...and maryland`s rush defense isn`t exactly a rock...

hard to lay even 2 with a wake caliber club...but,they can run the ball...and maryland hasn`t been able to....

there`s 2 examples of good rushing clubs vs bad rushing clubs with bad rush defense....

food for thought...

g.l.

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...appreciate it.

gw,

don't remind me about the wake/e.car.game...that game & the n. mex./n.mex. st. game were 2 backdoors that annoyed me for a little while...but got over it.


i'm also leaning to w. virginia vs.e.carolina....

but am leaning to maryland vs. wake....i think maryland has a pretty decent run defense....you can beat them by throwing the ball...something wake can't do...nothing firm right now...

however i do think col. st. is a very good play....i think this has the makings of an old woodshed beating...but of course you never know.

 

[gardenweasel]

i took a little piece of colo st,myself...strictly off a friend`s advice...i`m glad you like it...

i have to say..that west va `s ground game was really gouging maryland in the 2nd half...and wake can run it pretty good themselves....

still...it is wake....freidgen usually finds a way vs the 2nd tier acc clubs....

this one`s to tough for me....

g.l.2u

 

[AR182]

tonight playing small on.......

1*af+7.5 (115).....

af is 6-0 ats as a dog vs. utah, including 4-0 ats on the road

good luck.

 

[Master Capper]

Good luck AR...appreciate the info...passing tonights games dontl like the number at 7.5 either way and didnt have time to look at the totals

 

[RAYMOND]

gl al

 

[AR182]

thanks guys....

ray, everything is fine...thanks for asking...

got lucky tonight with air force......will update record after saturday.

some plays for saturday......

4*u49 mich/wisc.....

i think both coaches will come into this game with a conservative game plan.wisc. cannot afford to get into a shoot-out with mich,so think that they will try to control the line of scrimmage by running the ball.the mich. coach, carr, to me always seems to play conservative in big 10 games. so, unless there are some special team points, this game should reach the low 40's, at best.

2*oregon+22....

i don't expect oregon to win this game, but can see them keeping it within 3 td's.

ou is 38-8 su at home since 1998, & 17-6 ats in their last 23 at home, including 5-0 ats when getting 6 or more points.

as great as usc was last year, they were only 1-3 ats on the road.

here is an angle that supports this play.....

game 3 conference favorites or pick-em that covered the spread as a favorite or was pick-em in each of their first 2 games are 4-26-1 ats(13%) since 1980.....play against usc

2*illinois+11.....

mich. st.just upset notre dame last week & play michigan next week...their pass defense is allowing 340 yds. per game....teams that beat nd & are favorites the next week are 3-18 ats (14%).....ill.is 6-0 ats in their last 6 home games.

an angle that supports this play....

play against any ncaa road favorite in game 4 or greater coming off 3 consecutive s/u wins. the last of which was a road underdog win....

since 1997 ats record is 3-11 (22.5%)....play against mich. st.

2* boston college+3.....

i originally was going to get off this bet, but kept looking at it & thought that even with the 2nd string qb i'll still take my chances with, what i feel is a better team & a much better coach.also clemson has played 3 tough games, 2 in which they came from behind & 1 that went into 3ot. i feel that they will be a little flat for this game.

even though bc lost last week to fla. st,they out gained fla st by over 100 yards for the game...that impressed me....the b.c coach is 8-0 ats in conference play when both teams are coming off a loss.

good luck.

 

[soul train]

Always solid info in your threads..

Keep up the good work...it will pay off

 

[gardenweasel]

really like b.c.+4(bought half)....the under in mich.wisky and the illini......


nice card....congrats on that air force backdoor...

is there anything more satisfying than getting a backdoor cover?...

within the realm of gambling,that is...lol

 

[Irish]

Nice card this weekend.. Like Mich st but can't do it.
Cheers
Irish

 

[countinguy]

GL AR, I think ur on the right side of the illinois game, I just can't lay it til I see them play a good team, after tomorrow we will know, LOL

 

[AR182]

thanks guys....

adding....

2*san diego st.-13.5(120)....

sdst. has played the 12th most difficult schedule to date.....they played ucla, air force, & ohio st....under this present coach,sdst. is 3-0 ats when laying more than 7 points.....san jose st. is 3-8-1 ats in their last 12 road games...

2*n. car. st.-10....

under amato, ncst.is 9-1 ats isu revenge wins, while n. car.is 5-32 ats in games they lose su to avenging opponents.

2*mayland+3.....

wake has no passing attack & i think md. is a better overall team than wake.....wake is 5-16 ats, in it's last 21 as a favorite,i including 0-7 ats in it's last 7 times as a favorite....md. is 20-5 su vs. wake, including 6 straight covering wins......

2*kan. st.-24.......

this has blow out written all over it....kst. will take away the n. tex. running game & make their young qb beat them through the air, which will create turnovers....n. texas concentrates on its league games & plays troy next week....kst. is 7-3 ats in their last 10 times before they start league play...

2*virginia-24(120)....

uva is 37-13 ats in it's last 50 acc games off an ats loss....they are 13-1 ats in their last 14 times off b2b ats losses....virginia has a very good running attack, while duke has a very weak running attack...when virginia doubles the rushing yardage vs. it's opponent, they are 49-16 ats.

2*col.st.-17......

i'm not judging col. st. by it's 2 losses on the road to col. & minn....i think that they will be a pretty good team....the coach has said that he will resort to a power running attack vs. nevada, which is a good idea because nevada has yielded 249 rushing yards at 7.3 ypr vs. 2 mediocre running attacks (wash. st.& unlv)....nevada is 0-8 ats in it's last 8 road games...

2*minn-3.....

think that minn's big offensive line should wear purdue down......

a couple of angles.....

home favories of more than 21 pts. are 12-32-2 ats (27%) against a non-conference opponent after winning & covering the previous week in a game in which they were favored by 7 pts.or less or are getting points.....play against w. virginia

play any college home team that scored more than 35 points in the first half last week...

since 1997....63-32 ats (66%).....play minn.& n.c.st.


good luck.

 

[mw]

I love the SDSU and Maryland plays. UVA also looks to be the right side.

Thanks for the angles/info.

 

[AR182]

thanks,**

adding all for 2*.....

g.t.+11......

here is something that i read on the game:

"Going back through 1980,VT is a surprising 0-11 ATS as a conference home favorite of more than 4 points off a home victory, and 0-3 ATS as a conference home favorite off a non-conference home win. As impressive as a shutout is, it often gives a team a false sense of security, and the team tends to let down once they are scored on and no longer feel invincible. That could well be the case here for Virginia Tech, as they are 0-5 ATS in Saturday home games after pitching a shutout since 1996".

c.mich-4...bought this early in the week.
temple+4
smu+4
u 49 tulane/smu
ohio-3
u 48 tulsa/memphis

good luck.