last week 4-1 +290 (4 plays posted in HT thread, one regular play)
ytd 22-8 +1260
BUF +6 (+100) 200/200
Love this play. Winless teams off a bye have a solid ats record. Not sure of the overall record but NYJ and SD both won outright as dogs in the same spot last year. Bills defense is definitely top 5 caliber and are at home. I expect the Bills to play it conservative and think they win a close one at home.
CLE +3 (+100) 200/200
No question Washington is the more talented team. But what I love here is the fact the skins are off a MNF game vs the hated cowboys and have a espn SNF game vs the Ravens next week. Huge sandwich game although I do worry Gibbs will keep the team more focused than they usually would be. However all week it seems they were whining about the calls in the MNF game and I think the Browns can catch them napping w/ a loud home crowd. Cleveland is someting like 8-1 ats under Davis as home dogs vs teams that are under .500. Just think this is a dangerous spot for the skins.
JAX +4.5 (220/200)
Keep hearing how the Jags have a great run defense and a below avg pass defense but the #s do not reflect that to this point. JAX is so strong at the point of attack on defense and Indy is no stranger to laying an egg on the road, especially on grass. We all know about the Indy offense but once again the defense looks pretty bad. Another enticing home dog here.
CHI +10 220/200
I know Grossman is out and that is a huge concern. But I have seen too many times a team rally around a new starter and play well a few games. As 10 pt dogs just need the Bears to play well enough to cover. I have been impressed w/ this team playing so hard, despite all their injuries. Philly cruising along and have been one of the best (if not the best) road team in the nfl last few years. However can't help but feel Philly is peeking ahead to a rematch vs Carolina after their bye week. Philly is giving up 360 yds a game.
Smaller plays:
TBu 35 110/100
always look for a reason to play TB unders as they have a solid defense and very below avg offense. Playing against Denvers #1 yardage defense is good enough for me. I think this one looks like a 17-12 type game. Galloway is a overrated WR but he is someone you have to account for and w/ him out of the lineup it really limits what the Bucs can do on offense.
TEN -3 (-120) 120/100
Hate taking road fav's but think this one is worth a shot. If the Titans get WR Calico back like it even more. Think he is a very underrated WR and can really open things up for Tennessee, regardless of who the QB is. Volek is a proven solid #2 WR and the Titans do have a good rush defense and if they can slow down LT (hopefully they take a page out of what Denver did to him last week), I think they do enough to get the win/cover as the SD passing game is pretty lame and I am not sold on Reche Caldwell.
HOU +3 (-120) 110/100
Oakland coming off the huge espn SNF win vs the Bucs and have Indy next so think they will be flat here. Houston defense scares me here but I think they have enough weapons on offense to keep this close. K. Collins may be an upgrade over Gannon but he is also capable of some pretty bad throws when taking chances. I just don't see Oakland being very up for this one.
have leans to ARZ +3.5 and SF +4 but that is it for now..gl to all today!
ytd 22-8 +1260
BUF +6 (+100) 200/200
Love this play. Winless teams off a bye have a solid ats record. Not sure of the overall record but NYJ and SD both won outright as dogs in the same spot last year. Bills defense is definitely top 5 caliber and are at home. I expect the Bills to play it conservative and think they win a close one at home.
CLE +3 (+100) 200/200
No question Washington is the more talented team. But what I love here is the fact the skins are off a MNF game vs the hated cowboys and have a espn SNF game vs the Ravens next week. Huge sandwich game although I do worry Gibbs will keep the team more focused than they usually would be. However all week it seems they were whining about the calls in the MNF game and I think the Browns can catch them napping w/ a loud home crowd. Cleveland is someting like 8-1 ats under Davis as home dogs vs teams that are under .500. Just think this is a dangerous spot for the skins.
JAX +4.5 (220/200)
Keep hearing how the Jags have a great run defense and a below avg pass defense but the #s do not reflect that to this point. JAX is so strong at the point of attack on defense and Indy is no stranger to laying an egg on the road, especially on grass. We all know about the Indy offense but once again the defense looks pretty bad. Another enticing home dog here.
CHI +10 220/200
I know Grossman is out and that is a huge concern. But I have seen too many times a team rally around a new starter and play well a few games. As 10 pt dogs just need the Bears to play well enough to cover. I have been impressed w/ this team playing so hard, despite all their injuries. Philly cruising along and have been one of the best (if not the best) road team in the nfl last few years. However can't help but feel Philly is peeking ahead to a rematch vs Carolina after their bye week. Philly is giving up 360 yds a game.
Smaller plays:
TBu 35 110/100
always look for a reason to play TB unders as they have a solid defense and very below avg offense. Playing against Denvers #1 yardage defense is good enough for me. I think this one looks like a 17-12 type game. Galloway is a overrated WR but he is someone you have to account for and w/ him out of the lineup it really limits what the Bucs can do on offense.
TEN -3 (-120) 120/100
Hate taking road fav's but think this one is worth a shot. If the Titans get WR Calico back like it even more. Think he is a very underrated WR and can really open things up for Tennessee, regardless of who the QB is. Volek is a proven solid #2 WR and the Titans do have a good rush defense and if they can slow down LT (hopefully they take a page out of what Denver did to him last week), I think they do enough to get the win/cover as the SD passing game is pretty lame and I am not sold on Reche Caldwell.
HOU +3 (-120) 110/100
Oakland coming off the huge espn SNF win vs the Bucs and have Indy next so think they will be flat here. Houston defense scares me here but I think they have enough weapons on offense to keep this close. K. Collins may be an upgrade over Gannon but he is also capable of some pretty bad throws when taking chances. I just don't see Oakland being very up for this one.
have leans to ARZ +3.5 and SF +4 but that is it for now..gl to all today!
