am 4-1 on the day so far, so it's time to get greedy. i am increasing my bet on the ravens tonight. they now become a 10*.
gw, hope you read this because you asked for my reasoning on this game. but in no way do i recommend you switching your play if you like the rams.
10*balt.+8(-126)--- the ravens have averaged 5.1 ypr this season (against teams that allow 4.1 ypr) and lewis will have no trouble running the ball against a soft Rams? defensive front that?s surrendered 4.6 ypr this season (against teams that average a combined 4.3 ypr on offense). baltimore?s rookie quarterback boller has averaged only 4.8 yards per pass play this season (against teams that allow 5.8 yppp on defense), but is gaining confidence and has averaged an impressive 6.8 yppp the last 3 weeks (against teams that allow 5.8 yppp), so he could put up decent numbers in this game against a mediocre Rams? secondary (6.0 yppp against teams that average 5.9 yppp on offense). the rams? offense has been good with bulger at quarterback (5.6 yards per play against teams that allow 5.1 yppl on defense), but the ravens are just as good defensively (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.0 yppl on offense) as the rams are offensively, so the rams can be expected to post only mediocre numbers in this game.balt. defense has allowed an average of 16.4 pts. per game in their last 7 games(including 17 points vs. a hot kc team), & the rams defense has given up at least 21 points in 6 of their 8 games balt. 17-5 ats as a road underdog in recent years , including 6-0 ats getting more than 6 points.
a trend that supports this play: play on road dog or pick(balt.) outrushing their opponent by 1 or more yds./carry on the season.
ats record for the last 5 years is 32-14 (69.5%)
i'm not a fan of the way the rams play football, so i will go with the system that has been used by many great coaches, & take the team with the better defense, better running attack & the bonus of getting points.
good luck
