last week 3-3 -30
ytd 41 - 19 +2580
WAS -3 (-125) 250/200
Bengals have been a horrible road team and particularly, Carson Palmer's #'s on the road leave much to be desired. Washington has the #1 rated yardage defense in the league which should only add to Cincy's road #'s. Cincy can't stop the run and that bodes well for Portis who looks improved and more patient. I am very concerned about the Skins offense as they could not score much on Detroit who are in the bottom 7 in defense. Regardless a line of 3 at home is too good to pass up considering the Skins defense and the Bengals bad road #'s
HOU +8.5 220/200
Waited too long and line has come down from the nice key # of 9.5. Still think Houston gets w/in a TD here. Colts off a MNF win and teams have not done well the next week, at least this year. Colts gain 413 on offense and give up 402 yds. Texans avg 357 on offense and give up 349. So basically each team avg's about 10 more yds then they give up. Obviously the Colts have the home field edge but think anything over 7 pts is too much. Colts struggled to put away a Moss-less Vikings team and the Texans are very balanced on offense.
JAXu35 220/200
The #'s don't really back this up considering how many yds DET and JAX give up (344 and 341 respectively). This is mostly a "gut feeling" play. And to be honest I would rather Leftwich play and have the total at 36-38 then Garrard and a 35 pt total. Just worry a new QB creates a lot of unknowns and that includes the emotional factor (teammates stepping up when a main starter goes down). But Detroit's defensive #'s have improved over the last few games and their yardage offense is 2nd to last in the NFL. Jax 'd' has been exposed a bit but I think they will do much better at home.
BUF +7.5 220/200
An outright upset would not be a shocker here. Bills playing much better of late. Mcgahee looks like the real deal and they have Milloy back. Thin 2ndary for the Pats will open things up even more for Mcgahee and the Bills offense. Bills defense is very good and giving up only 268 yds per game compared to Pats 339 yds. WR corps a bit thin for the Pats I think the Bills can cover this #. Even w/ the win at STL I am still not convinced the Pats are all the way back to being themselves. Crowd may be a benefit to the Pats but the cold weather shouldn't hurt the Bills at all.
gl to all today! Strong lean to Pittsburgh but passing on that one. There has been some great info here about that game and a solid case can be made for playing the Brownies. I still think Pitt covers this one but I don't like road favorites especially w/in the division. Still can't help but feel around 2:30 I am gonna regret not playing them.
ytd 41 - 19 +2580
WAS -3 (-125) 250/200
Bengals have been a horrible road team and particularly, Carson Palmer's #'s on the road leave much to be desired. Washington has the #1 rated yardage defense in the league which should only add to Cincy's road #'s. Cincy can't stop the run and that bodes well for Portis who looks improved and more patient. I am very concerned about the Skins offense as they could not score much on Detroit who are in the bottom 7 in defense. Regardless a line of 3 at home is too good to pass up considering the Skins defense and the Bengals bad road #'s
HOU +8.5 220/200
Waited too long and line has come down from the nice key # of 9.5. Still think Houston gets w/in a TD here. Colts off a MNF win and teams have not done well the next week, at least this year. Colts gain 413 on offense and give up 402 yds. Texans avg 357 on offense and give up 349. So basically each team avg's about 10 more yds then they give up. Obviously the Colts have the home field edge but think anything over 7 pts is too much. Colts struggled to put away a Moss-less Vikings team and the Texans are very balanced on offense.
JAXu35 220/200
The #'s don't really back this up considering how many yds DET and JAX give up (344 and 341 respectively). This is mostly a "gut feeling" play. And to be honest I would rather Leftwich play and have the total at 36-38 then Garrard and a 35 pt total. Just worry a new QB creates a lot of unknowns and that includes the emotional factor (teammates stepping up when a main starter goes down). But Detroit's defensive #'s have improved over the last few games and their yardage offense is 2nd to last in the NFL. Jax 'd' has been exposed a bit but I think they will do much better at home.
BUF +7.5 220/200
An outright upset would not be a shocker here. Bills playing much better of late. Mcgahee looks like the real deal and they have Milloy back. Thin 2ndary for the Pats will open things up even more for Mcgahee and the Bills offense. Bills defense is very good and giving up only 268 yds per game compared to Pats 339 yds. WR corps a bit thin for the Pats I think the Bills can cover this #. Even w/ the win at STL I am still not convinced the Pats are all the way back to being themselves. Crowd may be a benefit to the Pats but the cold weather shouldn't hurt the Bills at all.
gl to all today! Strong lean to Pittsburgh but passing on that one. There has been some great info here about that game and a solid case can be made for playing the Brownies. I still think Pitt covers this one but I don't like road favorites especially w/in the division. Still can't help but feel around 2:30 I am gonna regret not playing them.
