Plays for 11.16.02

[CrazyHorse]

Didn't post last weekend as I was still licking my wounds from a horible saturday. Hope to improve this week and will update YTD later in the week as those #'s are at home.

Vanderbilt +16 vs Kentucky (CANBET 207/200)

Was hoping to get this at 17 but will play it regardless. Vandy has been playing a little bit more competetive last week and didn't play too bad vs Alabama getting a push even though game stats looked like they didn't cover. Even still they are not giving up as many yds on defense over as KY and in the last 3 KY is giving up 80 more yds per game. Kentucky was badly outgained in the Miss St game despite them winning big. They were also outgained by LSU by about 100 yds and maybe with the last second loss they will come out flat this week against an opponent they obviously won't be that up for after playing LSU and GA recently. Mostly a play against KY's defense which is giving up too many yds to be this big a favorite IMO.


Will add more plays as the week goes on and a strong lean to Washington and Baylor (yikes) but will look into those more before posting anything.

 

[CrazyHorse]

Nov. 12 2-6-1 -1129

YTD 43-34-4 +1368

thank God for my halftime plays otherwise it wouldv'e been a clean sweep (0-5-1). Adding:

Washington +8 vs Oregon (214/200 canbet)

Big worry about Washington's inability to run the ball. However the Husky passing game is best in the PAC10 and I believe is in the top 4 in the nation. And Oregon can be had thru the air. Listening to the UW/Oregon St game it couldv'e been closer if not for 2 INT's for TD's by UW. Even still this is mostly a play on the Husky passing attack vs the Oregon pass defense. Both teams play their instate rival next week so any kind of look-ahead cancels out IMO. Getting over 7 is very nice as even if Oregon is up big I can see the Pickett to Williams connection getting a backdoor cover. Will be crossing my fingers that the weather is decent.

Illinois +9 vs Ohio St (214/200 canbet)

I may go against Ohio St every game from here on out. Took Purdue last week (c'mon doesn't everybody win their bets they don't post ) Mostly this is a play against Ohio St as the pressure is on and I noticed last yr that teams in this spot (knowing if they win out they are in the Nat'l Cahmpionship game) cover less than usual. Add in the fact that Ohio St is on the road, where I believe they haven't covered yet and Illinois is playing it's best stretch of football this year. Maybe they are giving up alot of yds but they are gaining alot of yds also. Ohio St doesn't have the offense to cover this spread if the Illini can score a few TD's themselves. Also doesn't hurt that Ohio St just might be looking ahead to a game with JSMOOTHS' Wolverines next week. Mostly a play hoping for the pressure to get to the Buckeyes playing a team w/ nothing to lose and you can believe after a dissapointing year a win vs Ohio St would be huge.



Will add plays as the week goes on. If anybody has any opinions on Baylor +36.5 I would be interested. I read at another site where since 1988 teams that start the yr 5-0 or better before losing to screw up their perfect season are 43-65-2 ATS in the following game. That is now 44-68-2 after this past weekend with VA Tech (outright loss), Notre Dame (almost), and GA losing ATS(only NC St covered of the 4; they were also the only underdog). Now we have Oklahoma and Bowling Green this week. I am not sure about BGU as I don't think they ever realistically thought they had a chance at a Nat'l Championship and they are dogs this week. However I am sure OU felt they had a great chance at being undefeated. However I don't think this is something to blindly bet against but I still think it is a very solid trend. I don't think Baylor has covered a spread this year. They may have a push but I don't think they have had one cover this year. With OU off a huge loss is this the spot for Baylor to get their 1st cover or will OU have this spread covered by halftime?

 

[Chenker]

like UW and Illinois this weekend.... send me an email again with your address and I am going to mail you a check for the hats because it will be easier for me

 

[CrazyHorse]

thanks Chenker and keep kicking a** in the NHL forum. I will be pulling for Minnesota tonite!

 

[Chenker]

sorry about the Caps last night

I know you like the look ahead angle and I think the Trojans want Notre Dame and might not be that focused against ASU. I think I am going to take the 17 points in this one:shrug:

 

[CrazyHorse]

I agree and was just thinking about that game. I believe USC is the best team in the PAC10 or at least 2nd best behing WSU but still think this is alot of pts with the big rivalry game with Notre Dame upcoming. I may take ASU myself but am hoping the line keeps going up. Adding:

Baylor +38 vs Oklahoma (220/200 SIA)

Might be suicide taking a team that has only covered one line all yr (may have been a push depending on the book). However with OU coming off the loss to Tex A&M I think they may be a little flat. Posted earlier about how teams that start the yr 5-0 or better before losing to screw up their perfect season are 44-68-2 ATS in the following game. I probably won't bet against Bowling Green since they are underdogs and last week all the previous unbeatens in this exact same spot all didn't cover xcept NC St and they were a dog. Oklahoma didn't cover this # last yr vs Baylor and I believe both teams are pretty close to last yr talent-wise. So will take a chance with the ugly home dog. Line started at 36 and I will take a chance that it stays where it's at or goes down a little but I have been a pretty poor judge of line movement this yr so it wouldn't surprise me to see this line go to 40 Gl to all saturday!

 

[bigdad2]

Crazy Horse - I've been following the Baylor line all week and I think that so long as it stays under 40, OU bettors will hammer the line driving it up. Interesting trend you referenced in regards to teams such as BG and OU this weekend. If line hits 40 by game time, I see 40.5 as a possibility, I'll bite. Can't justify a play on Baylor, even at home, for less than that. Either way GL this weekend!

P.S. All over Ill at +9 and I am a huge Buckeye fan with a ticket to next week's game. Best of both world's when they win outright and you have to other team to cover

 

[thekidwhocould]

crazy horse, the baylor game seems like a smart pick, but i can definitely see alot of ou back ups getting playing time, and playing there hearts out at that. if ou builds a comfortable lead there back ups come in and wont let up. i see this as an easy cover, especially off the loss. i watched baylor play last weak in austin and this team couldnt move the ball a bit. 4 and out x50
plus these players have already quit. my buddy played at nebraska 9 years ago and said that this head coach( former) was a real prick and he figured the players have already quit on him.
ultimately, this baylor team is really, really bad. they've covered once this year, barely. of course im just a sooner who still thanks we will find a way to make it to the big game.

good luck on all your plays!!!!

 

[CrazyHorse]

thanks for the replies.

I do worry when the OU backups come in because, as you said, they will be playing hard to get a starting spot in the future. And the backups are probably 10 times better than Baylor's 1st team anyway so I really don't factor that in at all. However this is mostly a play on that angle I posted. I just think OU had dreams of going unbeaten and there will be some sort of let down, especially in a game vs pitiful Baylor sandwiched between TX A/M and TX Tech. Baylor sucks to be sure but they did last year when OU won by what I believe was 38-10 or something like that. However that was before the Nebraska game so look ahead may have been a big reason why last year they didn't cover.

one more small play:

Washington ML +230 30/69

 

[CrazyHorse]

Adding:

Michigan St +3 (214/200 canbet)

Auburn +2.5 (214/200 canbet)

 

[CrazyHorse]

4-3-1 (posted ARZ+10 in the halftime thread) -80

ytd 47-37-5 +1288

tough loss on vandy with kentucky scoring a td on a fumble return on their kickoff with 16 seconds to go. gl to all next week.