plays for 11/22-11/26.....

[AR182]

158-99-4 +59.60*


4*toledo+7....

got this yesterday when a few books had 7 on this game....i now see 5 at most places with an occasional 4.5 at some others.....

imo, last weeks upsets of b.g. beating miami o & n. illinois beating toledo has made this line a little wacky.... which givies toledo good value....

this game like all football games will be won on the line of scrimmage & i think this where toledo has an edge & has the potential to play keepaway.......they lead the mac in rushing, scoring, & defense.....stats show that bg allows 4.8 yds per rush to teams that average 4.2 yds per rush on offense...toledo averages 4.8 ypr on the road & 5.4 ypr overall on offense....on defense toledo allows 3.2 ypr.....toledo won't completely stop bg, but can slow them down......


here are some angles that support this play....

play on - underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (toledo) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite against opponent off 2 straight wins against conference rivals......ats record 31-6 over the last 5 seasons....83.8%

play on - road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (toledo) - in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite....ats record is 27-4 since 1992....87.1%

good luck....

 

[BadAngel]

Good luck buddy. Kind of like them myself.

 

[Irish]

AR
Hate to be head to head tonight but as always best of luck.
Cheers
Irish

 

[Toma]

nice call on toledo last nite AR. seems most everybody had bg. hope you don't mind, i have been riding your coatails lately and building a nice xmas bonus.

 

[smurphy]

Nice year AR, Congrats!

 

[AR182]

thanks guys.....really appreciate it....

toma...

of course i don't mind that you follow my plays....but of course you do it at your own risk....

for thanksgiving day.....

2*teaser.....

o35.5 atl./det.
w.virginia-7

i read about a system pertaing to a team (atlanta) that is coming off a home favorite su loss by 3 or less points to a division opponent & they scored 21 or more points in that game & are playing in this game a non-division opponent (detroit).....this system is 21-2 over.....however, not sure how many years back it goes.....

i also read that under rodriguez, w.virginia is 16-4 ats in conference games when not favored by 14 points or more.

good luck...

i'll also post this in the nfl forum...

 

[AR182]

i can't believe how inept the lions are....they're pretty pathetic....

friday will play....

2*u51 ark./lsu...


good luck.

 

[gardenweasel]

for fun...9 point teasers.....which are usually the worst thing you can play in college football...

west va(that`s in)/colorado/maryland....

and substitute kansas for mayland...in the second....or maybe make a 4 teamer...

i got colorado early on at -14(-120)....i think they should cover it..nebraska appears to have regressed...colorado has been very consistant in boulder...

g.l.,bro...

 

[AR182]

thanks gw...good luck also....

i said it last week & will say it again...i'm due for a losing week....

for saturday....all for 2*.....

kansas+3....

kan. needs this game to become bowl eligible....before getting blown out by texas last week, kan.was allowing less than 2 ypc.....which,imo will make it tough for iowa st.to move the ball....kan.is 5-0 at home this year & 2 of their wins were over teams that beat iowa st...here is an angle that supports this play....teams that are at .500 entering their final regular season game are 47-21 ats(68%) at home since 1980.........this is a dog who can win this game su....

georgia-3(120)........

last week g.t.pulled a major upset over miami...because of that there is a good chance they will be flat for this game...here is an angle that supports this play...teams that win su as a dd road dog are 47-82-3 ats (36%) at home the next week against equal or better opponent (ie..when favored by 3 points or less or getting points)....also g.t. has scored 17 or less in 5 of their last 7 games...

stanford+18(120)......

stanford is playing to become bowl eligible....the same angle that applies to kansas also applies to stanford...teams that are at .500 entering their final regular season game are 47-21 ats(68%) at home since 1980.........& that record is 15-1 ats(93.7%) if they are coming off a bad loss (su & ats loss)....imo, stanford should be able to move the ball 7 keep it within the number against a very ordinary n.d.defense.....

kentucky +10....

tenn. is 0-12 ats in their last 12 games as a favorite & 0-6 ats this year.....kentucky is 5-0 ats in their last 5 home games....tenn.hasn't gained more than 378 yds.in conference play this year & is averaging a little over 17 points per game...i think kentucky beats a demoralized tenn. team........

e.carolina +7 (130).....

won with e.c. last week & will take them again this week because i think that they are an up & coming team that is starting to get a balanced offensive attack....they also rank #11 in pass defense..uab is 4-10 ats as a favorite in conference play the last 4 years, including 1-4 ats this year...e.car.is 6-2 ats as a dog this year....this is another dog who could win...


good luck..

 

[AR182]

hit the under in the lsu game...

here are a few more plays for saturday...all for 2*..

miami -17(120)....

i see alot of good cappers picking virginia in this game....i may be wrong but i don't see it.....if miami wins & vt loses then miami will be in the acc championship game....what i think is important is that this game is 3.5 hours before vt game.....so miami needs this game to possibly play in the championship game....virginia already is bowl eligible...here is something that is interesting....miami is giving up 11 points per game this year.....in the last few years, virginia is 0-20 ats, on the road when scoring less than 17 points...

conn.+8.....

2 reasons why i like conn. is that they have had 2 full weeks to prepare for this game & they have their starting qb back...they also have the # 8th ranked defense in the nation that held pitt. to their season low of 192 total yards...also the so. fla. qb has been held below 100 yp in 5 of 9 games...i think so. fla.could be looking past this game for their big game next week vs. w. virginia....

lou. tech.+7.....

i like the home dog off a bye week ,having a better defense, & seeking triple revenge..boise st. is allowing 33 points per game on the road this year & is 3-7 ats in their last 10 road games...

v.t.-23....

if the miami game plays out like i think then v.t. will need this game to qualify for the acc championship.....n.car. averages about 19 points per game this year, while v.t. gives up about 11 points per game...v.t. is 15-3 ats in their last 18 games where they hold the opposition to 20 points or less....n.car. has lost their last 2 road games by a combined score of 103-30....vt should wear nc down....

good luck...

 

[MrChristo]

miami -17(120)....

i see alot of good cappers picking virginia in this game....i may be wrong but i don't see it.....if miami wins & vt loses then miami will be in the acc championship game....what i think is important is that this game is 3.5 hours before vt game.....so miami needs this game to possibly play in the championship game....virginia already is bowl eligible...here is something that is interesting....miami is giving up 11 points per game this year.....in the last few years, virginia is 0-20 ats, on the road when scoring less than 17 points...

.

I know you're into your systems AR, so here's one on Virginia...

Conference underdogs of more than 4 points, off a home game in which they allowed 40+ points, but less than 21 in each of their 3 before that, are 12-0 (+7.6) v. opponents not off a non-conf home upset win.

Basically it says that last week's defensive break down was an aboration, and they will look to hit back this week.

It's 1-0 this season, with SDST losing by 3 to TCU as home +6 dogs.

Good luck on the rest! :mj14:

 

[bombercoops]

Was looking at La tech also AR. Boise st. were my cash cow last year but have been a good go-against team on the road this year! La Tech may have enough in the tank to get the upset here today. Joining you small here AR.

 

[AM2kidz]

Hey AR182 Awesome year Bro... Been following your picks now for years. Keep up the good work... I like most of your picks today also... I'm on the other side of the UCon game... I feel USF can smell a BCS possible bid which is unheard of for a team in the Big East for the first time. It could happen if they win out. Hope their not looking ahead to WV. Keep up the good work and best of luck. Am2kidz...

 

[AR182]

thanks for the props, guys...i really appreciate it...

mr.christo...

thanks for pointing that system out to me....i get a newsletter that pointed that out....i read other systems that also point to a virginia win... i'm just looking for miami to bounce back from that g.t. loss & it fits a numerical system that i use....if it looses it looses....

good luck.

 

[Cabo]

Great job !! Like a few of those myself today. GL ..Cabo... :clap:

 

[AR182]

thanks cabo...appreciate it...

i took kansas +4(120), instead of 3.....see this game decided by a fg either way....

the rest of my plays for today....all for 2*

ul laf.+3

u 49 fla/fla. st.

fresno st.-14 (130).....even though fsu has accepted a bowl invite....their pre-season goal was to win their conference...a win gets it done..plus they have a big edge in talent..

u 53 ok/ok. st.

houston-15(120)

ark. st...ml (140)

o 48 memphis/marshall

that should keep me busy today(lol).

good luck.

 

[Clem D]

Al your college threads are a must read for all college football bettors!!

 

[IX_Bender]

Good luck in your card today and with the contest.

 

[trolln4walii]

Continued success to you AR. Keep up the great work. Thanks once again for all the great info :mj14:

 

[gardenweasel]

lord...i didn`t expect colorado to fold like that....whew...that one hurt a bit...embarrassing..

keep it going,ar....