plays for 11/25-11/29

[AR182]

n. mex. st + points---nms is actually better than their record indicates as they are outgaining the opposition by 50+ yards/game. nt has had a tendency to play down to poor competition on the road this year. also the Aggies are 3-0 as a home dog the last 3 years.

am hoping the line will go up, so i will wait to near game time to put my wager in.


good luck

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Nice work buddy! You got mail!

HORNS

 

[gardenweasel]

good job,ar

good job,ar

keep it going..

 

[AR182]

turkey night play:

i'm posting this play in case i'm not near a computer later in the day.

miss.st.+points--miss. may be flat after losing their chance at a sec west title with last weeks loss to lsu. it may be tough for them to get up for miss. st., who has lost 5 straight games by 25 or more points. ole miss. is 5-17 ats as a double digit favorite against losing teams.

good luck & enjoy your day.

 

[AR182]

my turkey play on miss. st. turned out to be a turkey.

i'm posting a friday morning play now because i will be out in the early morning & will be home after the game starts.

i really like the:

under 55 (120) lou/cin--i think cin. defense will slow louisville down enough for them to score about 24 points & since cin. has a rather simple offense, i feel louisville could hold them to score about 20 points.
a few trends that support this play:

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (LOUISVILLE) - solid team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after allowing 37 points or more last game.
(33-10 over the last 10 seasons.) (76.7%)

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (LOUISVILLE) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 37 points or more last game.
(47-23 since 1992.) (67.1%).

cincinnati is 21-8 (72%) under in home games since 1992.

good luck

 

[AR182]

wake forest + points---

last year md. handily beat wf 32-14, but that was after wake accepted a bowl game & didn't have much motivation for that game. this year md. has accepted a gator bowl bid, & after their dramatic victory last week vs ncst., i don't see md.playing at their best.

in looking into this game, i noticed that on the road, maryland turns the ball over at a rather poor rate of 2.6 times a game while forcing only 1.2 times a game, which is the amount that wake turns the ball over at home.

at home wake has a pretty good yppt rate of 12.6 on offense, while their defense yields 17.7 yppt. on the road maryland's rate is 17.7 yppt on offense & 16.5 on defense.

wake is 8-1-2 ats as a home dog off a su/ats loss & 3-1 ats in a revenger roll under grobe.

md. is 1-4 ats on the road this year & the home team is 8-2 in maryland games.

i think that the line is off because of wake's poor showing in their last game vs. conn. as a favorite & md's dramatic come from behind win last week. wake had last week off & had a chance to re-focus on today's game with a chance for a bowl bid with a win.

i think this game goes to the wire & will take the points.

good luck