Pocono offers deja vu race handicapping
NASCAR continues its march towards the Chase when it travels to Pocono Raceway again on Sunday for the Pennsylvania 500. If it seems like the circuit was just at Pocono, well, that?s because it was, less than two months ago. That figures to bode well for series leader Tony Stewart, who won the June race here, and comes in as the designated favorite at 4/1 odds. (Update- Stewart crashed his car Saturday and will start at the back of the field) A series sweep at Pocono is not uncommon, as the only real difference between this race and the recent one figures to be that the track has heated up over the course of the summer. In addition, teams often turn to the same setups they used at the Brickyard the prior week in getting ready for this race, as the track boast similar characteristics. That should bode well for Jimmie Johnson, last week?s winner at Indy. Not surprisingly, he is an expected frontrunner again, listed at 5/1.
Besides Stewart, the other drivers that enjoyed big days at Pocono in June were Carl Edwards, David Reutimann, Jeff Gordon, and Ryan Newman, the rest of the Top 5. Edwards (7/1) really was the man to beat, leading 103 laps before coming up short in the fuel game with Stewart. Despite finishing second, Pocono has been a great track for Edwards with two wins, four top-fives and five top-10s in nine starts. Edwards doesn't qualify well at Pocono with an average start of 24.3 but he works his way to the front leading at least a lap in six of the nine events. Reutimann?s 3rd place finish was the best of his career at this track, shaking off an average of 32.0 prior. He is listed at 25/1 to win on Sunday. Gordon (7/1) boasts four wins, 16 Top 5?s and 23 Top 10?s in 33 prior starts at Pocono. For Newman (18/1), in 15 starts, he has two DNFs and five finishes of 18th or worse. When Newman is on at Pocono though, he is really on, with a win, six top-fives and seven top-10s.
Other drivers to watch out for based on past success in Long Pond, PA. are Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch, and Kasey Kahne. Hamlin (10/1) owns one of the recent season sweeps at Pocono, that coming in 2006. In all, he boasts a career average finish of 10.7 with four Top 5?s in seven starts. He also leads the circuit with 300 laps led in that span. Kurt Busch (22/1) is next in that stat, with 217, but his numbers are marginally less elsewhere. Kahne (18/1) won the June race here last season, and is typically known to run out front at this track.
Some of the names of drivers not mentioned to this point that have to be given consideration are Mark Martin (10/1), Greg Biffle (15/1), Juan Montoya (18/1), and Brian Vickers (30/1). Between the four, there is not even a single win in 74 career starts, but keep in mind what I indicated earlier about the similar setups in the cars between Pocono and Indy. Those four drivers were among the top cars at the Brickyard last week and seem to be hitting their stride in 2009. In fact, Montoya will probably be coming to Pocono with a chip on his shoulder after falling short Sunday. He dominated the race by leading for over 130 laps but was assessed a late pit road speeding penalty and finished outside the Top 10. Of course, don?t write off Kyle Busch either. He is capable of winning any race at any time, and despite recent struggles, oddsmakers still consider him a viable threat at 12/1.
With just six races to go till the cutoff for the Chase, Stewart continues to lead the points standings by a wide margin, 192 points. He has hit his customary summer stride. Jimmie Johnson is in second and Jeff Gordon is 15-points back of Johnson. Those three are the only drivers in contention to win the regular season points race. No one else is currently within 446 points of the top. The drama goes back from 4th through 16th, where 13 Chase contenders are separated by a margin of 330 points. Obviously it is getting late for the guys outside of the Top 12, currently David Reutimann, Kyle Busch, Brian Vickers, and Clint Bowyer. They need to make up ground in the next month while those in 4th thru 12th try to hold their positions.
The last thing any of the contending drivers need at this point is to encounter trouble on the track in any given race. Keep that in mind, as many of the Chase contenders will simply be ?point racing? during the month of August, not going for wins quite as hard while hoping to avoid the dreaded DNF. Pocono is the type of track where most DNF?s are caused by equipment problems, such as blown motors, not wrecks. This is a big facility where cars get spaced out significantly by virtue of horsepower. Trying to push that envelope too far can expire a motor quickly. Most Crew Chiefs know this, and many of them choose to play the track positioning game, opting to make pit strategy moves while sacrificing engine strength.
NASCAR continues its march towards the Chase when it travels to Pocono Raceway again on Sunday for the Pennsylvania 500. If it seems like the circuit was just at Pocono, well, that?s because it was, less than two months ago. That figures to bode well for series leader Tony Stewart, who won the June race here, and comes in as the designated favorite at 4/1 odds. (Update- Stewart crashed his car Saturday and will start at the back of the field) A series sweep at Pocono is not uncommon, as the only real difference between this race and the recent one figures to be that the track has heated up over the course of the summer. In addition, teams often turn to the same setups they used at the Brickyard the prior week in getting ready for this race, as the track boast similar characteristics. That should bode well for Jimmie Johnson, last week?s winner at Indy. Not surprisingly, he is an expected frontrunner again, listed at 5/1.
Besides Stewart, the other drivers that enjoyed big days at Pocono in June were Carl Edwards, David Reutimann, Jeff Gordon, and Ryan Newman, the rest of the Top 5. Edwards (7/1) really was the man to beat, leading 103 laps before coming up short in the fuel game with Stewart. Despite finishing second, Pocono has been a great track for Edwards with two wins, four top-fives and five top-10s in nine starts. Edwards doesn't qualify well at Pocono with an average start of 24.3 but he works his way to the front leading at least a lap in six of the nine events. Reutimann?s 3rd place finish was the best of his career at this track, shaking off an average of 32.0 prior. He is listed at 25/1 to win on Sunday. Gordon (7/1) boasts four wins, 16 Top 5?s and 23 Top 10?s in 33 prior starts at Pocono. For Newman (18/1), in 15 starts, he has two DNFs and five finishes of 18th or worse. When Newman is on at Pocono though, he is really on, with a win, six top-fives and seven top-10s.
Other drivers to watch out for based on past success in Long Pond, PA. are Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch, and Kasey Kahne. Hamlin (10/1) owns one of the recent season sweeps at Pocono, that coming in 2006. In all, he boasts a career average finish of 10.7 with four Top 5?s in seven starts. He also leads the circuit with 300 laps led in that span. Kurt Busch (22/1) is next in that stat, with 217, but his numbers are marginally less elsewhere. Kahne (18/1) won the June race here last season, and is typically known to run out front at this track.
Some of the names of drivers not mentioned to this point that have to be given consideration are Mark Martin (10/1), Greg Biffle (15/1), Juan Montoya (18/1), and Brian Vickers (30/1). Between the four, there is not even a single win in 74 career starts, but keep in mind what I indicated earlier about the similar setups in the cars between Pocono and Indy. Those four drivers were among the top cars at the Brickyard last week and seem to be hitting their stride in 2009. In fact, Montoya will probably be coming to Pocono with a chip on his shoulder after falling short Sunday. He dominated the race by leading for over 130 laps but was assessed a late pit road speeding penalty and finished outside the Top 10. Of course, don?t write off Kyle Busch either. He is capable of winning any race at any time, and despite recent struggles, oddsmakers still consider him a viable threat at 12/1.
With just six races to go till the cutoff for the Chase, Stewart continues to lead the points standings by a wide margin, 192 points. He has hit his customary summer stride. Jimmie Johnson is in second and Jeff Gordon is 15-points back of Johnson. Those three are the only drivers in contention to win the regular season points race. No one else is currently within 446 points of the top. The drama goes back from 4th through 16th, where 13 Chase contenders are separated by a margin of 330 points. Obviously it is getting late for the guys outside of the Top 12, currently David Reutimann, Kyle Busch, Brian Vickers, and Clint Bowyer. They need to make up ground in the next month while those in 4th thru 12th try to hold their positions.
The last thing any of the contending drivers need at this point is to encounter trouble on the track in any given race. Keep that in mind, as many of the Chase contenders will simply be ?point racing? during the month of August, not going for wins quite as hard while hoping to avoid the dreaded DNF. Pocono is the type of track where most DNF?s are caused by equipment problems, such as blown motors, not wrecks. This is a big facility where cars get spaced out significantly by virtue of horsepower. Trying to push that envelope too far can expire a motor quickly. Most Crew Chiefs know this, and many of them choose to play the track positioning game, opting to make pit strategy moves while sacrificing engine strength.
