Nova Report
The 22-6 Villanova Wildcats are in NY City to play the #15 22-6 St Johns Red Storm. St John’s is -7.5/147.5. Tip from Madison Square Garden is at 8:00 pm eastern on Fox.
By now, most College Basketball fans know that UCONN humbled the Red Storm on Wednesday 72-40. The Red Storm shot 19.8% for the game, 7% in the second half when they went scoreless for 17:28 and missed their last 24 shots. Villanova earned a hard fought 9 point win over Butler that same day. The opening line of -5.5 was immediately raised to -7.5 as conventional wisdom is St John’s will take out their frustration on the Wildcats. In their previous match on January 17th, St John’s won at Villanova 86-79 as the’Cats had no answer for the Red Storm’s front line of Ejiofor, Hopkins and Mitchell.
The Villanova faithful are not believing the Wildcats have a prayer this evening. Of course, they are hoping against hope but expectations are low. If you take the situation out of the game and look at the numbers, the line is inflated. Of course, it doesn’t mean Nova will cover but its a statistical edge.
Pitino will have the Red Storm ferociously guarding the perimeter where Nova’s offense lives. He’ll have his front line pound it inside to draw fouls against Brennan and Hodges (Nova’s rebounders). Villanova’s guards (Lewis and Lindsay) are quicker than Jackson and Darling of St John’s. They need to drive and kick it back to the Wildcat 3 point shooters. Needless to say, Villanova will have to be at their rebounding best to stay in this one.
What will happen? One scenario is the conventional wisdom is correct and St John’s will dominate from beginning to end. One scenario is Nova will be knocking in 3’s and neutralize the Red Storm’s 2 point shooting barrage. My guess is Coach Pitino will just say forget the last game, play Red Storm basketball, defend, rebound and live in the paint offensively. Villanova will try to win the game from deep. When possible, have their guards go the hoop to draw fouls. It’s probably going to be closer than thought.
Nova Pick: 5 point teaser Villanova+12.5/Over 142.5
Nova Pick Record: 14-13-1