COLORADO STATE vs. NAVY
San Diego is home to the largest contingent of sailors in the country which makes the cross country trip a little easier for the Midshipmen to deal with. You can be sure that the locals will be out in force for this one as the Navy football team has given this branch of the service something to be proud of in recent years. Since the arrival of Paul Johnson as Navy?s head coach four years ago, they are 28-14 against the oddsmaker?s number so this is an opportunity for those stationed at the local Naval base to show some gratitude. This venue is a great fit for the Middies and they should play with added enthusiasm in front of their own.
Colorado State has a fairly potent passing attack led by QB Justin Holland and he gets some nice balance from bruiser RB Kyle Bell who ran for more than 1,100 yards this season. The problem as I see it is that in his two years as a starter, Holland has nearly as many interceptions (25) as touchdown passes (26) including 15 picks this year. Although CSU ended their season at 6-5, their opponents actually outscored them by an average of 26-29. The only reason they were invited to this bowl is because no one else in the Mountain West qualified, and if not for a 75 yard punt return for a touchdown in the final minute of their last game against UNLV, they would not even be eligible. Prior to the last chance comeback against the Rebels, the Rams dropped games to TCU and San Diego State by scores of 6-33 and 10-30 respectively. Navy beat a fairly equivalent Mountain West team last bowl season in a 34-19 win over New Mexico that brought a much tougher rushing defense to the game than the Rams will.
Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team and that is what Colorado State?s defensive unit will have to gameplan against tonight if they are to win this one. Unfortunately, the Ram?s run defense ranks 104th in the country having allowing 200.6 yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry. Not good news for the Rams considering that Navy has the No. 1 rushing offense in the nation with 305.9 yards per game and has topped 200 yards in every contest. Colorado State was outrushed in every game but one this season and allowed at least 150 in every one of their last eight games. Over the last four seasons, when the Middies rush for at least 150 yards and are favored by less than eight points, they are a staggering 19-4 ATS. That spells value to me and I?m all over it.
The Verdict: NAVY (-3)
San Diego is home to the largest contingent of sailors in the country which makes the cross country trip a little easier for the Midshipmen to deal with. You can be sure that the locals will be out in force for this one as the Navy football team has given this branch of the service something to be proud of in recent years. Since the arrival of Paul Johnson as Navy?s head coach four years ago, they are 28-14 against the oddsmaker?s number so this is an opportunity for those stationed at the local Naval base to show some gratitude. This venue is a great fit for the Middies and they should play with added enthusiasm in front of their own.
Colorado State has a fairly potent passing attack led by QB Justin Holland and he gets some nice balance from bruiser RB Kyle Bell who ran for more than 1,100 yards this season. The problem as I see it is that in his two years as a starter, Holland has nearly as many interceptions (25) as touchdown passes (26) including 15 picks this year. Although CSU ended their season at 6-5, their opponents actually outscored them by an average of 26-29. The only reason they were invited to this bowl is because no one else in the Mountain West qualified, and if not for a 75 yard punt return for a touchdown in the final minute of their last game against UNLV, they would not even be eligible. Prior to the last chance comeback against the Rebels, the Rams dropped games to TCU and San Diego State by scores of 6-33 and 10-30 respectively. Navy beat a fairly equivalent Mountain West team last bowl season in a 34-19 win over New Mexico that brought a much tougher rushing defense to the game than the Rams will.
Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team and that is what Colorado State?s defensive unit will have to gameplan against tonight if they are to win this one. Unfortunately, the Ram?s run defense ranks 104th in the country having allowing 200.6 yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry. Not good news for the Rams considering that Navy has the No. 1 rushing offense in the nation with 305.9 yards per game and has topped 200 yards in every contest. Colorado State was outrushed in every game but one this season and allowed at least 150 in every one of their last eight games. Over the last four seasons, when the Middies rush for at least 150 yards and are favored by less than eight points, they are a staggering 19-4 ATS. That spells value to me and I?m all over it.
The Verdict: NAVY (-3)
