I was in 7 leagues last season, made the playoffs in 6, Won 1 championship and four third place wins, so I did come out ahead but was a little disappointed considering all my teams won in the first round only having all but one lose in the second round but it was fun season. I wanted to write something about this season while it is fresh in my mind to look back to going into next year's draft. I know fatdaddycool is going to want to get his hands on this to beat me to the punch and understand why I am so good. :mj07: Actually I am at work and my client is sound asleep thankfully and I really need to kill the time.
This past season fantasy owners who had the first few picks failed miserably as injuries piled up. I think every league I was in seen McCaffrey and Barkley go 1 and 2 and many also had Zeke 3 or 4 and he didn't do very well after Dak was hurt, also owners took Lamar Jackson very early and by the time he produced their teams were often in the cellar unless they took Aaron Rodgers late. Fantasy can be a crap shoot but I am going to instill these philosophies in next year's draft.
1. I am not taking a quarterback until after round 5 and probably not til round 8 or 9, sometimes you have to have a feel for your team but last year Jackson was the first QB off the board and the year before it was Mahomes and both did not live up to their draft position. You can get good QB production and you need to be drafting the other skilled positions. I will say I will be looking at Dak Prescott, if he comes back early this guy is going to put up huge numbers, He has great receiving weapons and a poor defense that I don't think will improve drastically, before his injury he was the number one fantasy QB.
2. I'm taking backs right away unless I draft late first round and Kelce is on the board but I'll get to that later. What do you do about Barkley and McCaffrey? Do you stick your neck out and take them 1 or 2? Not me, I think I'm going back to Dalvin Cook as my number one back because I think the Vikings are going to be much better and I think they will improve the offensive line even more. I know he has injury history. I would also target Johnathan Taylor from Indy and Cam Akers from the Rams, these guys can do it all, run inside, run outside and catch the ball. I WILL NOT DRAFT Zeke Elliott, I think his days are done, I will not draft Joe Mixon, never ever again and I will not draft Kenyan Drake, just don't do it, save yourself the headache and don't draft those guys and I think I am going to stay away from Kamara unless he really slides. New Orleans is going to go through a transformation and be interesting to see who goes.
3. Back to Travis Kelce, he is a big game changer because he gives you such a edge at Tight End over the other teams. he maybe worth a first round pick but I would definitely grab him in the second round. I don't know if Waller is worth a second round pick, maybe a third? If I don't get kelce I probably wouldn't draft a TE til late and I should have a good list by next fall.
4. Every year there seems to be a group of receivers who fall that put up explosive numbers. This past season I was getting DK Metcalf in the fourth round and loving it, also AJ Brown was sliding to the 5th. I think the receivers I am going to target round 3 - 5 are Justin Jefferson, Cee Dee Lamb, Cooper Kupp.. Cooper Kupp will have a big year with Stafford. I shouldn't throw this out there cause Fatdaddycool is a big Bears fan but the sleeper you can get is Bears WR Darnell Mooney, he was open a lot last year but you know Mitch was awful limiting this guys production.
5. Other players to avoid
Julio Jones - It's over, he may have a good game or two but you will be having the headache of is he playing or isn't he and most likely he won't be. Let somebody else take him in round 2 or 3.
Chris Carson - See Julio Jones
Joe Mixon - The guy is good but he's another injury prone player and top it off he plays for the Bengals
Zeke Elliott - I could be wrong about him but I think he's done. Someone will take him ahead of Akers and that will be welcomed by me.
6. Players not to draft but target as trades. I would not draft Chris Godwin or Mike Evans, both are excellent receivers but both will be injured at some point during the year, assuming they don't have serious injury they maybe guys you can acquire mid season at a discount for your playoff run. My bench is very good (most of the time) and I will have a thread about building your bench later but anyway these are the guys you can get good value for and put you over the top, Teams will be desperate to win and will trade them away for starting less talented players
7. Don't trade a lot of capital for players especially running backs who are injured. I know I just said to trade for Evans and Godwin but you aren't going to be trading tons of value. Last year teams especially teams who were shoe in for the playoffs were trading a slew to get McCaffrey for their playoff run and guess what his return was short lived. I know teams who slit their own throat trading valuable bench players for McCaffrey then run thin later in the season when their starters went down. I had McCaffrey and made the mistake of not trading him what was a fair offer thinking I needed him to win the league.
Well my client is waking up now but maybe I will add a little more to this over the next weeks to months.
This past season fantasy owners who had the first few picks failed miserably as injuries piled up. I think every league I was in seen McCaffrey and Barkley go 1 and 2 and many also had Zeke 3 or 4 and he didn't do very well after Dak was hurt, also owners took Lamar Jackson very early and by the time he produced their teams were often in the cellar unless they took Aaron Rodgers late. Fantasy can be a crap shoot but I am going to instill these philosophies in next year's draft.
1. I am not taking a quarterback until after round 5 and probably not til round 8 or 9, sometimes you have to have a feel for your team but last year Jackson was the first QB off the board and the year before it was Mahomes and both did not live up to their draft position. You can get good QB production and you need to be drafting the other skilled positions. I will say I will be looking at Dak Prescott, if he comes back early this guy is going to put up huge numbers, He has great receiving weapons and a poor defense that I don't think will improve drastically, before his injury he was the number one fantasy QB.
2. I'm taking backs right away unless I draft late first round and Kelce is on the board but I'll get to that later. What do you do about Barkley and McCaffrey? Do you stick your neck out and take them 1 or 2? Not me, I think I'm going back to Dalvin Cook as my number one back because I think the Vikings are going to be much better and I think they will improve the offensive line even more. I know he has injury history. I would also target Johnathan Taylor from Indy and Cam Akers from the Rams, these guys can do it all, run inside, run outside and catch the ball. I WILL NOT DRAFT Zeke Elliott, I think his days are done, I will not draft Joe Mixon, never ever again and I will not draft Kenyan Drake, just don't do it, save yourself the headache and don't draft those guys and I think I am going to stay away from Kamara unless he really slides. New Orleans is going to go through a transformation and be interesting to see who goes.
3. Back to Travis Kelce, he is a big game changer because he gives you such a edge at Tight End over the other teams. he maybe worth a first round pick but I would definitely grab him in the second round. I don't know if Waller is worth a second round pick, maybe a third? If I don't get kelce I probably wouldn't draft a TE til late and I should have a good list by next fall.
4. Every year there seems to be a group of receivers who fall that put up explosive numbers. This past season I was getting DK Metcalf in the fourth round and loving it, also AJ Brown was sliding to the 5th. I think the receivers I am going to target round 3 - 5 are Justin Jefferson, Cee Dee Lamb, Cooper Kupp.. Cooper Kupp will have a big year with Stafford. I shouldn't throw this out there cause Fatdaddycool is a big Bears fan but the sleeper you can get is Bears WR Darnell Mooney, he was open a lot last year but you know Mitch was awful limiting this guys production.
5. Other players to avoid
Julio Jones - It's over, he may have a good game or two but you will be having the headache of is he playing or isn't he and most likely he won't be. Let somebody else take him in round 2 or 3.
Chris Carson - See Julio Jones
Joe Mixon - The guy is good but he's another injury prone player and top it off he plays for the Bengals
Zeke Elliott - I could be wrong about him but I think he's done. Someone will take him ahead of Akers and that will be welcomed by me.
6. Players not to draft but target as trades. I would not draft Chris Godwin or Mike Evans, both are excellent receivers but both will be injured at some point during the year, assuming they don't have serious injury they maybe guys you can acquire mid season at a discount for your playoff run. My bench is very good (most of the time) and I will have a thread about building your bench later but anyway these are the guys you can get good value for and put you over the top, Teams will be desperate to win and will trade them away for starting less talented players
7. Don't trade a lot of capital for players especially running backs who are injured. I know I just said to trade for Evans and Godwin but you aren't going to be trading tons of value. Last year teams especially teams who were shoe in for the playoffs were trading a slew to get McCaffrey for their playoff run and guess what his return was short lived. I know teams who slit their own throat trading valuable bench players for McCaffrey then run thin later in the season when their starters went down. I had McCaffrey and made the mistake of not trading him what was a fair offer thinking I needed him to win the league.
Well my client is waking up now but maybe I will add a little more to this over the next weeks to months.
