Pointwise's Newsletter, et al.

[Mizzou]

POINTWISE COLLEGIATE & PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL PROPHECY

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
1* MEMPHIS over Alabama-B'ham
1* WISCONSIN over Penn State
2* OREGON over Utah
3* GEORGIA TECH over No Carolina St
4* NAVY over Air Force
4* MARYLAND over Clemson
5* SO CALIFORNIA over Arizona State
5* BOWLING GREEN over Central Mich

NFL KEY RELEASES
2* DALLAS over Arizona
3* CAROLINA over New Orleans
4* SAN DIEGO over Jacksonville
4* WASHINGTON over Philadelphia
5* MINNESOTA over Atlanta

Detailed Analysis of Top Rated College Key Selections

Wisconsin 27 - PENN STATE (HC) 17-(12:00)- Lion overland game is finally perking, but Nits were stung for at least 250 RYs in each of their 3 losses, thus check >300 RYs by UW (193 by Smith) vs Illini, which had held all 4 previous foes to under 127 RYs. Badgers had nearly a 14 minute time edge vs Illinois, & suffered 5 TOs in their only loss. And PSt's QB Mills is now hurting (ankle).

MEMPHIS (HC) 38 - Alabama-Birmingham 14-(2:00)- Tigers are only sloppy letdown showing at SoMiss from unbeaten ranks (6 TOs in that loss). Three more TDs for Wimprine LW, & RB Williams provides the balance (led ArkySt 35-6 at the half). Uab can't run, can't stop the run, & owes for LY's gift upset.

Oregon 31 - UTAH 20-(10:00 - espn2)- Both squads in revenge sandwiches. LW, Ducks had 9 TOs, while Utes had 6 takeaways. Even in that debacle, Oregon held potent WashSt to 15-of-35 passing, & just 2.1 ypr. Utah ran a fumble back 80 yds in final 1:33 for cover vs ColoSt, & has the balance behind Smith & Warfield, but Ducks should bounce back from worst loss in since '77.

North Carolina State 31 - GEORGIA TECH (HC) 30-(3:30)- Over 600 yds for that sizzling 'Pack "O" vs UNC, but have allowed 56 FDs & 1,055 yds past 2 wks. Rivers has topped 400 PYs twice in the early going, but that Tech "D" has been decent for the most part. Jackets barely escaped Vandy, but stay in this.

Detailed Analysis of Top Rated College Key Selections

DALLAS 34 - Arizona 17-(1:00)- The man is a genius. Check Dallas' win at the Jets. That's right, a 202-66 RY edge, on the heels of 149-98 & 107-53 advantages in their first 2 games, with Hambrick emerging as the "go-to' back. The only slight reservation here is the fact that the visitor has covered all 3 Cowboy games to date. However, the Cards are just the squad to end such a trend. 'Zona was stung for 34 FDs in its loss to the Rams, & has now allowed 38, 38, 49, 30, 37, 42, & 37 pts in its last 8 RGs! Parcells rarely lets a solid chalk situation get away, & won't here. It's the 'Boys in this contest.

CAROLINA 23 - New Orleans 10-(1:00)-The Panthers are yet anotherpleasant surprise, with their perfect 3-0 log, both SU & ATS. If the exhibition season is included, make it 7-0 both SU & ATS. Their defense has allowed no TDs since the 2nd quarter of their opener, & check 6 blocked kicks thus far. Offensively, they've gotten 142 & 153 RY efforts by Davis in their last 2 outings. Contrast that to the Saints having but one win, along with losses of 17, 15, & 34 pts. On the road, New Orleans has managed only 10 & 12 pts. The Panthers are 12-4 ATS after holding a foe below 15 pts, & are 7-1 ATS as division HFs.

 

[Mizzou]

RED SHEET

RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY

SUMMARY OF PLAYS:
89* TEXAS TECH
89* NORTHWESTERN
88* MEMPHIS
88* CALIFORNIA
88* NEBRASKA
88* DALLAS (NFL)

TEXAS TECH 52 - Texas A&M 31 - (3:30 EDT) -- Line opened at Texas Tech minus 6?, and is still minus 6?. No shock that the Raiders lead the nation in total offense (572 ypg; 38 ypg over #2), as well as passing offense (495 ypr; 115 ypg over #2). QB Symons has done the near impossible,by actually out-statting the brilliant Kingsbury. He leads the land in total "O" with 509 ypg, & has thrown for 586 & 661 PYs the past 2 weeks! No, the Raiders have not missed a beat offensively, from their scintillating squad of a year ago. The Aggies are also on the offensive rise, & with Franchione at the helm, & will be a force for years. But Tech owns this series, while the Aggies are still among worst dog plays. Buck revenge. RATING: TEXAS TECH 89

Minnesota 31 - NORTHWESTERN 30 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Minnesota minus 8?, and is now minus 10?. It is rare when a spread moves our way, but such is the case here. The Gophers are suddenly a "public" squad, off their super start, in which they've topped 40 pts in all but their trip to PennSt last week, while reaching 250 yds in all 5. As noted earlier in the week, Minny is off to its best start in 16 years. But despite those plaudits, this one sets up nicely for the Wildcats. Catching the Gophers in a PennSt/Michigan sandwich cannot be lightly discarded, & note that Northwestern dominated a suddenly respectable Kansas unit; out-stated AirForce; & piled up 522 yds in 12-pt cover at Minny last year. Dog series. RATING: NORTHWESTERN 89

MEMPHIS 40 - Alabama-Birmingham 14 - (2:00) -- Line opened at Memphis minus 11, and is now minus 9. Three weeks ago, we pegged the Tigers as a Superior Red Sheet Play, in their trip to SoMiss. Well, that one didn't pan out, as Memphis turned into a turnover machine, with 3interceptions, 3 fumbles, & an 87-yd Eagle punt return contributing heavily to the 23-6 loss. That marks the only misstep for the Tigers, who are still smarting over losing to the Blazers LY, thanks to a pair of Uab TDs on fumble recoveries. Birmingham is yet to cover, with their only SU win coming over hapless Baylor, by a narrow 5 pts. Blazers had last week off, but their lack of an overland game is glaring, & will pay the price for last 3 years. RATING: MEMPHIS 88

CALIFORNIA 27 - Oregon State 20 - (5:00) -- Line opened at Oregon St minus 2, and is now minus 1?. The Bears shocked the gridiron world, with last week's OT win over mighty Southern Cal, thereby snapping the Trojans' 11-game winning streak, the final 10 of which represented double digit triumphs. Statwise, Cal had edges in all categories, which is foreign to foes ot USC, which has posted some awesome box score edges since the start of the '02 season. With that success, many would figure that a letdown is automatic, with these Beavers taking full advantage. But the home team is 11-of-14 in OSt games, including an outright upset loss (9? pt ATS setback) in its only RG to date. Wrong team is favored. RATING: CALIFORNIA 88

NEBRASKA 45 - Troy State 10 - (1:30) -- Line opened at Nebraska minus 27?, and is still minus 27?. Just the opposite of the above game, where we bucked the letdown theory, in backing a team which pulled a major upset the previous week. In this one, we embrace the theory. In upsetting Marshall, the Trojans of Troy St actually caught the Herd in a perfect setup, namely having to travel after a pair of highly emotional contests, a home upset loss, & a road upset of KansasSt. Travelling to Lincoln, on the heels of that one, is pure poison. It only serves to alert the unbeaten 'Huskers, preventing any "look-ahead" to Missouri. Troy was destroyed by a combined 89-12 in its trips to KansSt & Minnesota. 'Nuff said. RATING: NEBRASKA 88

DALLAS 34 - Arizona 16 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Dallas minus 7?, and is still minus 7?. Carryover from earlier publication, with nothing occurring in the interim, which would lower its status. The 'Boys stumbled out of the gate, with that 2nd half collapse vs the Falcons, but have done themselves proud since, with upsets of both NY teams (10? &14 pt ******). And note that Dallas won its 2 preseason HGs by 34-6 & 52-23 scores. The Cowboys are in the mold of all Parcells outfits, & have dominated overland. Compare that to 'Zona failing to reach 100 RYs, with just 36 RYs in its embarrassment at StLouis. On the road, the Cards have been defenseless, & hardly figure to suddenly find a stop unit to contain the 'Boys. RATING: DALLAS 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87) : Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Texas, Akron -- NFL: Buffalo, Denver, & Tampa Bay

 

[Jaxx]

NORTHCOAST'S POWERSWEEP

UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK
NAVY +16 over AIR FORCE

NCAA KEY SELECTIONS:
4 Michigan over IOWA
3 Tennessee over AUBURN
3 WASH ST over Arizona
2 MARYLAND over Clemson
2 NEBRASKA over Troy St
2 Akron (+) over MIAMI (OH)

NFL KEY SELECTIONS:
4 CAROLINA over New Orleans
3 PHILADELPHIA over Washington
2 DALLAS over Arizona
2 KANSAS CITY over Denver

NFL TOTALS:
3 Lions/49ers Under 42'
3 Bengals/Bills Under 41'*
3 Cardinals/Cowboys Over 38
2 Redskins/Eagles Over 39'
2 Saints/Panthers Over 38*


THE GOLD SHEET

The Gold Sheet EXTRA!!!Technical Play of the Week
NC STATE over Georgia Tech
The Wolfpack stands a solid 14-7 vs. the spread away from Raleigh since HC Chuck Amato arrived in 2000, and also hasn?t dropped back-to-back games against the line since the 2001 campaign. Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets are just 4-9 vs. the line their last 13 as host.

SUMMARY OF NCAA KEY RELEASES:
MICHIGAN STATE by 25 over Indiana
AKRON Plus over Miami-Ohio
TEXAS TECH by 18 over Texas A&M

SUMMARY OF NFL KEY RELEASES:
N.Y. GIANTS by 10 over Miami
CLEVELAND by 3 over Pittsburgh
OVER 43 total points in the Detroit-San Francisco game

ANALYSIS OF KEY SELECTIONS

NY GIANTS 23 - Miami 13?Miami def. front will give the rebuilding N.Y. OL a few problems?for a while. But the greater versatility of the Giant offense? featuring inside & outside running, two speedy WRs & 1 terrific TE?will eventually win the day on home field (Dolphins 3-8 SU last 11 away). Once Travis Henry went down for Buffalo, Dolphin defense was able to zero in on Drew Bledsoe and pound with Ricky Williams (Miami had ball 40:50!). That trick won?t work here vs. Tiki, Kerry, Amani & Jeremy (and, of course, Ike). (96-NY Giants +7 17-7...SR: NY Giants 3-1)

OVER 43 Points SAN FRANCISCO 34 - Detroit 20?Steve Mariucci back in S.F., from whence he was somewhat surprisingly fired after LY. However, with a ?baby? QB learning on the fly, a usually minimal ground game, and a top receiver who is a rookie (Chas. Rodgers), can?t expect ?Mooch? to match points with Jeff Garcia (3 ints. last week!), Terrell Owens & buddies. Niners have been an unreliable favorite (1-9 last 10), but nearly all of that was Mariucci?s doing! Owens again ripping coaches for not getting the ball. Mooch (Detroit has lost 3 CBs) is hoping (praying?) the Niners don?t give it to him. offense rules this one. (01-SAN FRANCISCO -8 21-13...SR: San Francisco 31-27-1)

*Cleveland 23 - PITTSBURGH 20?These two engaged in a wild playoff shootout LY (Holcomb was at QB for Cleveland), which resulted in the third 3-point victory for Steelers over the Browns of the season! Browns love to play ?em close, with 12 of their 17 games LY decided in final minute or OT. Cleveland is 9-2 vs. spread last 11 games on the road! Most importantly, Pittsburgh defense proved vulnerable to a spread offense once against last week (Steve McNair hit 15 of 16). Whether it?s Couch or Holcomb at QB, Browns have the receivers to hurt host again. CABLE TV?ESPN

MICHIGAN STATE 38 - Indiana 13?Under enthusiastic guidance of HC John L. Smith, there?s less chance MSU will let down, considering earlier loss to La. Tech. Spartan defense is obviously vastly improved, allowing 1.7 ypc this season, and holding ND & Iowa to 1 TD each. Youthful Indiana has taken some attrition on offense and is just 1-8-1 last 10 vs. the points. MSU QB Smoker should & WR Shabaj slice up Hoosier 2ndary.

H Akron 30 - MIAMI-OHIO 38?Respect Miami-O QB Roethlisberger?s ability, but vet Akron QB Frye and his experienced crew can move the ball as well. Zip RB Hendry has 490 YR in his last 4 games, while Frye has completed 68% and averaged 333 YP this season. Frye hurt Miami 2ndary LY, and that unit has been vulnerable this season.

TEXAS TECH 45 - Texas A&M 27? TT has 1394 yds. of offense (1247 passing) last two games! Too bad Raiders had those pesky 7 TOs. A&M scoring 25 ppg, but Coach Fran?s defense (26 ppg allowed in 2nd H last 3 games) lacks the depth & playmakers of previous Aggie ?Wrecking Crews.? Not good that A&M (1-8 last 9 as road dog) gave up 5 TDP last week vs. Pittsburgh, considering Tech QB Symons has 15 TY.
Posts: 73 | Registered: September 04, 2003



PLAYBOOK BY MARK LAWRENCE

UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK:
NORTHWESTERN over Minnesota by 3

NCAA FOOTBALL KEY SELECTIONS
5* AUBURN over Tennessee by 14
4* Oregon St over CALIFORNIA by 6
3* FLORIDA over Mississippi by 24

NFL FOOTBALL KEY SELECTIONS
5* NEW ENGLAND over Tennessee by 13
4* Cleveland over PITTSBURGH by3
3* ATLANTA over Minnesota by 6

NFL TOTALS FOOTBALL KEY SELECTIONS
5* GIANTS UNDER
4* JAGUARS OVER
3* FALCONS OVER

UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK
NORTHWESTERN over Minnesota by 3
Ain?ft it funny how things change in such a short time. Two years ago on this field, Northwestern was a 13-point favorite against Minnesota. Now, a substantial home dog, the Wildcats fight for their life against the powerful attack of the Gophers. NU has been a pesky home underdog in Big Ten competition with 14 covers in its last 20 appearances in that role while Minnesota has lost SU 13 consecutive times in the second of BB road games. Wildcats gained 522 yards in a three-point road loss against the Gophers last year. With Minny off the Penn State win and looking dead ahead to mighty Michigan next week, we call for the upset here today!

5* BEST BET
AUBURN over Tennessee by 14
Yes, we realize that Casey Clausen is a perfect 9-0 SU on the road as the Volunteer QB and we also acknowledge the Vols are a dangerous road team when the price is right. Still, Auburn has a chip on its shoulder after losing its first two games and we feel they are comng to make a statement. Despite the 0-2 start, the Tigers have the talent to win the SEC West division and finish the season with 10 wins. The last time they met Tennessee (in '99) they were whitewashed 24-0 in Knoxville. With the Vols in off an OT win last week (overtime winners that take to the conference road are 39% ATS propositions) and looking ahead to a Georgia revenger next, we'll ride with Tommy Tigers in this redemtion-maker today.

4* BEST BET
Oregon St over CALIFORNIA by 6
California has the dubious distinction of being the worst team in the Pac Ten when favored and seeking revenge. The Bears have covered just two of their last 17 games in that role. Oregon State has cashed 10 of the last 14 against Cal and the Beavers are a rock solid 14-5 ATS in their last 19 tries as an underdog. In their last 27 Conference games, when playing off a SU underdog win, the Bears are 5-22 SU and 10-17 ATS, including nine straight losses. Again.

3* BEST BET
FLORIDA over Mississippi by 24
Another major revenge game finds the reeling Florida Gators in the Swamp waiting to get even with Ole Miss. Last year, Florida laid two TD?fs to the Rebels in Oxford and were sent home with a three-point loss, depite yeilding a mere 191 yards. If you?fre thinking about taking Eli Manning as a live dog here, think it through, as Florida is 46-5 SU in its last 51 games against league foes (no BB losses) and is a solid 15-2 ATS at home vs the SEC when not favored by 15 or more points. Remember, they're also playing off a previous home loss in the revered Swamp. Rebs were torched for 661 yards in the air. and are still down in the dumps off last minute revenge loss last week . Don?ft Miss the boat here.

5* BEST BET
NEW ENGLAND over Tennessee by 13
A courageous effort by a physically maimed Patriot team went for naught in Washington. On the scoreboard, that is. What that effort did do was instill the confidence in the Pats that they have enough players to get the job done. Tennessee?fs rout of Pittsburgh gives us extra line value, as Titans are 0-8 ATS as road favs of less than three points off a win. New England grabs the cash for the sixth time in last seven tries as a series host today.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Great stuff! Thanks for all the work!

HORNS

 

[TonyTT]

Thanks guys....a side note of interest...Playbook Colg 5 star is 5-0 so far this season.
gl,
TT