Post Turkey HSF & College Foot for 11/25 & 11/26

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Record To Date:

HSF Degen Plays: 42-36-2 (-1.8 units)
College Plays: 107-103-4 (-25.2 units)

Hope everyone survived the Turkey Day meal..... Onward!

HSF Plays for 11/25 & 11/26 *I have turned my attention to Michigan and Ford Field for the MHSAA State Championships. My goal is to turn a profit, however, the extra juice is a killer. Oh well, I like to dabble...

Tomorrow:

Div 8 (10 am start eastern)

Muskegon -13 over Ottawa Lake-Whiteford..... 2 units... WIN.. (Final..... Mus 35...White 6) *Have to be careful here as laying chalk in these championship games is a recipe for disaster. No doubt I could be wrong here, however, if I'm reading these two right, the difference here should be the Crusaders Defense, whose starters have only allowed 18 points all season. In addition, Muskegon is used to the venue as it has won 3 straight state titles. . The offense averages 45 points a game to go with that lights out D. The D is fast but not overly huge. It is a Senior dominant team which is nice to have in the playoffs. The two quarterback system Crusaders use has allowed Trenton Bordeaux and Cameron Martinez to combine to go 60 for 75 for 1,099 yards with 16 Tds.

Ottawa is also undefeated and should be respected as its O and D line are large and athletic. The offense hasn't scored less than 30 points in any of its 4 playoff games. RB Jesse Kiefer has 1,239 yards with 30 Tds.

Muskegon must account for Kiefer, and I think they will in going for their 4th State Championship winning comfortably.


Div 2 Final (1 pm eastern)

Walled Lake Western PK over Detroit Martin Luther King.. LOSS... (Final King 18..Walled 0). 1 unit.. *Walled Lake hasn't been to the state title game since 1999. Western has one loss on the year, however, it should be noted that the loss came by way of a forfeit, but only after the team won 41-14. Western has talent in all of the skill positions. It is led by QB Johnny Tracy (2,125 yards with 23 Tds) he headed to Michigan St. Also, Div 1 athletes at the WR positions.

King is the defending Div 2 state Champs. It held off last week's opponent by intercepting a pass on the final drive to outlast 14-7. King has a 4 star WR/CB Ambry Thomas. The team dedicated their season to their late coach who died of a heart attack over the summer. He had taken them to last years championship. King is young, and lost a half dozen Div 1 players from last year's title team. Soph QB Dequan Finn has stepped in passing for 2,140 yards with 34 tds. King does have an advantage in size as their line is bigger.

Just think there might be too much talent on Western side so I will make that my play.

Div 6

Glen Lake +9' over Lumen Christi Catholic... 2 units...LOSS (Final Lumen 26 Glen 14). *Glen Lake Jr QB has over 2,000 yards with 20 Tds, he is a dangerous dual threat. RB Nick Apsey and Peter Macke each average 9.5 yards per carry. The defense is stout. They haven't been to the state title since 1996.

Lumen Christi is a big fav in this contest. This is their first Div 6 state title appearance, however, this team was from Div 5 before the move, and that included 5 state titles at that level. Their HC Herb Brogan is in his 37th season. Christi RB Bo Bell has 2,428 yards with a school record of 33 Tds.

I think Glen Lake can keep Lumen Christi off balance with the dual threat QB. The defense will have to account for Bell. I'll take the points...

Back with some College picks a little later.

 

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Well they slipped some Illinois HSF games by me... Simply not enough time in the day to handicapping everything..

Some College plays.

1. Texas -3 over TCU..LOSS .. 3 units... *What the heck, I'm a sucker for a little "do one for the Gipper" approach

2. Washington St +7 over Washington..LOSS... . 4 units *The tendency is for those that suffer a little heartbreak tend to wallow in despair while the opponents lick their chops... Add on the hometown rivalry angle... And uh oh.

3. TULSA -23 Over Cincinnati...LOSS... 5 units.. *At first glance this looks like a lot of chalk. At 2nd glance, how will Cincinnati find the scoreboard. Tulsa should roll.

BOL

 

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Texas and Washington St....... Fuk u you bunch of two bit losers... Gutless!

Back to HSF plays...

Tonight:

*I feel better now after that rant.

**Charli gonna be lookin for a new job

 

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Centennial /St John Bosco Over 78...2 units..WIN..I actually have 2 units on Centennial +4' this morning,but just checked and it was +1' which is a no play imo...

Last year these two combined for 114 points and I expect more of the same tonight... Both teams are loaded and I have been a huge fan of Bosco all year. They have 2 losses to arguably the best 2 teams in the nation. LOSS to Gorman 35-20, and a loss to Mater Dei 26-21. Coming out of the Trinity League with 1 loss is quite the accomplishment as the League might be the toughest in the nation.

Centennial has 1 loss. That was to Florida State power IMG Academy 50-49. This team is deep and fast. It will score on Bosco.

It's a Public School vs Catholic grudge match. The Winner will more than likely end up playing Mater Dei for the Southern Large Schools championship.

Like I said, I expect a high scoring affair as Centennial Defense has gaps. Bosco will exploit that. Centennial hung 49 on IMG, so I expect it can do that with Bosco.

Good luck!

 

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Pretty sad state of affairs when you need a Degen HSF to upend a rough day on the gridiron....

Last score I saw was St John Bosco 28 Centennial 14..start of 3rd Q.

On to tomorrow....

Back we go to Ford Field..

Div 1 (10 am)... Detroit Cass Tech (13-0) vs Detroit Catholic Central (13-0)

Detroit Cass Tech +3' over DCC... 2 units...WIN.. (Final: Cass Tech 49 - CCHS 20). *What this boils down to is two undefeated teams who aren't strangers. The #1 Technicians vs #2 Shamrocks (I kid you not, these are the mascots that inspire fear on the gridiron) These two have hooked horns in before in the state championship.

Shamrock HC Tom Mach has been with this program 41 years, with 10 state championships notched on his belt while compiling an overall record of 376-96. Unfortunately, in their last 3 state title appearances they have gone home with the L, twice to Cass Tech. Granted this DCC team is better than the previous versions. The All Time series is tied at 2-2. They last met in 2013 semi final in which Techies won 28-6.

Both teams have their share of Div 1 athletes. Cass Tech features the local print Player of the Year in Donovan Peoples-Jones who plays WR, Kick Returns, and Punt Returns... He is a danger to take it to the house each time he touches the ball. Cass Tech has over a dozen Div 1 commits alone. They are lead by QB Rodney Hall who has 2,416 yards passing with 23 Tds.

The Shamrocks lost their dual threat QB Austin Brown (will not play).. I'm unsure how much the line has been affected by the news to this point. I'm simply making my play with the expectation that the Shamrocks won't find their clover. Give me the points with the better team imo.


Div 3 (4:30 pm).. Muskegon (12-1) vs Orchard Lake St Mary's (5-4)(yes that's a mouthful)

Orchard Lake St Mary's +9' over Muskegon..... 2 units...WIN... (Final: St Mary 29 - Muskegon 28). I unit in the Under 56'. *3's are wild in this game and I'm not talking about poker or jump shots. St Mary's is going for its 3rd straight state championship and the Big Reds are trying to end their 3 game losing streak in state championship games. Muskegon has been ranked #1 all season. The All time series Muskegon leads 2-1. They last met in 2014 Div 3 Finals and OLSM won 7-0.

Muskegon has 1 loss to an Illinois power 38-35. OLSM is the 2 time defending state Champs. The fact they qualified for the playoffs with a 5-4 record is somewhat miraculous. Still, it should be noted that 2 of their losses were to Div 1 Finalist Detroit Catholic Central. While Muskegon is the overwhelming fav, I think this musket loading team has spunk and can stay inside the number. St Mary's has a few Div 1 athletes anchoring the defense.

 

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96 points thus far in Bosco and Centennial game..... Wish I was there!

 

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Oh what the hell. The rest of Michigan HSF football tomorrow...

Div 7 (7 am) Pewamo-Westphalia (13-0) vs Detroit Loyola (11-2)

Loyola +1' over Westphalia..LOSS..(Final: West. 28 - is Loyola 14)..1 unit... Last year these two went at it in the semi finals during a snowy blizzard will Westphalia winning 30-0.The Pirates return to the title match after losing to Ishpemins in 2015. The Pirates have shut out 6 different opponents during the regular season. The All time series is tied 1-1.

The one to watch is Pirate RB Jared Smith who has over 2,500 yards rushing with 38 tds. Last year he set the state record with 3,250 yards with 53 Tds. He needs 292 yards to become the states career rushing leader. As of right now he is the 2nd most productive back in state history. No doubt, the Builders must game plan for Smith.

Loyola won the state title in 2014 with 2 losses. The Pirates must deal with tremendous lethal team speed of the Builders.


Div 5 (1:30 pm).. Menominee (12-1) vs Grand Rapids West Catholic (11-2)...

Menominee +8' over GRWC.... 2 units..LOSS.. (West Catholic 43 - and Minimee 7). *The Maroons have had their last 6 seasons end with a loss to West Catholic twice in the regionals, 3 times in the semi's, and once in the final. On the flip side, West Catholic launches its annual Groundhog Day for its 4th straight title. These two last met in 2015 Div 5 regional final GRWC won 24-14. Not sure who wins this one, however, the talent is fairly equal. So I'll take the points.

 

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Appears to be some value in some of the Illinois HSF championship games at Memorial Stadium...

Div 5A (7 am)

Vernon Hills Cougars (10-3) vs Peoria Lions (12-1)...

Peoria -7....WIN.. .2 units.... WIN... (Final: Peoria 62 - Vernon Hills 48) *Really like the Lions to cover this number. They run a Shotgun Read Option led by Jr QB Coran Taylor (2,864 yards of total offense with 34 Tds) Also, Jr RB Geno Hess has an eye popping 2,597 yards w/42 Tds. This is one of the states most Potent offenses and I can't imagine how a team prepares for this style of offense in a week. In addition, the Oline is massive and Vernon Hills defensive line will give up 4" and 73 lbs per man. Peoria is seeking its first State Title and this looks like the team to get it done.

6A (10 am)

Prairie Ridge (13-0) vs Springfield Sacred Heart-Griffin (13-0).....

Springfield +11' over Prairie Ridge...1 unit..LOSS... (Final: Prairie 48 - of Spring. 17)...*Prairie Ridge is good and has a state title. QB Jr Samson Evans has (1,870 yards w/38 Tds). Senior FB Manny Ebirim has 971 yards with 10 Tds. Evans runs the option and he picks up 9 ypc.

Sacred Heart HC Ken Leonard is in the Illinois Hall of Fame for his successful success years of coaching. His offenses put up big numbers behind Jr TB Tremayne Lee (2,108 yards w/32 Tds) and Senior QB Tim Brenneisen with 2,436 yards passing w/23 TDs. His Oline average 6'4" 279 lbs.

Both teams are capable of winning here so I'll take the generous points.

Back with other 2 games shortly..

 

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Peoria and Vernon in a shootout in 2nd quarter... 28-28 all...

College Today...

Temple TT over 40.. 3 units
Loss

Syracuse TT over 21..WIN ..4 units

West Virginia -7 over Iowa St.. 5 units WIN

Fresno St +3'...5 units..
WIN

Vanderbilt +8.....5 units
WIN

Good luck everyone!

 

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A couple of more Illinois HSF plays to chew on...

7A (1 pm) Plainsfield (North) (11-2) vs East St Louis (13-0)....

Plainsfield/East St Louis Under 45'...2 units.. WIN.. (Final: E St Louis 26 - Plain. 13). *Looks like a good spot to play the Under here as I expect a defensive masterpiece. Plainsfield won in OT last week 18-17. Just happens to be the first time the Tigers have won a playoff game. JR QB Brady Miller is having a good year with (1,868 yards w/20 Tds) He is aided by Senior RB Ty Hoosman (1,675 yards w/26 Tds). The defense is strong and experienced with a couple of Div 1 players.

East St Louis is looking to capture the schools 8th overall state title. The Flyers are led by Senior QB Rey Estes (going to Missouri) and 4 star Senior WR Jeff Thomas and Jr RB Jarrell Anderson (1,306 yards w/21 Tds.) They also have a experienced and aggressive D.

 

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Add Uno Mas Illinois Degen Special...


DIV 8A Loyola Academy Ramblers (13-0) vs Maine South Hawks (10-3)...

Loyola/Maine OVER 62...2 units..LOSS... (Final: Maine 27 - Loyola 17)...*Ramblers have been the states top ranked football team all season. They are chasing their their 2nd straight 8A state title this afternoon. Ramblers advanced last week with a 42-13 beat down, something this team is quite adept at as it is rarely tested. It all goes through the Senior QB Tommy Herion (2,115 yards w/18 TDs). His favorite target and friend is Senior WR David Terrell Jr. (55 catches for 886 yards w/7 TDs. If the name sounds familiar it's because his father played professional with the Chicago Bears. Jr has a chance to go over the 1,000 yard mark today, and if he does he will set the all time receiving record. He currently has a handful of Div II schools looking at him, although he is hoping that Boston College might come a calling. They are evidently interested which can't hurt this programs grasp at ineptitude. Jr has only 1 problem... He is 5'11" 175 lbs, which is keeping the big boys from calling. Loyola is on a 27 game winning streak. TE Jake Marwede has 41 receptions for 544 yards w/6 TDs. and has run for 14 TDs more, sometimes he lines up at QB when the team decides to go for trickeration or new wrinkles (BTW... He is going to Duke) Loyola also runs well behind Kyle Rock (a true football name) for 1,128 yards w/18 TDs. The O Line is strong and experienced, with several Div 1 athletes anchoring in the pit. The whole team is just about returning Seniors (they have been down this road before)

**Both teams met on the 2nd week with Loyola outlasting Maine 44-43.

Maine South also has the firepower to stay with the Ramblers. Senior QB Nick Leongas has an outstanding 2,787 yards with 27 TDs. He also has 1,040 yards rush w/11 more TDs. He is a scary dual threat QB. Joining him in the backfield is Jr RB Fotis Kokosioulis with 1,358 yards w/21 TDs. They run a spread offense and Leongas won't hesitate to pull the ball down and hit the open lanes. They have several Div 1 speedy receivers. In addition, they have a very good field goal kicker who is 12-16 this year.

This is an heated and intense rivalry. Both teams know each other and neither will be intimidated. This reminds me a little bit of the Bosco game last night. I'm thinking these two will light up the scoreboard in a carbon copy effort of earlier in the season. Loyola is favored by 11' which is way too high imo. Either way, I think both teams will pull out all the tricks and I'm hoping for a high scoring entertaining game.


***Talked myself into putting 2 units on Maine South +11'... WIN... .gl