pre-2008 ramblings

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Might add to this thread over the next week as I look into some things. I find that writing about some of this stuff helps me to analyze it better so maybe it will help me prepare, if nothing else.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Tampa Bay


Been looking into the Devil Rays possibilities for the season--the early season, at least. Don't laugh--they've been smoking so far in exhibition.

Starter Kazmir is a stud but he may miss a couple of starts to begin the year. Even when he returns, he may not provide much value depending on the opponent; books will price him high, as they began to do second half of last year. He did lead the AL in K's last year, for whatever that's worth. Just seems like a solid, young pitcher but I'll need to see a start or two after he returns before I can gauge whether or not he's in good shape.

Jackson, Hammel and Sonnanstine, as SP's, all appear to be garbage--I don't think I'd touch any of these 3 guys. Occasional decent starts from each of them but WAY too many pummelings mixed in there to warrant any consideration.

Garza I'm surprised that the Twins let escape. He appears to have a lot of talent though he didn't finish '07 that strong. Still, he could develop into something worthwhile. I think that he will certainly be affordable so I'll be anxious to see how he performs early on.

Shields looks like he might be a steal in the early going. Not sure how he'll be priced. He finished the year quite strong and was solid for most of the campaign. I can't see the 'Rays being priced too high in the early going--despite their strong spring--so James might be worth some early plays. He might be the opening day starter and a solid outting there might cost us for subsequent starts. Still, I'll have my eye on him for any good matchups.

Their bullpen was pretty horrid and this held for most of last season. Addition of Percival is hard to assess--he used to just dominate but that was a few years back. No other solid additions, here, so their bullpen may suck again. Might make some early season overs worthwhile in games started by Jackson, Hammel and Sonnanstine. Hammel might surprise but the other two have shown some consistency. Just my Jays seem to have trouble with Jackson but he was a dog most of the year, save for a stretch in August.

As for the offense, it's a little too early for me to say. They haven't put up huge number this spring--doing with a surprising bit of balance in their game. They've had a couple of pre-season injuries (Iwamura & Upton) but nothing too threatening--they should be ready to go within a week. A decent combination of power and speed. Not to mention reasonable defense. Last year they hit lefties considerably better than they hit righties; something to consider early on. They were crap at home, too, for some reason which is beyond me--I would think that might be a focus for them early on. If they are hitting successfully during week 1 then they might be a good play for the rest of April. I still can't imagine that they will compete in the division but that's not a very prophetic prediction, is it.

Well--had them on my mind due to their success this spring. Took a look at some other's evalutations to see what we might expect and this is what I'm thinking. Good prices on Shields and Garza in week 1 might be worth a shot. Kazmir is always worth a shot except in a few situations (seems to have trouble with the Jays and O's). As mentioned, I think that the other 3 SP's are trash so I'll look to fade (if affordable) or play some overs.

Probably won't cover each team before the season starts. Might tackle the others that are smokin' this spring. First couple of weeks are take-it-easy time, from my experience. I certainly won't touch anything expensive in the early going. Come to think of it--if I'm smart--I won't touch anything "expensive" all season. Maybe a gimme here or there.

Can't wait.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Will tackle one more possible spring training illusion before crashing (doing another brew--maybe two). The A's have the second best record after the 'Rays, up until now, so here's some thoughts.

Oakland

Blanton is solid and was so for most of '07--last half of the season he was especially solid. I have my doubts about his longevity, but in the right situations he might be worth some action. He was very solid at home and seemed to perform better against greater competition. I'm not a true believer, yet, and need to see some results first.

Harden is a stud. Apparently starting the year quite healthy, too. Injuries have been a problem but if he stays healthy then he might be a top-10 or top-20 starter in the bigs. I think I'll be tempted by some early-season value here, if it appears. Surely the books aren't that clued-out but you never know. This guy is solid.

Gaudin had a fine stretch mid-season last year but closed the year pitifully. Any real success by him would surprise me.

Duchscherer, Eveland and DiNardo all appear to be play-at-your-own-risk candidates. None will get me too excited, at least until I see some evidence to contradict what I've already seen from them.

Their bullpen started and ended the year strong, with a crappy stretch in the middle. Probably middle-of-the-road at best, this season. Remains to be seen. Street could remain a solid closer but middle relief seems average.

Their offense was trash last year against righthanders and only slightly better against lefties. The addition of Sweeney should be a boost, but not world-shaking due to his constant injury problems. A couple of rookies might play a role this year (e.g. 1B Barton) but it's hard to expect a great deal of improvement from their offense, especially with Chavez questionable and Swisher and Kotsay now gone. This club was dreadful with the sticks at home all of last season. I'd be surprised if they competed in the West but Harden will make the All-Star team if healthy.

Under .500, for this club, appears likely again, despite their exhibition record. Early unders might be worth a shot with Harden facing a solid SP but this club likely won't interest me early on.

That's enough for today.
Should do the Jays but I'm cautious with them due to my inevitable bias. I'd say that Halladay is likely top-10 and Burnett might be up there too, judging by his late '07 performances. A.J. might, in fact, have the better season if healthy (+300 on that idea). Closer Ryan, too, could make me dream but he appears way too injury-prone. Jays pen did end strong, so maybe I can party it up this coming fall. I gave up on the Leafs years ago but the Jays still provide me an unreasonable amount of false hope. Better than no hope, I suppose.

Or is it?

crap...

We pay the price for thinkin'

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

One more brew so, while I'm on roll, this might help me if no one else.

New York N.L.

Will do the Mets. Maybe not an illusion here.

Santana and Pedro are true studs. Remaining healthy and that will be the case.

Perez is a potential stud. He might provide the best (or only) value early on.

Maine and Orlando are solid pitchers. They round out what might be the best rotation in baseball this season. This club will be expensive no matter who is starting so any real value in their lines will be hard to come by.

Their bullpen was above average all last season, though they finished much weaker than they started. Wagner is a decent closer and their middle-men are average or a little better than that. This might actually be a weakness for them this season, considering how strong they are elsewhere.

Wright, Beltran and Delgado give them a solid lineup for the power slots. Up top, Castillo is clutch while Reyes may or may not pan out. The bottom of their order should be decent as well. The Mets began the season hitting lefties a great deal better than righties. That balanced out, a little, as the season wore on though they still finished with numbers much better against lefties. 2006 had them hitting better against righties so stay tuned to see what trends develop. Regardless, they appear to be serious contenders and should be a factor once the playoffs arrive. A total collapse late in '07 kept them out but I would expect them to make some late moves--if required--to ensure them of the glory that seemed inevitable last August or September.

Limited value with expected lines but they were a solid road team last season so maybe some early mistakes will be posted. As early road dogs against lefties--if it happens--will surely interest me.

Did I mention that I can't wait?

 

[Jig-Jag]

Cool write ups mate, can't wait for the season.:00hour

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

thanks JJ

I probably won't get through 'em all.
Want to tackle my boys as I should know them best.
Beware of bias.

Toronto

Toronto Blue Jays finished 13 games out in the East last season. Could be closer this year but that's a lot of ground to make up. 'Sox appear to be the biggest threat but I'm certainly not counting out the Yanks--Kennedy could be a real bonus to them this year, surely their bullpen will improve and no doubt they won't start as dreadfully as they did last year. To the Jays...

Halladay was great and consistent again last season. He has looked quite solid this spring. 20 wins doesn't seem like a long shot. He won't be cheap. 11-1 at home last season with the rest of the numbers much better there as well. 5-6 on the road with a BAA of .287 is something that he's likely looking to improve on this season. He'll get my interest when affordable.

Burnett was AmAzing to close out last season. Hasn't been very impressive this spring but no HR's vs over his 13 IP. One thing might concern me with A.J. is the following:
? RHP A.J. Burnett said he plans on converting from being a guy who just throws hard to being a complete pitcher this season. ?I?m trying to turn into a pitcher as much as I don?t want to,? he said with a smile. ?It?s hard because I?m used to just rarin? back and throwing and throwing the hook. Now I?m really working on sinking to both sides, and this changeup, I plan on using it. I plan on pitching, and pitching?s going to keep me healthy. It?s really opened my eyes this time.?

Results from such a change in approach could be mixed. In 8 starts off the DL he was untouchable in 5 of them before closing with a couple more mediocre. If he starts strong then I'll be hoppy but if his BB-K is looking more like the spring then I'll begrudgingly back off and just observe this "transformation."

Marcum was rock-solid until about the last month of '07. In limited work this spring he's been mediocre at best. Need to see how he starts and maybe only ride him while he's hot--very streaky pitcher, as I suppose many are.

McGowan has been about the same this spring though 1 walk to 7 K's is a good sign. I don't think that he has the same potential as Marcum but not enough evidence yet to be sure. He finished the season much stronger than he started it. He should be affordable, if nothing else.

Litsch would have very good number this spring if it wasn't for giving up bunch of homers--excellent BB to K (4-17). I think that he's not going to be anything special and I prefer to see lefty Purcey given a shot.

1st-rounder Purcey will get a shot eventually this season. Hopefully early. 1st-rounder from 2004, he's a top prospect. He can bring it. Jays desperately need a lefty to change things up on occassion.

The bullpen was solid all of '07 and seemed to get better later on. I remember a number of blown saves after Ryan got hurt so they could certainly use him if healthy (not 100% to start the campaign). No real addition to speak of and I'm sorry to have lost Joe Kennedy (died of heart failure).

I think that every team that I've covered so far had better offensive numbers vs lefties last season and the Jays certainly did--OPS about a hundred points higher vs lefties and that was true pretty much all season. They were pathetic against righties last year. A return to the offense of 2006 and they might compete. Overbay, Wells, Thomas, Rolen and Rios can all provide both power and average if healthy. Eckstein and Reed Johnson aren't half bad, while Aaron Hill made great strides after the AS break. '06 they hit much better at home but last year it was much closer (to even--still better at home). This was, surprisingly (to me), their greatest weakness last season.

Starting strong and the books will probably quickly react. I don't like to lay too much juice with these guys as I recognize my strong bias. Halladay will likely be most expensive but will produce the most wins. I'm already thinking that I might try him in the +135-range against Wang-Chung in the opener at Yankee Stadium. Beware my Jays plays.

Hopefully I didn't make any enemies in GD.
Sometimes you gotta speak out for what you believe in.
Sometimes.
"Consequence," anyone?
:scared

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Going to try to do a VERY speculative 'cap on a possible game #1 matchup of Halladay@Wang. Any "'cap" I provide is speculative until at least May, perhaps until eternity. No doubt. Certainly under current conditions.

I'm looking at about 60% on the Yanks.
Roughly.

Means I need about +150 on the Jays just to break even.

100/250% = 40%

Looks like, as I assess it presently, a play on the Jays at the +135 range would be foolhardy.
Jays were pathetic against righties last season and haven't been smoking this spring. Yankees kicked the snot out of righties late in the season and were offensive killers at home. I know that Halladay has decent numbers vs the Yanks (can't recall Wang's vs the Jays) but I couldn't swing the number that much because of it.

A fool and his money are soon parted.
I don't think I can touch this mother with less than +150.
Unlikely, with Halladay the opponent.
Maybe week 1 is a good time to spectate.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

try to do something more productive.
please ban me from the politics forum.

Milwaukee

To a team I suggested, elsewhere, might be a contender--the Milwaukee Brewers.

Brewers having a solid spring at 16-9 (.640). Might be a dogfight with the Cubs for the Central this season. Others might surprise--Cards or Astros--but I figure the first two look best heading towards the season--Brewers looking good, as mentioned, but the Cubs are 3 games under .500, with other divisional teams playing poorly (for whatever spring records mean).

Sheets is having a pretty mediocre spring but was great last mid-season before a pair of late injuries. He's got a solid arm and when he's hot he's hot--very streaky so worth trying if affordable when on a run. He'll start the opener at the Cubs and might be affordable, but against likely starter Zambrano--can't touch this.

Gallardo just funked up his left knee but should be back by mid-April latest. mlb refuses to give me his spring stats--maybe due to the DL-thing--but I really don't care...this guy has phenomenal stuff and I'll try him when affordable, unless I get a reason not to (see if the injury heals up or flares up). Best arm on the team unless Sheets has a breakthrough year. Affordable? Hoppy.

Villaneuva may be a shining light ready to happen, judging by his results after a "promotion" from the bullpen. Was great to close last season and has been pretty solid this spring. He'll been cheaper than Sheets & Gallardo, too. Will be an early-season temptation for me if affordable.

Suppan has had his share of good games but was very medocre last half of '07, is getting pounded this spring and has never really turned me on anyway. Likely get a start at Wrigley openers and he was solid in 2 starts threre last year, other than that I would been thinking fade there. Will spectate and see if he gets hot like last May/June.

Lefty Capuano let them down late last season, is just getting pounded this spring and just delevoped "soreness in his elbow." He was decent in '07 before going on the DL but I WAY need to see a few starts to re-believe.

Bush has been faily mediocre this spring, pretty much mediocre last season and has been mediocre to worse all career. Won't touch unless a super-gift. Glad he's not a Jay anymore.

Vargas and longshot lefty Parra were mediocre last season but might get in there. Neither do anything for me unless the optimum situation.

Brewers had a pretty decent pen last season and might survive until the likely demotion of Gagne as the closer. If I'm wrong about that then they look good to compete but I'll be wary of his early results--blazing fastball is history and well, we'll see. Middle relief should be pretty good. Late season closer acquisition in my prediction.

Batting order loses Jenkins and Koskie. Mike Cameron only serious addition. Decent order but I'd like to see it hot before getting too excited. Strong home team. Much greater production vs L from June on. Will face Lilly or Hill at Wrigley to maybe fade (Cubs, that is--fade, that is), escpecially if it's Charlie V (just not Suppan--pass).

Gallardo recovery most crucial.
If Gagne can "pitch" it will be bonus.
Will win their share of games.

That took a good 30-40 minutes.
That's about as intense as I can get.

:weed:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

enough on that 9-11 B.S.
The +1000 goes for any takers.
I'll cover up to ten grand on this.
Terms required (no my-truther nanny-nanny-boo-boo).
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
=============================================================================================

San Francisco

Will do the Giants. The my "if-SP-cold-then-fade" team.

LHP Zito sucked this spring until his last, 5+ shutout innings against Arizona. Was solid last season and was pretty strong late. Would still have to be an early bargain for me and he might be priced above that.

Cain's been so-so this spring. Solid most of '07 and another streaky pitcher (ride when hot, or better yet maybe unders).

Lincecum has been hit hard this spring but showed a LOT of potential last season. Hot for stretches in May, July and early August. Even finished the year only allowing 1 dinger in his last 45 innings (6 starts) and only allowed one this spring in 13 innings (15K). Might be worth some early plays or, again, unders.

Correia left BP duty to start in 7 to close out '07 and looked quite good. Pounded pretty hard this spring. Need to see more evidence.

LHP Lowry done until late April-early May. He can pitch and is very streaky. Totally hot for a stretch last June-July but finshed poor (and injured). Pounded and couldn't find the strike zone in 2 spring starts. Needs to reprove himself.

LHP Sanchez and Mitsch are both likely good fade material. Probably be priced that way, too.

Their bullpen was not great last year and is a long shot to improve. New closer Wilson may not be the answer.

Probably one of the weaker hitting orders in MLB this season. 8-18 this spring (.308 and in the toilet because of it)...might be how they start the campaign. I'll fade early with any evidence that my SP ain't sharp. Under-time if he is.

I don't know what the line is for Giants in the basement of the West but I want a piece.

(finished 19 games out last year and 11 behind the next closest team)

maybe even as cheap as +169

anybody seen one?

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

will do one more.
If I can get through them all and I'm bumping this up the first week so at least I can go over it.

New York A.L.

the dreaded Yankees

12-8 this spring for an acceptable .600. Won't be surprised if they start out better than that--early focus is no doubt being suggested due to crappy '07 start.

Wang should open (v.Halladay) and has been mediocre this spring but pretty solid regular season. Was fairly hot May and June. Not my favorite and will be pricey.

LHP Pettitte so-so in limited this spring and mostly sucked in August last year. Can certainly pitch. Pricey again.

LHP Kennedy has been decent this spring (save 3 HR in 13) and showed flashes last year. Might hop if reasonable.

Hughes not as good and hit hard this spring. Over-potential in his starts.

Mussina mediocre last year but can dominate at times. Mediocre in limited this spring. Needs to regain form otherwise passola.

Karstens and LHP Wright look like fades or over-plays. Marquez I have no clue.

Bullpen started year quite grim but finished a bit better. Addition of Hawkins only real change. Mariano is on and they'll compete.

Batting order is scary--again. Took no mercy on righties 2nd half of '07 but lefty-numbers not nearly as good. Also kicked ass at home all last 2nd-half.

The order will keep 'em in but need either Pettitte or Mussina to keep up with Wang and likely also need Kennedy to prove his worth. 5th spot beats me--Hughes nothing special.
Overs with any cold starter.

 

[bleedingpurple]

Garza

Garza

As a diehard Twin fan, I can tell you why the Twins let Garza go..

1. The Twins have a lot of pitching talent in the minors and needed a bat desperately. They decided that Garza could bring a talented hitter such as Young.

2. Gardenhire and others were pissed off at him. He worked his way up through the minors (quickly) by blowing hitters away with his fast ball. Gardenhire encouraged him to work on his off speed pitches and to change speeds for strikes. Garza would shake the catchers off and continue to throw the fastball not working on the other pitches. Gardenhire and Terry Ryan would comment about this all the time on the radio and in the papers.

3. Last year he did not make the Twins opening day roster because of point #2. He had a 1. 5 something ERA in the spring. He became irate and threw a temper tantrum and was pissy with the coaches down in the minors.

 

[bleedingpurple]

Brewers

Brewers

Brewers will win the Central if Sheets stays healthy and Gallardo comes back. Koskie (concussion) never played last year so they really dont lose his bat. They have young players that should get better. Fielder, Braun, and Hardy are great. They move Braun to LF because he makes so many errors at 3rd. Look at last years numbers for Braun, was in minors for first month. Now he plays a full season. Cory Hart will only improve and Rickey Weeks had a crappy crappy year and he can be dynamic. Brew Crew also have an upgrade at catcher in Kendall. Johnny Esrada decent hitter but no speed and did not throw out many runners. Also they brought in a couple of veteran mid relief pitchers and hopefully Turnbow will not be on the roster. Big question is replacing Cordero as closer. He was awesome last year. Also, don't forget about a young pithcer named Parra. He has great stuff but I think they will start him in the pen. Will Capuano regain form. Last year was down.

 

[bleedingpurple]

Take the mets on the runline.

Take the mets on the runline.

Take the Mets on the runline when Santana pitches. Just ride it for the season. He is going to be unbelieveable pitching against the National League no DH. Remember he pitched against Tigers and Indians frequently last year. Also the man can hit.. Mets should be about a 220 to 280 favorite when he pitches but should drop to 140 with the run line. Look for Santana to be 21 - 6 with an ERA under 3.00.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

good stuff, there.

I haven't even looked at the Twins yet and wasn't sure who they got for Garza.
Just have a feeling that Garza will turn out better than Bonser or Baker or Slowey.
Liriano was great in '06 but might be out early due to injury--still really just potential there as opposed to solid results, like pickup Young, who could improve next 3-5 years.

I just hope Garza might be cheap early and I might take a chance. Decent spring.

Twins Slowey might be better but Baker and Bonser seem like B-rate pitchers at best.
Not sure if the system is full or what (Hendrix forbid I get THAT intense).

 

[bleedingpurple]

Twins as well

Twins as well

Always make a play against the Twins when they face good left handed pitching... take the other team on the run line. Also go agianst them when they face Paul Byrd. They just never hit that guy. Slow junk pitchers give the Twins fits. So be on the look out when they face those guys. Twins do decent against Verlander.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Los Angeles A.L.

17-7 (.708) spring so lookin' sharp. Won the West by 6 games.

Jered Weaver was solid most of '07. He's been very good this spring. He should have his share of dominating stretches this year, maybe even early on.

Acquisition Garland was pretty good in '07 until the final months. Mediocre spring in limited work. Might be priced too high most games.

Lackey is hurt until May or something. Was solid last year but he rarely dominates the opposition--just consistent and steady. Maybe to fade early in his return as he get too much respect from the books.

Escobar can be more dominating than Lackey but isn't as consistent. Hurt until May as well. When he's on he might be a good ride.

LHP Saunders occasionally has a dominant game but is mostly mediocre. Needs to show improvement to get my interest. Has a 1.00 era in 9 innings of spring work so far (3 games). Need some more evidence and to consider opponents work vs lefties.

E.Santana got way too much credit from the books last year, and he wasn't spectacular. Maybe has potential but doesn't have me too excited, yet. Mixed results this spring (era over 5 with lots of hits allowed but a decent K/BB ratio). Much, much better numbers at home.

Moseley I haven't seen enough from--what he's shown so far isn't impressive. Decent but not convincing this spring.

Prospect Adenhart could be worth watching early. Solid spring and highly regarded. I'll be watching for early value here.

On the bullpen, don't know if I agree with the following:
"Once a bedrock of strength for the Angels, there are reasons to be concerned about the bullpen this year. "

I'll believe it when I see it. BP has been an Angels strength for years. Closer is going into a contract year and should excel. Can't see much of a drop-off here.

Offense should be middle-of-the-road, perhaps. Keys are Vladdy's performance and a few other pieces. Pretty much equal vs R or L. Addition of T.Hunter could help this slightly better than average offense.

These guys won't be cheap, especially at home.
Fade if Vladdy goes down.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Florida

Solid spring at 17-8 (.680). Basement of the East--18 out last year--due to a horrendous rotation, crappy defense (led the majors with 137 errors last year) and a fairly average order.

LHP Hendrickson tanked pretty early last year before finishing in the pen. He's pretty good the rare times that he is on (worthwhile if hot) but that's rare indeed. He's been good this spring (1.69 era through 16 IP - 4 G) so maybe early fades are dangerous but I'll play vs with a team capable against lefties.

LHP A.Miller had a killer stretch for the Tigers last year but went on the DL after stinking up the joint in August. Walking everybody early spring but has improved. The jury is still out on this guy. Worth a shot if hot.

Vanden Hurk mostly fade material but sometimes survives quite well. Average this spring.

1st-rounder Volstad will get a chance eventually just maybe not in April. 3-0 this spring but mediocre numbers otherwise. Need proof.

LHP Olsen was garbage last year but showed some promise in '06. No runs or walks allowed in 8IP this spring so might start strong. Unlikely to win 15.

Nolasco has shown nothing in his short career to warrant consideration. Below-average spring. Would fade if possible.

Badenhop I don't know. Great era this spring, all in relief.

Mitre, whenever he returns, was great mid-season '07 for a while but crappy to start and crappy to end. An ideal age (27) to develop into something but seems a longshot.

Bullpen was pretty crappy last year and overworked due to a crappy rotation. Closer Gregg is average at best. Be surprised by much improvement.

Majorly key bat Miguel Cabrera is gone and I can't see that being replaced. Slightly better than average offense last year could slide. Offense smoked last April vs R before quickly becoming average. Offense smoked last April through July against L which I'll consider early. Might be a good overs-team as pitching isn't great but offense might survive--maybe vs L. Hit well on the road.

Maybe some cheap, early plays on Miller if he shows anything but not a very attractive team from a betting standpoint.
Maybe to fade.
Hot spring might have this affordable.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Going to keep the rest shorter. Just what we might be looking at early on.

Washington


SP rotation could suck from the get-go. Hill can pitch if healthy and Redding can occasionally, but I'm not expecting much from LHP Perez (good years are behind) or LHP Chico. Bergmann maybe at home if hot. LHP Lannan undecided (if recalled). Clippard is an option.

Bullpen sucked early last year but came on strong later on. Cordero is so-so as a closer. Middle relief could be good. A team strength for years but could be overworked early on.

The offense was pathetic vs R all of 2007 and no real evidence that that will change. Came on fairly strong against lefties the second half last season. Might get on some streaks but I don't think this offense will do much overall.

Decent vs L at home in '07. Crappy otherwise.
Pretty horrid spring.

Nothing appealing here.
Bergmann unders if he's on, especially at home.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Atlanta


Glavine or Hampton have a decent year and they'll compete, especially if Smoltz regains something once back. Jurrjens could be a steal if he shows something early on. Hudson could win 20. Bennett maybe worth the worth the cheap early price (might replace the injured Smoltz) as he had a solid spring and throws hard. Carlyle, if they're desperate, means fade or over-time.

Bullpen has a lot of potential but could be a weakness early (see team reports). Braves might start slower than they finish.

Teixeira for a full season should help the overall offensive totals. This team shouldn't suffer much here. Offensive numbers pretty equal between vs R and vs L but win-loss record was worse against L last season.

Strong road team last year. Winning pct on the road last year vs R going into the AS break was .630. Opening against lefty Perez but they've hit him before and he could be a #1 cupcake. First system pick if -130.

Possible wild-card contender. Mets and Phillies in the same division is a pain. Phillies might slide as offense isn't everything--should do them. Braves could be worth watching but will be expensive, especially against weaker opponents which is where they should thrive.

Maybe to -140. A duplicate of Tuesday's opener and I'll just be plain offended.
Not the champs, here.
Gimme an early break.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

To anybody interested in my sanity

To anybody interested in my sanity

Might start a new thread on that--need some help on something.

Check out the following post:
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=322302

and tell me what you think.

Want the perspective of a gambler(s).
Something is wrong in Mayberry.
Will work for food.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

these guys will get me interested:

San Diego


Peavy was as good as it gets most of last season. Young is phenomenal when on, which is when healthy. Maddux can still pitch and could win 13-15. Wolf needs to prove his worth and had a crappy spring--fade if opponents can hit lefties. Germano had a great stretch early '07 but quickly turned to lame--jury is still out. Prior could dominate if he recovers well, come late Mayish.

Bullpen smoked last year and could have similar results. Hoffman is aging but knows how to pitch.

Only real gain to the pathetic '07 offense was CF Edmonds. He excels then production should improve as a couple of other sticks should improve. They did excellent work most of last season vs L but were pretty shameful vs R. Home numbers were a joke. Excel on the road as their hitters actually have some hope there.

Petco is underland though the numbers usually reflect that. Peavy or Young is on and the Petco totals will be 7.5-like. Still worth a try if facing a hot opponent. I'd be curious as to what the over-under totals were for Petco last year--if anyone has them--particularly in Peavy/Young starts. Prior should have solid numbers at Petco, too.

Team should compete in this weaker division.
Only done the G-men, so far, and the Padres should finish ahead of them. By 5-10 games.

Peavy, Young and Prior when they're hot.
Maddux in the right circumstances.
Team will often be too expensive considering their poor offense.
Isn't it Oswalt@Peavy in their Monday opener?
Under 8 will tempt--both gave up tons of hits in the spring but Peavy struck out mucho and Oswalt had a solid BB-K and a decent era.
Unders if this team hits like last season.