Preakness News

[KOSMOT]

Dublin, New Shooters Take Aim at Super Saver

By Ron Mitchell
Updated: Tuesday, May 4, 2010 8:30 AM

Pimlico Race Course officials said May 3 that Dublin, seventh in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I), will be shipping to Pimlico Race Course next Tuesday, May 11 to prepare for the $1 million Preakness Stakes (gr. I) on Saturday, May 15.
D. Wayne Lukas, who is tied for second in Preakness wins with five, trains Dublin, who finished a neck behind Super Saver in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) in a three-way photo with winner Line of David.
While Dublin is the only Derby starter confirmed to face Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver in the Preakness, other Derby horses still considering the Preakness are Paddy O'Prado (third), Lookin At Lucky (sixth) and Jackson Bend (12th). Make Music for Me (fourth) and Conveyance (15th) have not totally ruled out another chance at Super Saver.
Meanwhile, trainer Todd Pletcher, who spent early May 3 at Churchill Downs overseeing his Kentucky contingent, said Super Saver would return to the track May 5.
"He is doing well. His appetite is good, he is feeling good," Pletcher said. "Everything in the first 48 hours is very good."
Pletcher returned to New York May 3 and said he would be back in Louisville later in the week to make a decision on whether to breeze Super Saver before the Preakness or gallop him up to the race. Super Saver is scheduled to ship to Pimlico Wednesday, May 12.
Trainer Bob Baffert said both Conveyance and Kentucky Derby favorite Lookin At Lucky, who walked the shedrow May 3, have a 50-50 chance of going to Baltimore.
Noble's Promise, who had the lead in the Derby at the quarter pole but was overtaken by Super Saver and Calvin Borel and finished fifth, has been moved from ?doubtful? to ?possible? by trainer Kenny McPeek after meeting with the managing partners of Chasing Dreams Racing 2008 this afternoon at McPeek?s Magdalena Farm in Lexington.
?He ran a great race,? added McPeek. ? He is a special colt. Does he have distance limitations? We have to admit he might have them. Do we tinker and see if we can get him to go that far? We?re willing to try.?
Trainer Nick Zito said the day after the Derby that runner-up Ice Box is "doubtful."
More than a half-dozen new shooters are expected to test Super Saver in the Preakness, including stablemate Aikenite, who is scheduled to breeze May 9, according to Pletcher.
Another newcomer to the Triple Crown Trail is Schoolyard Dreams, who finished ahead of Super Saver in the March 13 Tampa Bay Derby (gr. III). In his last start, trainer Derek Ryan?s colt finished fourth in the Wood Memorial (gr. I).
"The horse had a minor infection before the Wood," said Ryan, who saddled Musket Man to a third-place finish in the 2009 Derby and Preakness. "The jock (Ramon Dominguez) told me that the hole closed up on him and he had to check out. That cost us the race and the chance to go to the Derby. It might be a blessing in disguise because he?s been doing great since then."
Ryan plans to work Schoolyard Dreams either May 5 or 6 at Monmouth Park in company with Ponzi Scheme, another 3-year-old in his stable.
Trainers Mike Machowsky (Caracortado) and Graham Motion (Turf Melody) have scheduled weekend works at Santa Anita and Pimlico, respectively, in final preparation for the Preakness.
Caracortado won the first five races of his career, including the Robert Lewis Stakes (gr. II), but finished third in the San Felipe (gr. II) and did not have enough graded earnings to land a spot in the Derby after running fourth in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I). Turf Melody has finished off the board in three starts this year, all grade III races.
Tony Dutrow, who grew up on the backside at Laurel Park where his father, Dickie Dutrow ,was a legendary trainer, would be represented by his first starter in a Triple Crown race if A Little Warm runs in the Preakness.
"We are definitely hoping to run in the Preakness," said Dutrow from his Philadelphia Park headquarters. "He just had a walk day today and will resume training tomorrow, galloping at Delaware Park. A workout is tentatively scheduled for the weekend."
Dutrow was impressed with Super Saver?s performance.
"I thought he was a very live horse going into the Derby," added Dutrow." I think if he comes into the Preakness in the same way he?s going to be a serious horse. He has been very well managed."
The first three finishers in the Derby Trial?Hurricane Ike, Aikenite and Pleasant Prince?are expected to run in the Preakness.
Hurricane Ike is one of three horses Sadler is leaving at Churchill Downs from his nine-horse contingent that came in for Derby week. The remainder of that group, including Derby runners Sidney?s Candy (17th) and Line of David (18th), are scheduled to return to California May 4. Hurricane Ike is scheduled to work twice leading up to the Preakness, including tomorrow morning at Churchill Downs.
"He is a horse that is on the improve," Sadler said. "He is not far behind the other two. He just had some minor things happen during the Derby trail but he is a pretty nice horse."
Owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey, Pleasant Prince has five in the money finishes in nine career starts, including a second in the Florida Derby (gr. I) where he lost a photo to Ice Box. He will train at Keeneland before shipping to Baltimore May 12.
"He just doesn?t want any part of a mile and the Derby Trial was almost like a workout for him," trainer Wesley Ward said. "He got up for third just in a gallop. He has been training great at Keeneland ever since."
Ward plans on breezing the colt a sharp five-furlongs May 9.
"I want to make sure of his fitness and make sure he comes out the work with everything in good order," Ward said. "He?s just an easy, beautiful horse to train. He does everything right. He?s really a good feeling colt when he?s out on the track but he?s goes back to the barn he just lays down and sleeps all day. He?s just a wonderful horse to train. He doesn?t have any physical issues, no problems to him."
All three Derby Trial horses will ship to Pimlico May 12, on a Tex Sutton plane that will also include Super Saver.
The Preakness field may have lost a contender in Bushwhacked. Hall of Fame conditioner Jonathan Sheppard reports the son of Posse has a temperature of 103.
"We are going to be very cautious with him, and with a race as important as the Preakness only two weeks away, we will have to see," Sheppard said. "We are looking for improvement, but right now it appears the race is unlikely."
The Preakness field is limited to 14 starters. If more are properly nominated by May 12 the day of the post position draw, the starters will be determined with the first seven horses given preference by the highest lifetime earnings in graded stakes. The next four starters will be determined by the highest lifetime earnings in all "non-restricted stakes," which means those stakes whose conditions contain no restrictions other than age or sex. The remaining three starters will be determined by the highest lifetime earnings in all races.


<table style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 12px;" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><colgroup><col width="132"><col width="178"><col width="137"><col width="162"></colgroup> <tbody> <tr height="17"> <td colspan="2" height="17">Potential Preakness Field</td> <td width="108"> </td> <td width="132"> </td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td width="117" height="17"> </td> <td width="162"> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr height="22"> <td height="22">

HORSE​

</td> <td>

OWNER​

</td> <td>

TRAINER​

</td> <td>

LAST START​

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td height="17">

A Little Warm​

</td> <td>

Edward P. Evans​

</td> <td>

Tony Dutrow​

</td> <td>

2nd La. Derby​

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td height="17">

Aikenite​

</td> <td>

Dogwood Stable​

</td> <td>

Todd Pletcher​

</td> <td>

2nd Derby Trial​

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td height="17">

Caracortado​

</td> <td>

Blahut Racing, Lo Hi Racing​

</td> <td>

Mike Machowsky​

</td> <td>

4th Santa Anita Derby​

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td height="17">

Dublin​

</td> <td>

Baker, Mack​

</td> <td>

D. Wayne Lukas​

</td> <td>

7th Kentucky Derby​

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td height="17">

Hurricane Ike​

</td> <td>

Ike, Dawn Thrash​

</td> <td>

John Sadler​

</td> <td>

1st Derby Trial​

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td height="17">

Pleasant Prince​

</td> <td>

Ken, Sarah Ramsey​

</td> <td>

Mike Maker​

</td> <td>

3rd Derby Trial​

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td height="17">

Schoolyard Dreams​

</td> <td>

Eric Fein, Triple Diamond​

</td> <td>

Derek Ryan​

</td> <td>

4th Wood Memorial​

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td height="17">

Super Saver​

</td> <td>

WinStar Farm​

</td> <td>

Todd Pletcher​

</td> <td>

1st Kentucky Derby​

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td height="17">

Turf Melody​

</td> <td>

Earle Mack​

</td> <td>

Graham Motion​

</td> <td>

4th Illinois Derby​

</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td height="17"> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td height="17">Possibles</td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td height="17">Bushwhacked</td> <td>Augustin Stable</td> <td>Jon Sheppard</td> <td>2nd Lexington Stakes</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td height="17">Conveyance</td> <td>Zabeel Racing</td> <td>Bob Baffert</td> <td>15th Kentucky Derby</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td height="17">Jackson Bend</td> <td>Robert LaPenta</td> <td>Nick Zito</td> <td>12th Kentucky Derby</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td height="17">Lookin At Lucky</td> <td>Pegram, Watson, Weitman</td> <td>Bob Baffert</td> <td>6th Kentucky Derby</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td height="17">Make Music for Me</td> <td>Peter, Ellen Johnson</td> <td>Alexis Barba</td> <td>4th Kentucky Derby</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td height="17">Noble's Promise</td> <td>Chasing Dreams Racing 2008</td> <td>Ken McPeek</td> <td>5th Kentucky Derby</td> </tr> <tr height="17"> <td height="17">Paddy O'Prado</td> <td>Donegal Racing </td> <td>Dale Romans</td> <td>3rd Kentucky Derby</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[KOSMOT]

<table class="photoInfo"> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

Super Saver Jogs; First Dude to Preakness

By Ron Mitchell
Updated: Wednesday, May 5, 2010 11:20 AM


<!-- begin: jqm --><!-- end: jqm --><script type="text/javascript">$('#mpw73352500').jqm({ modal: true, toTop: true, trigger: '#emailAFriend', onHide: function(h) { h.o.fadeOut(500); h.w.fadeOut(500); } });</script> <script type="text/javascript"> $('#emailAFriend').click(function() { $get('jqmContent').src = '/horse-racing/Article/Email?articleId=56863'; }); </script>WinStar Farms' Super Saver jogged a mile at Churchill Downs on the morning of May 5 in his first return to the track since winning the May 1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I).

"He looked very good," Mike McCarthy, assistant to trainer Todd Pletcher said of the Maria's Mon colt?s appearance on the track. Also on the track to jog about a mile was Pletcher-trained Mission Impazible, the Derby ninth-place finisher. McCarthy said he also went well over the fast track.

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Super Saver and Mission Impazible were among about a half-dozen Derby runners who were on the track at Churchill May 5.

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Paddy O'Prado, the Derby third-place finisher for Dale Romans, also jogged as he went to the track for the second day in a row. "He?s doing really good," Romans said. "He really came out of it (Derby) great. He wanted to get out (May 4-5) and do something."

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Super Saver and Paddy O?Prado are among the Derby horses being pointed toward the May 15 Preakness Stakes (gr. I) at Pimlico. Romans said First Dude, a son of Stephen Got Even who broke his maiden at Gulfstream Park in January, and finished third in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I), is also destined for the Preakness.

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Romans said First Dude, whose five-furlong work in 1:00 4/5 over a muddy track at Churchill Downs April 26 was the fastest of the day, would have another breeze this weekend. First Dude did not make the Derby because he had insufficient earnings in graded stakes that are used to determine the 20-horse Derby field.

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Ice Box, the Derby runner-up, and stablemate Jackson Bend (12th in Derby) also went to the track for light exercise. Stacy Prior, assistant to trainer Nick Zito, said no decision had been made on the horses? status for the Preakness.

​

Trainer Bob Baffert said he had not decided on the Preakness status of Lookin At Lucky, who ran sixth as the 6-1 Derby favorite, and Conveyance, who ran 15th in the Derby. Both horses are scheduled to go to the track May 6 for the first time since the Derby.

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Baffert said he would decide by May 9 whether either or both would run in the Preakness.

 

[KOSMOT]

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

PREAKNESS STAKES NOTEBOOK: WILL YOU REINVENT THE WHEEL?

The Kentucky Derby result may serve you well when isolating the top contenders in the second jewel on the Triple Crown trail.

History bears out that Kentucky Derby winners fare well in the Preakness. In the last 30 years, there have been 10 Derby/Preakness doubles while the Derby winner finished 2nd another seven times and 3rd two times. In the 20 years that the Derby winner was unsuccessful in the Preakness, the second jewel was won 12 times by a horse that had competed on the first Saturday in May. That made the Kentucky Derby a compelling Preakness prep for a remarkable 73% winners over the last 30 years!

Did you love SUPER SAVER in the 136th Kentucky Derby ? presented by Yum! brands? Congratulations! Love him at least as much in the Preakness.

Did PADDY O?PRADO carry your hopes for Derby success? Well, do more than respect him right back, especially if the track is wet.

If you are like me and still believe that LOOKIN AT LUCKY is the best sophomore in training, find solace in the more manageable 14 horse field and enjoy the inflated price.

Were SIDNEY?S CANDY and CONVEYANCE, pace casualties on a sticky, tiring Churchill Downs dirt track, the speed horses you preferred? Their styles will be enhanced on the tighter turns in Baltimore, MD, especially with the possibility of a ?fast? track.

Are you intent on going against the grain to find a RACHEL, BERNARDINI, or RED BULLET??? It?s happened just three times in the last 10 years so make sure there is a compelling reason to do so. Two of those three earned hardware the next January and RACHEL is the reigning Horse of the Year. Are the new shooters that kind of quality?

I'd love to read any early thoughts on how to ?Get Your Preak On?!!!

Posted by Amateurcapper at 11:28 PM

 

[KOSMOT]

<table class="photoInfo"> <tbody><tr> <td> Ice Box (left), second in the Derby, will skip the Preakness.

Photo: Skip Dickstein
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Ice Box to Skip Preakness; May Run in Belmont

By Blood-Horse Staff
Updated: Thursday, May 6, 2010 8:47 AM

<!-- begin: jqm --><!-- end: jqm -->
<script type="text/javascript">$('#mpw32881250').jqm({ modal: true, toTop: true, trigger: '#emailAFriend', onHide: function(h) { h.o.fadeOut(500); h.w.fadeOut(500); } });</script> <script type="text/javascript"> $('#emailAFriend').click(function() { $get('jqmContent').src = '/horse-racing/Article/Email?articleId=56872'; }); </script>Trainer Nick Zito confirmed May 5 that Ice Box, who finished second in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I), will not be going on to Baltimore to compete in the May 15 Preakness Stakes (gr. I) at Pimlico.
?After talking to Mr. (Bob) LaPenta we concurred that Ice Box?s race was tremendous, but we also knew it was a tough race,? said Zito in a statement. The son of Pulpit , who was bred in Kentucky by Denlea Park, has won three of eight starts, including the March 20 Florida Derby (gr. I), and earned $906,534.
?We feel that we are better-suited to wait and pass the Preakness and possibly go on to the (June 5) Belmont Stakes (gr. I) and, hopefully, things work out,? said Zito. "Also, we have more evaluation to do with Jackson Bend and will make a decision on his status for the Preakness on Monday (May 10).?
Jackson Bend, who is owned by LaPenta and Fred Brei, finished 12th in the Derby. Both Ice Box and Jackson Bend are currently training at Churchill Downs.

 

[KOSMOT]

Schoolyard Dreams, who finished 2nd in the Tampa Bay Derby (#5, left), continues to prepare for the Preakness.
Photo: Tom Cooley Photography

Schoolyard Dreams Readies For Preakness

By Blood-Horse Staff
Updated: Thursday, May 6, 2010 1:25 PM

Schoolyard Dreams, who finished ahead of winner Super Saver in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. III), fired a bullet five-furlong work in :59 3/5 at Monmouth Park with jockey Eibar Coa in the irons. It was fastest of 12 works at the distance the morning of May 6 and left trainer Derek Ryan brimming with confidence heading into Preakness Stakes (gr. I) May 15.

<!-- end: jqm --><script type="text/javascript">$('#mpw54912500').jqm({ modal: true, toTop: true, trigger: '#emailAFriend', onHide: function(h) { h.o.fadeOut(500); h.w.fadeOut(500); } });</script> <script type="text/javascript"> $('#emailAFriend').click(function() { $get('jqmContent').src = '/horse-racing/Article/Email?articleId=56880'; })</script>?The work went perfect,? said Ryan, who finished third in the 2009 Preakness with Musket Man. ?Finally got something to go right; if we could only get a race to go like this. I?m coming there to win it. I don?t want to be second or third again.
?That horse should have won last year. If he didn?t get kicked at the three-eighths pole, the most important part of the race, I would have been two or three behind Rachel Alexandra turning for home. (Instead) we were 12 behind. He did his trademark run, but we were beaten a length and a half.?
Ryan will ship into Pimlico the day before the Preakness with Schoolyard Dreams, Ponzi Scheme, who will run in the James Murphy Stakes on the Preakness undercard, and Black-Eyed Susan (gr. II) starter C C?s Pal.
Owned by Eric Fein and Triple Diamond Stable, Schoolyard Dreams will enter the Preakness off a fourth-place effort in the Wood Memorial (gr. I). The son of Stephen Got Even was a hard-luck runner-up to Odysseus in the March 13 Tampa Bay Derby. He is 2-2-1 from six starts with earnings of $179,060.

 

[KOSMOT]

'Lucky Gallops, Preakness Status Upgraded

By Blood-Horse Staff
Updated: Thursday, May 6, 2010 2:34 PM

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Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) favorite Lookin At Lucky and stablemate Conveyance were back on the track at Churchill Downs May 6 for the first time since last week?s ?Run for the Roses,? both colts galloping 1 1/2 miles after the renovation break under Peter Hutton.

<!-- end: jqm --><script type="text/javascript">$('#mpw58037500').jqm({ modal: true, toTop: true, trigger: '#emailAFriend', onHide: function(h) { h.o.fadeOut(500); h.w.fadeOut(500); } });</script> <script type="text/javascript"> $('#emailAFriend').click(function() { $get('jqmContent').src = '/horse-racing/Article/Email?articleId=56883'; }); </script> ?He looks good,? trainer Bob Baffert said of Lookin At Lucky, who finished sixth as the tepid favorite. ?He?s got a swagger to him. They both looked good.?

Throughout the week, Baffert has called Preakness (gr. I) participation for both colts a ?50-50? proposition. That changed a tiny bit Thursday morning.

?He?s 51,? Baffert said of Lookin At Lucky, owned by Karl Watson, Mike Pegram and Paul Weitman. ?This one (Conveyance, owned by Zabeel Racing International) is 50.?

Also returning to the track for the first time since the Derby was Robert Baker and William Mack?s Dublin. The son of Afleet Alex jogged a mile shortly after 6 a.m. under exercise rider Arielle Witkowski.


?He?s doing excellent; sharp as a tack,? trainer D. Wayne Lukas said. ?You?d never know he ran.?
Dublin, who ran seventh in the Derby, is scheduled to van to Pimlico May 11 where he will attempt to give Lukas a sixth Preakness victory.


Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, owned by WinStar Farm, jogged one mile for the second consecutive day under exercise rider Kevin Willey.

Other morning activity for Churchill Downs-based Preakness hopefuls included Aikenite and Jackson Bend galloping 1 1/4 miles; The Cliff?s Edge Derby Trial (gr. III) winner Hurricane Ike jogging one mile; and the Dale Romans-trained duo of Paddy O'Prado and First Dude galloping 1 1/2 miles each.

 

[KOSMOT]

Friday, May 7, 2010

Derby Winner's Preakness Odds in the '00s

I did a little unscientific research this morning as I was curious what a horse who went off at 8-1 odds in the Derby would potentially go off at in the Preakness. I limited my sample to the last ten Preakness' (2000-2009) and found some interesting results. Horse Racing Nation projects Super Saver (#1 OCD Pellets 3yo colt in the TBA Standings) to be at 5-2 when the gates open for the 135th running of the Preakness (presented by Crackberry this year?).

<iframe src="http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=ty0qnmbFgAV8SzbxMDMAAcw&single=true&gid=1&output=html&widget=true" width="500" frameborder="0" height="380"></iframe>

Based on what I see above, HRN's projection of 5-2 odds doesn't seem to be way out of line. The closest horse to Super Saver's Derby odds in the past ten years is Barbaro and he went off at 1-2, but his Derby performance was much more dominant than Super Saver's. It is interesting that both 50-1 Derby winners went off right around 6 to 7-1 in the Preakness and those in the 10 to 20-1 range went off between 2-1 and 3-1. I wouldn't be surprised if the field fills up to see Super Saver somewhere around 3-1 or 7-2 at post time. The winner has also come out of three posts twice over the last ten years: 4, 8 and 9 and no post inside the 4 hole.

Stay tuned.....

Posted by EquiSpace at 8:01 AM

 

[KOSMOT]

May 7, 2010

The Middle Jewel Takes Shape

<table><tbody><tr><td> Eight days from race day, and the Preakness field still has questions, but it is much closer to taking shape than it was a couple of days ago. At this time, here are the 14 sophomores I see as most likely to line up in the Preakness starting gate, along with my rating of each:

1 Lookin At Lucky 3-1 Isn?t the 2009 two-year-old champion is due for a fair chance. A grinder who has run well in every start, had no chance in the Derby after the first quarter mile. Needs only that elusive good trip to wear down the Derby winner down the lane, and prove he is still a champion.

2 Super Saver 5-2 The Derby winner has the tactical advantage of being near or on the lead. He has been well handled this year and appears to be in the midst of peaking at the perfect time. He will be the one to pass if you want to win the Preakness, and will have every chance to head to New York as a Triple Crown contender.

3 Caracortado 15-1 California bred gelding was up against slow paces and a rough trip in his last two. The talented colt has been freshened and is doing well for his assault on Baltimore. May get a perfect middle of the pack trip to strike as they straighten out, and if he appreciates a return to the dirt, could be the one to pull the upset.

4 Noble?s Promise 10-1 Solid colt returned from bad luck in the Arkansas Derby to run big at Churchill. He looked strong and full of run on the turn, but then hit the distance wall in the stretch. The 1/16 mile shorter distance of the Preakness should help, but the route is still a question.

5 Hurricane Ike 12-1 The Derby Trial was a big performance in his second dirt try. If the change to dirt is a reason for the apparent rapid improvement, he could prove a dangerous new shooter. The Preakness will be another huge step up for the Sadler trainee, but his last makes him quite interesting.

6 Paddy O?Prado 8-1 One of the talked about horses, he ran a big race in Louisville. Not that long ago he was a maiden, but now he may be have progressed enough to be a major threat against anyone. I wonder if he moved up in the slop, but he must be respected off his recent form.

7 Dublin 15-1 D. Wayne?s main hope was a threatening presence at the quarter pole, but once again faded a bit when the real running began. He must be considered a threat on his best, but until he proves to me that he can get a distance, I can not make him one of my top selections.

8 Schoolyard Dreams 20-1 Derek Ryan trained colt defeated the Derby winner just a few races ago, but then disappointed in the Wood Memorial. He has been freshened since then and if he can improve just a little bit, may prove to be horse with a chance in the stretch.

9 Jackson Bend 20-1 Steps in as the only LaPenta/ Zito colt to make the trip to Baltimore. Hard trying little guy deserves another chance after the Derby craziness. I still see the distance as the main drawback to his win chances once again.

10 Aikenite 25-1 Pletcher?s other entrant showed improvement in the Derby Trial, but I believe that was mainly due to the shorter distance. 1 3/16 should prove tough for the son of Yes It?s True, who probably will have a future rallying in one-turn races.

11 A Little Warm 25-1 New shooter went from a stakes win sprinting to a solid effort in the Louisiana Derby. Not sure if he can make another big jump up against these at the Preakness distance, but he should be involved in the early stages.

12 First Dude 30-1 Lightly raced and distance bred, this colt may still have a future, but it is hard to see it happen in the Preakness. This Dale Romans' second string colt looks destined to run much like you would expect a second stringer to run.

13 Pleasant Prince 30-1 The horse who ran close to Ice Box several times seems to be moving in the wrong direction. His connections tried hard to qualify him for the Derby, and it did not work. Now I am afraid they are left with a non-fresh horse with little chance in here.

14 Northern Giant 40-1 Lukas is famous for taking a flyer in Triple Crown races, and that is all that this horse appears to be. I can?t recommend off his Arkansas Derby performance, in which his lack of class seems to have been on display.</td></tr></tbody></table>
Posted by Brian Zipse at 8:25 AM

 

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Preakness: Conveyance out; 'Lucky' in

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Daily Racing Form

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Conveyance, who finished 15th in the Kentucky Derby, on Friday was taken out of consideration for the Preakness by trainer Bob Baffert, who still is pointing Lookin At Lucky to the Preakness.
There is a strong chance there could be a jockey replacement on Lookin At Lucky, who has been ridden by Garrett Gomez. Martin Garcia, who rode Conveyance, is "still on hold with Mr. Baffert" for the Preakness and other races that day at Pimlico, said Garcia's agent, Jim Pegram.
Baffert was not happy with Gomez's ride in the Kentucky Derby, nor in the Santa Anita Derby in his prior start. Pegram is the brother of Mike Pegram, a co-owner of Lookin At Lucky.
"Everything's on hold," Jim Pegram said. "I haven't received any word from Bob."
If Gomez loses the mount on Lookin At Lucky, that could set off a domino effect regarding other Preakness mounts, since a jockey of Gomez's reputation surely would be pursued by other parties. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas, for instance, has two runners in the race, and right now has Terry Thompson named on Dublin but has no rider named for Northern Giant.

Noble's Promise headed to Royal Ascot

Noble's Promise has been ruled out of the Preakness and will be pointed instead to a race at the Royal Ascot meet in England in June, trainer Ken McPeek said Friday.
Noble's Promise had been considered as a possible starter for the 135th Preakness after finishing fifth in the Kentucky Derby last Saturday, but McPeek said the more prudent decision is not to rush into that race and to wait instead for the June 15 St. James Palace at Ascot, a Group 1 race at about a mile on the turf.
Noble's Promise led past the quarter pole in the Derby before fading to fifth behind the victorious Super Saver.
- additional reporting by Marty McGee

 

[KOSMOT]

Updated: May 11, 2010, 10:42 AM ET
Looks like 13 in Preakness

<script type="text/javascript">jQuery.getScriptCache('http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/c/?js=espn.tools.r1.js', function() { espn.core.init.tools(5180014,'http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown2010/news/story?id=5180014'); })</script><cite class="source">By Jay Privman
Daily Racing Form</cite>
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Hi ho, hi ho, it's off to Pimlico we go for the second leg of the Triple Crown, the 135th Preakness Stakes, in which Super Saver, the Kentucky Derby winner, will face another large field, though the complexion of the race has changed dramatically from the lineup at Churchill Downs, both in terms of horses and the likely pace.

The Preakness is limited to 14 runners, and as of Monday, it appeared a baker's dozen of 13 was going to pass the entry box on Wednesday, when post positions will be drawn for the $1 million race.
Of the 20 horses who ran in the 1 1/4-mile Derby, only five, including Super Saver, are returning for the 1 3/16-mile Preakness, so the remainder of the field is made up of eight horses who skipped or could not get into the Derby.

And though the Derby's pace played out as it looked on paper - white-hot - the Preakness is coming up with apparently less early speed, a scenario made even more acute by the withdrawal of A Little Warm on Monday.

Super Saver has remained at Churchill Downs following the Derby. On Monday, he had a little tune-up for the Preakness, an easy three-furlong drill in 36.60 seconds under jockey Calvin Borel on a fast main track. According to track clockers, Super Saver galloped out a half-mile in 49.20 seconds, and five furlongs in 1:02. The time equaled the fifth-best of 29 at the distance.
"Calvin did exactly what we asked him to do," said trainer Todd Pletcher, who watched from the frontside. "Go an easy three-eighths and gallop out an easy half. It's amazing how effortless the horse was in doing it. "We are very, very encouraged by his energy level, the way he is eating, the way he is moving. We are very happy with what we see."

This will be the first - and likely only - time in Super Saver's career that he will have races a mere two weeks apart. Pletcher said he worked Super Saver because "he's doing so well, we wanted to give him a chance to stretch his legs a little bit."

There are four other horses who chased Super Saver in the Derby and are scheduled to be back for a rematch in the Preakness - Paddy O'Prado (third in the Derby), Lookin At Lucky (sixth), Dublin (seventh), and Jackson Bend (12th).

Jackson Bend, working with stablemate Latigo Shore, flew through four furlongs in 46.60 seconds at Churchill Downs on Monday with exercise rider Stacy Prior. Their time was the best of 69 at the distance. "Fred Brei, who co-owns Jackson Bend, kept telling me how tough this little guy is, and he was right," Nick Zito, the trainer of Jackson Bend, said by phone from Kentucky. "This morning was a good indication of how tough this guy is. I wanted to see where we were at. If we have a good week, I hope he can rebound."

Lookin At Lucky did not work - and will not between these two races, according to trainer Bob Baffert - but his former rider, Garrett Gomez, was aboard Dublin for a half-mile drill in 48.40 seconds.

D. Wayne Lukas, the trainer of Dublin, also worked Northern Giant three furlongs in 36.40 seconds with exercise rider Arielle Witkowski. Northern Giant is one of eight horses joining the Triple Crown trail after skipping the Derby.

The others are Aikenite, Caracortado, First Dude, Hurricane Ike, Pleasant Prince, Schoolyard Dreams, and Yawanna Twist.

Hurricane Ike worked seven furlongs in 1:25.80 on Monday at Churchill with jockey Robby Albarado, who has the Preakness mount. Calvin Borel rode Hurricane Ike to a victory in the Derby Trial, but then won the Derby a week later with Super Saver, his Preakness mount.

Hurricane Ike has tried two turns just once. He was 11th of 14 in the Breeders' Futurity on Polytrack last fall at Keeneland. "Calvin told me after the Derby Trial that he thought he'd run on," said John Sadler, the trainer of Hurricane Ike.

Also at Churchill Downs, Yawanna Twist worked five furlongs in 1:01.80 with exercise rider Michelle Nevin for trainer Rick Dutrow.

Lukas's duo was scheduled to travel by van to Pimlico on Tuesday, but the remainder of the Churchill Downs-based Preakness runners are scheduled to fly to Maryland on Wednesday.
That flight is originating early that morning in California, where Caracortado is based, and is stopping in Kentucky.

A Little Warm worked five furlongs on Monday at Delaware Park in 1:01.16, according to Daily Racing Form, but bled in the work and was removed from the Preakness.

A Little Warm, trained by Tony Dutrow, has not raced since finishing second in the Louisiana Derby seven weeks ago. "Tony scoped the horse and he bled a 2 out of 5," said Chris Baker, the racing and farm manager for owner Ed Evans. "The horse had no history of bleeding prior to that.

Even though all other indicators showed the horse was recovering and seemed to be ready to compete at Pimlico, this showed us he wasn't as well recovered as he would need to be so we've withdrawn him from consideration."

The work was the first for A Little Warm since April 25, when he breezed four furlongs in 48.40 seconds at the Palm Meadows training center in Florida. After A Little Warm didn't get into the Derby field because of a lack of graded stakes earnings, he was vanned from Florida to Dutrow's stable at Delaware Park. After training his first day at Delaware, A Little Warm came down with a temperature that kept him off the track for several days.

A Little Warm could have been a key player in the race. With Conveyance and Sidney's Candy, the two speedsters from the Derby, off the Triple Crown trail, A Little Warm was a strong candidate to be the Preakness pacesetter.

Conveyance was ridden in the Derby by Martin Garcia, who is expected to ride Lookin At Lucky in the Preakness, replacing Gomez.

The weather this week at Pimlico is forecast to be quite varied. There was a 60-percent chance of rain on Tuesday, with a high of just 60 degrees, but that was to be followed by 81-degree days Wednesday and Friday, with isolated thunderstorms possible both days.

The forecast for Saturday is for a high temperature of 78 degrees, and just a 10-percent chance of rain.

- additional reporting by David Grening and Marty McGee

 

[KOSMOT]

Injury Knocks Hurricane Ike Out of Preakness

By Jason Shandler
Updated: Wednesday, May 12, 2010 11:15 AM

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Hurricane Ike, winner of The Cliff?s Edge Derby Trial (gr. III), will not start in the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) this weekend, trainer John Sadler said May 12.

<!-- end: jqm --><script type="text/javascript">$('#mpw97407500').jqm({ modal: true, toTop: true, trigger: '#emailAFriend', onHide: function(h) { h.o.fadeOut(500); h.w.fadeOut(500); } });</script> <script type="text/javascript"> $('#emailAFriend').click(function() { $get('jqmContent').src = '/horse-racing/Article/Email?articleId=56973'; }); </script> The son of Graeme Hall had been preparing for the second leg of the Triple Crown at Churchill Downs, where he won the Derby Trial by 2 3/4 lengths April 24. But he did not make his scheduled flight from Louisville to Baltimore May 12. Sadler said the colt was declared from the race due to an unspecified injury of the left hind leg that was discovered prior to the flight.
?My horse isn?t so fine. It?s something that came up this morning. I got a call telling me that he was off behind,? said Sadler from Hollywood Park.
Sadler?s veterinarian Dr. Ken Reed attended to the injury.
?This is pretty fresh, but it looks similar to the problem he had at Oak Tree,? said Sadler, referring to a condition that popped up last fall at Santa Anita and delayed the colt?s 3-year-old campaign. ?He might have re-injured himself in the same area.?
Hurricane Ike, a winner of two of eights starts, is owned by Ike and Dawn Thrash. Out of the Future Storm mare Parental Uproar, he was bred in Florida by Stanley Boileau.
The departure of Hurricane Ike now leaves the Preakness field with 12 probable starters. The field will be drawn later today.

 

[KOSMOT]

<table class="photoInfo"> <tbody><tr> <td> Schoolyard Dreams (#5, left) came up a little short in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Photo: Tom Cooley Photography
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Preakness Doings: Stickball King

By Steve Haskin
Updated: Wednesday, May 12, 2010 8:42 AM


Sorry for yet another ?Honeymooners? reference, but we?re devoting this column to hitting one out of the park?or should we say over the fence.
<!-- begin: jqm -->
<!-- end: jqm --><script type="text/javascript">$('#mpw89595000').jqm({ modal: true, toTop: true, trigger: '#emailAFriend', onHide: function(h) { h.o.fadeOut(500); h.w.fadeOut(500); } });</script> <script type="text/javascript"> $('#emailAFriend').click(function() { $get('jqmContent').src = '/horse-racing/Article/Email?articleId=56968'; }); </script> If you haven?t made the Schoolyard Dreams connection yet, we?ll end the metaphors and get right to the Preakness Stakes (gr. I).
You can certainly make a good case for Super Saver, Lookin at Lucky, Paddy O'Prado, and a number of other Preakness starters, in what looks to be another fairly wide-open race.
But if you?re looking for a price horse who could be live, there are several factors that point to Schoolyard Dreams.
First off, we really have no idea how good he is. He definitely is a lot better than his record, and could be much better than people think.
Of all the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) preps this year, his dramatic move around horses on the turn of the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. III) was as impressive a turn of foot as we?ve seen all year. In Jan., Feb., and March, he was a horse who simply needed to grow up and develop a killer instinct. He seemed to have Rule at his mercy in the Sam F. Davis (gr. III), but let him come back and beat him. He appeared to have Super Saver and Odysseus beaten after his big move in the Tampa Bay Derby and couldn?t put either one away. Although he narrowly held on for second over Super Saver, who was making his 3-year-old debut, he let Odysseus get back in the race and stick his nose in front of him right on the wire.
His fourth-place finish in the Wood Memorial (gr. I) was too dull an effort to be true. It was later learned he had been battling a slight illness and wasn?t quite 100% for the race.
Remember, the Stephen Got Evens as a whole are late developers, and you can bet Schoolyard Dreams has done a lot of growing up since his Tampa races, especially being a May 8 foal.
But here is the real reason to give him a big shot in the Preakness. His brilliance in the morning has not been fleeting, as is the case with most horses. When a horse is as consistently brilliant as he has been it usually indicates he or she is extremely talented, period.
Of Schoolyard Dreams? last 12 works, dating back to Dec. 12, nine of them were bullet works. That is remarkable in itself, but to make it even more impressive, every one of those nine bullet works was listed as ?breezing.? And these weren?t bullet works when only four or five horses worked at the distance that same day. The average number of horses who worked the same distance on the day he bullet-worked was 40, and that includes days when there were 47, 59, 66, and 78 workers. The lowest number of workers was 12 and 19. So, all in all, in those nine bullet works, he outworked a total of 358 horses.
And he did it at three tracks ? Tampa Bay, Philadelphia Park, and Monmouth Park ? that have three totally different types of surfaces ? from hard and fast (Monmouth) to deep and slow (Tampa Bay).
Even early on as a 2-year-old, prior to his career debut, he worked a half-mile in a bullet :47 4/5 on Oct. 6 at Monmouth Park, the fastest of 42 works at the distance.
When he was being trained on the farm, he always worked between horses and loved the company. In fact, he only grabbed hold of the bit and worked fast if he had company, and it?s no different now. So, a big field should not bother him and he?s not going to get intimidated if he?s in traffic. Put him in a herd and he?ll be right in the middle of it.
It seems as if Schoolyard Dreams can adapt to anything. He was ridden by six different jockeys in his first six starts, never finishing worse than fourth. And he ran big in races in which they went the first three-quarters in a solid 1:11 3/5 and a snail-like 1:15.
He seems to thrive with four-to-six weeks between races, and considering the circumstances, he obviously wasn?t crazy about the three weeks leading up to the Wood Memorial. He now gets six weeks to the Preakness and is sharp and fresh.
So, the bottlom line is that if you want to take a shot with a horse who should be a fairly decent price, Schoolyard Dreams has the kind of untapped ability that could very well burst forth in the Preakness.
It?s still early, but as you must have deduced by now, this is going to be our price pick.

 

[KOSMOT]

Friday, May 14, 2010

Preakness 135: Twist and Shout

Well, looks like the drama over who I'm going to pick is over. I've been struggling all week with this group and haven't had much time to dive into the past performances to determine who I like until tonight. I'm going with the upset for a number of reasons. Mainly if you look back at the past 10 years, we're due for an upset (so #1 law of averages). Here is a chart that depicts the last 10 years' Preakness payouts for a $2 win bet, a $2 exacta, a $2 trifecta, a $1 superfecta and the $1 Pick Four ending with the Preakness. The pattern that is interesting is that we really haven't had too many bombs in the past 10 years who shocked the masses, but there has been some exotic crashers based on the exacta and trifecta payouts such as Macho Again (2008), Sweetnorthernsaint (2006), Scrappy T (2005), Midway Road (2003) and Magic Weisner (2002)

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Secondly, I think that the Derby run over the sloppy Churchill strip last week favored only two or three horses who really had clean trips. This isn't the best indicator of form when analyzing at the race.

Lastly, I spent some time looking at pedigree. Over the last few years (especially the Belmont) when you look back after the race, the handicapping clue is usually hidden deep in the pedigree somewhere. I'm betting on this angle for Le Preak 135.

So here are my thoughts:

1 - Yawanna Twist (30-1 ML) Sounds like a reach, right. The lightly raced son of Yonaguska has placed twice in graded stakes (G3 - Gotham and G3 - Illinois Derby). I had a pretty good hunch in the Derby with Super Saver based on pedigree and I think this one could surprise us all and I'll be weaving him in and out of the top three spots. Wouldn't it be apropos for Edgar Prado to win his first Preakness four years after the Barbaro debacle? I saw him win his first Derby at my inaugural Derby, so could lightning strike twice in my inaugural Preakness? Yawanna's damsire Oliver's Twist was 2nd by a head in the 1995 Preakness, beating Derby winner Thunder Gulch and Tejano Run. Here's a look at his damsire's 1995 placing - a tremendous stretch run....

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Yawanna dance?

2 - Super Saver (5-2 ML favorite) I'm not giving up on my boy, and in fact will be rooting for him to keep the Triple Crown hopes alive. He certainly wasn't taxed two weeks ago in the Derby having a dream trip, so I think he'll be fresh and ready to roll in Baltimore.

3 - Pleasant Prince (20-1 ML). If you toss his last two (muddy track in the Derby trial and poor synthetic effort at KEE) he was progressing nicely with increasing Beyers. Ice Box's performance flatters his Floriday Derby placing by a nose and he could be one of the ones that blows up the exotic numbers.

4 - Jackson Bend (12-1). Throw out his Derby and remove Eskendereya from his races and he's won a G1 and G2 and has progressing speed numbers. He seems to hit the board wherever he goes and I'm not going to let him beat me Saturday.

Who I've given up on:

Lookin at Lucky (3-1). Physically the last three races have had to take a toll on this horse. New rider and all. Lucky #7? I'm taking a stand against. If he beats me, he beats me. There's no doubt the colt has tremendous talent, but he must be tired.

Dublin (12-1). Really thought he was going to show up at Churchill, but he dudded in the stretch again. Gomez has the TC jinx. I'm staying away.

Caracortado (10-1). Cali buzz horse. Hasn't run since a compromised Santa Anita Derby trip. Not feeling it.

Who I'll dabble with in exotics:

Paddy O'Prado. Blew up my Derby tri even though I saw he was taking money, not again Paddy my boy.

Schoolyard Dreams. Best chance is hitting the board in third.

Well, Space Cadets, that's my take on Preakness 135, I'll be on the Clubhouse Turn taking in the card to complete my personal triple crown. So shake it up baby....and good luck to all!

Posted by EquiSpace at 7:38 PM