Prediction Markets: 70% chance of Speaker Pelosi

[Terryray]

The Univ of Iowa's Electronic Market, much better predictor of these things than polls, is now showing strong indication for Democratic takeover of the House, and nearly equal chance of Republicans maintaining control of Senate.

I thought it would be a bit closer than these figures..

the markets at Pinnacle sportsbook, etc show about the same thing.

Reading the Wiki entry on prediction markets, I was surprised to read this:

"These markets actually have a long and colorful lineage. Betting on elections was common in the U.S. until at least the 1940s, with formal markets existing on Wall Street in the months leading up to the race. Newspapers reported market conditions to give a sense of the closeness of the contest in this period prior to scientific polling. The markets involved thousands of participants, had millions of dollars in volume in current terms, and had remarkable predictive accuracy."


I met a fellow in Chicago who worked at an importing firm that set up an internal market for employees to bet on what future quarterly earnings would be. Beat the accounting dept estimates 75% of the time and put a few bean counters out of work!




Iowa market--graph 2006 US House Control Market

Iowa market--graph of 2006 US Senate Control Market

 

[djv]

I predict Dem's pick up 16 seats in congress.
I see a pick up of 4 for them in senate.
Governor's will be 25/25 a pick up of 3 for Dem's.
Any more in numbers above will be considered a blow out.
Oh we can only hope Im right. A little grid lock.
Stock market likes that.

 

[djv]

I thought everyone would have there predictions. That's what were about here are we not.
No Dem's Reb's going to stick up for there boys.

 

[danmurphy jr]

Choice for president: Hastert or Pelosi??
www.cure4hives&otherrepulsivefears.com

 

[Chadman]

I'm really busy today, so wondering if anyone knows of a good site/page that shows up to date predictions/estimates by state for both congress and senate races? Maybe a color-coded chart or something with the polls (preferably not skewed)?

Trying to figure out just how late I will be staying up tomorrow night...

 

[bjfinste]

www.electionprojection.com is a good one to look at. The guy is a hardcare Republican and that comes through in any editorial stuff he writes. But as far as the elections/polls, he just goes straight numbers. I've always enjoyed his site.

 

[bjfinste]

I thought everyone would have there predictions. That's what were about here are we not.
No Dem's Reb's going to stick up for there boys.

I think the Dems will get to 27 on governors. That will be the end of their good fortune. I don't buy the polls as it's just too hard to get a true reading. I don't think they are intentionally biased like some of the kool-aid drinkers in here would lead you to believe is the case. I just think the sample size is far too small and there are so many factors that it's best not to put much stock in all of the polls.

Dems pick up a few senate seats; I'm guessing it'll be 51-47-2 or 50-48-2 after Tuesday.

Dems will gain 12-15 House seats. I feel the Republicans will remain in control of the House, although it'll be close.

 

[Terryray]

a few I ran across

a few I ran across

Fine map of Senate races. Color coded with recent poll data listed in detail below.


MSNBC has cool map of key races.


Some key House polls here.


the prediction markets have shown slight uptick of late in favor of Republicans keeping house. Maybe up to 35% chance now...

The first strong indication of how the night should go will be KY and Indiana. The polls close early (6pm EST) and if the close races there (S. Bend and suburbs of Cinci) go Democrat, then most certainly will be a long night for Republicans, various pundits say.

Other big early indicator will be turnout. If bigger than expected, would help Republicans. The rain forcast doesn't look good for that.

 

[djv]

Yes winds are blowing a little different since Sunday Congress may not change. I never thought Senate would change a pick up of 4 there is tops.
Dam I was so hoping for some grid lock. In long run when they have to compromise more it's better for America.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Favor RealClear Politics for projections--did best in 04.

Think as most that Dems will prob gain control of house but not senate.

Can see positives regardless of outcome. GOP needed wake up on call on what their 94 Contract With America was about--and get back to program they got way to complacent and took too much for granite.

--and what better gift could you put center stage than Pelosi as speaker of house for 2 years preceding presidential election to remind folks of exactly what liberalism is about.

Should lock in 08 presidental election regardless of who runs. As matter of fact had it not been for Perot splitting the independent vote--Clinton would have never won in 1st place as he became
1st pres to get elected on less than 45%(43%) of vote.

P.S. Won't be laying it on voting machines-conspiracies ect --and won't be any bartenders coming up to me with "the Kerry question"
--"Hey man,why the long face" either

 

[djv]

On the other hand DTB. If Dems do get congress. They will put forward items that reach more Americans to gain favor with them. Some will put Bush in position to have to veto. Can you see the adds starting late 07. Republicans keeping Vetoing Measures to help here and there and every where.