Note that I don't have detailed records or anything like that tracking these angles, but they are something I have noticed over the last 3 years. Something to look at, in any case. As always use local media reports heavily when handicapping preseason. Good luck.
1) Play the OVER when two teams play each other relatively early (first 4 or 5 weeks, usually) in the regular season.
Reasoning here is that there is no way either coach will play anything but a vanilla defense with an early season matchup looming so often more points are scored in these types of games.
2) Play the OVER in the second to last week of preseason.
Most teams use their starters for at least a half and with base defenses being played, generally the scores are higher.
3) Play the UNDER in the last week of the preseason.
Reasoning here is two fold. First of all, bettors often overreact to the previous week of higher scoring games and keep totals too high. Secondly, avoiding injury is often a top priority so offenses generally emphasize the run to get the game over with as soon as possible.
1) Play the OVER when two teams play each other relatively early (first 4 or 5 weeks, usually) in the regular season.
Reasoning here is that there is no way either coach will play anything but a vanilla defense with an early season matchup looming so often more points are scored in these types of games.
2) Play the OVER in the second to last week of preseason.
Most teams use their starters for at least a half and with base defenses being played, generally the scores are higher.
3) Play the UNDER in the last week of the preseason.
Reasoning here is two fold. First of all, bettors often overreact to the previous week of higher scoring games and keep totals too high. Secondly, avoiding injury is often a top priority so offenses generally emphasize the run to get the game over with as soon as possible.
