Jack is out today so I decided to post my writeups on each game in the forum. just my early leans, nothing concrete for the most part.
8/22/01 Update
2001 NFLX Record: 4-2, +115
8/22 NFL Plays: PASS
Before I get to each individual game, I want to pass along a word that historically the second to last week of preseason NFL is a strong over week. Everyone knows that defense wins championships so most teams play very vanilla defense without complex schemes throughout preseason. This is the week that starters generally see the most action, so historically they have been able to take advantage of that. Obviously some games will go under this week but if you are betting unders be very careful. If you play a side, lean towards the over this week.
This week's lines are courtesy of Sportsinteraction (www.sportsinteraction.com). This is arguably the top underdog book available. If you bet underdogs in any sport, especially moneyline dogs, this book is a must-have.
THURSDAY:
Kansas City +4 / 34 vs. JACKSONVILLE
This should be an old-fashioned shoot-out. Jacksonville really struggled against New York so I expect Caughlin to let Brunell and Taylor light 'em up. Kansas City has a lethal offense as is. Very strong chance of me playing the over here.
Carolina +5.5 / 31 vs. BALTIMORE
No way on earth I would go under 31 points this week no matter who was playing. That said, the over is a risk as well due to Baltimore being embarassed on defense last week. Baltimore is always a strong lean ont he side play in preseason because of Billick, but 5.5 may be too many points here. Most likely a pass.
Philadelphia +5.5 / 32.5 vs. TENNESSEE
Certainly Tennessee and the over look like the side and total to be on with O'Donnell likely being able to murder the Philly D. I have not yet gotten a good read on the Eagles, though, so I will probably pass.
FRIDAY:
Indianapolis +3 / 44 vs. MINNESOTA
Obviously the over looks like gravy here. Value, schmalue. I don't care what anybody says about 44 being too high for a preseason total, with these two teams in the third week of preseason, this game could reach 60 points. Minnesota is always a side to look at in preseason because of Denny Green. I am not sure if I will bet Minny or the over here, but I am strongly considering them.
Cleveland +2 / 33 vs. WASHINGTON
Cleveland has really been in some low scoring games this preseason. Therefore, i will probably leave the total alone. Washington should come out firing after being embarassed the last two weeks but George's health is a big question mark. Probably a pass here but a possible play on Washington pending media reports.
SATURDAY:
Detroit +4 / 37 vs. PITTSBURGH
Man, I have to look at this game more, but Detroit seems like a steal getting four points. They have been lighting people up in preseason and Pittsburgh is god awful. Tough call on the total.
Buffalo +3 / 35 vs. CINCINNATI
Very tough call here. If Johnson is out, then Buffalo is a tough team to handicap. The QB battle should work in Cincy's favor here. If Johnson is planning to play, then the over may be a play to look at.
New England +5 / 32 vs. TAMPA BAY
Good lord! Five points? Tampa is garbage. I cannot wait to pound the Cowboys in week one against these tools. New England is the better team here. No question in my mind. But Tampa has the incentive of playing at home and leaving their starters in much of the game. The over looks much better in other games, so I will pass on this total.
Jets +1 / 33.5 vs. GIANTS
The Jets seem to be the better overall team. They also seem to be a play here. The over may be another good play because both offenses looked strong last week. Neither play is overly strong, though.
Miami +2.5 / 35.5 vs. GREEN BAY
My hometown team and my favorite team (at least for this year) facing each other. Too many emotional factors for me.
Arizona +4.5 / 35 vs. CHICAGO
The Cards looked downright superb last week up in Seattle. That almost makes this over look very strong. Though call, though, because I want to wait for media reports on how the Bears' QB situation is shaking out.
New Orleans +6 / 39.5 vs. DENVER
Denver in a walk. I really cannot imagine it going any other way. New Orleans moved the ball but struggled to score against Dallas. Denver is opening the new stadium and they have two good QBs and three good running backs. The over is the right side in my view but I dunno if it is strong enough for a play.
Seattle +2.5 / 40 vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Dang it, Holmgren. Thoughout your career you have been reliable as clockwork for leaving in your starters extra time and generally overemphasizing preseason. Now this year, your team looks like garbage in preseason. I dunno what to think anymore. Most likely a pass here.
St. Louis -2.5 / 40.5 vs. SAN DIEGO
Tough call here. St. Louis is a very deep team but Flutie and Brees will both likely roll up some points. 40.5 seems like a very low total for this kind of matchup. If anything, the over may be the best play here.
MONDAY:
Oakland -6.5 / 37 vs. Dallas (a Estadia Azteca en Mexico, D.F.)
You know, I probably should somehow understand this line, but I just don't. Oakland barely beat Dallas, won, but failed to cover against Arizona and then lost to Frisco. Yet they are touchdown faves against the Cowboys. I think the crowd will be strongly pro-Dallas unless half of Los Angeles decides to make the trip down (did you know that Los Angeles has the second largest population of Mexicans in the world after Mexico, D.F.? And all of them are Raider fans.) I will probably pass on this one based on the uncertainty at quarterback for Dallas.
8/22/01 Update
2001 NFLX Record: 4-2, +115
8/22 NFL Plays: PASS
Before I get to each individual game, I want to pass along a word that historically the second to last week of preseason NFL is a strong over week. Everyone knows that defense wins championships so most teams play very vanilla defense without complex schemes throughout preseason. This is the week that starters generally see the most action, so historically they have been able to take advantage of that. Obviously some games will go under this week but if you are betting unders be very careful. If you play a side, lean towards the over this week.
This week's lines are courtesy of Sportsinteraction (www.sportsinteraction.com). This is arguably the top underdog book available. If you bet underdogs in any sport, especially moneyline dogs, this book is a must-have.
THURSDAY:
Kansas City +4 / 34 vs. JACKSONVILLE
This should be an old-fashioned shoot-out. Jacksonville really struggled against New York so I expect Caughlin to let Brunell and Taylor light 'em up. Kansas City has a lethal offense as is. Very strong chance of me playing the over here.
Carolina +5.5 / 31 vs. BALTIMORE
No way on earth I would go under 31 points this week no matter who was playing. That said, the over is a risk as well due to Baltimore being embarassed on defense last week. Baltimore is always a strong lean ont he side play in preseason because of Billick, but 5.5 may be too many points here. Most likely a pass.
Philadelphia +5.5 / 32.5 vs. TENNESSEE
Certainly Tennessee and the over look like the side and total to be on with O'Donnell likely being able to murder the Philly D. I have not yet gotten a good read on the Eagles, though, so I will probably pass.
FRIDAY:
Indianapolis +3 / 44 vs. MINNESOTA
Obviously the over looks like gravy here. Value, schmalue. I don't care what anybody says about 44 being too high for a preseason total, with these two teams in the third week of preseason, this game could reach 60 points. Minnesota is always a side to look at in preseason because of Denny Green. I am not sure if I will bet Minny or the over here, but I am strongly considering them.
Cleveland +2 / 33 vs. WASHINGTON
Cleveland has really been in some low scoring games this preseason. Therefore, i will probably leave the total alone. Washington should come out firing after being embarassed the last two weeks but George's health is a big question mark. Probably a pass here but a possible play on Washington pending media reports.
SATURDAY:
Detroit +4 / 37 vs. PITTSBURGH
Man, I have to look at this game more, but Detroit seems like a steal getting four points. They have been lighting people up in preseason and Pittsburgh is god awful. Tough call on the total.
Buffalo +3 / 35 vs. CINCINNATI
Very tough call here. If Johnson is out, then Buffalo is a tough team to handicap. The QB battle should work in Cincy's favor here. If Johnson is planning to play, then the over may be a play to look at.
New England +5 / 32 vs. TAMPA BAY
Good lord! Five points? Tampa is garbage. I cannot wait to pound the Cowboys in week one against these tools. New England is the better team here. No question in my mind. But Tampa has the incentive of playing at home and leaving their starters in much of the game. The over looks much better in other games, so I will pass on this total.
Jets +1 / 33.5 vs. GIANTS
The Jets seem to be the better overall team. They also seem to be a play here. The over may be another good play because both offenses looked strong last week. Neither play is overly strong, though.
Miami +2.5 / 35.5 vs. GREEN BAY
My hometown team and my favorite team (at least for this year) facing each other. Too many emotional factors for me.
Arizona +4.5 / 35 vs. CHICAGO
The Cards looked downright superb last week up in Seattle. That almost makes this over look very strong. Though call, though, because I want to wait for media reports on how the Bears' QB situation is shaking out.
New Orleans +6 / 39.5 vs. DENVER
Denver in a walk. I really cannot imagine it going any other way. New Orleans moved the ball but struggled to score against Dallas. Denver is opening the new stadium and they have two good QBs and three good running backs. The over is the right side in my view but I dunno if it is strong enough for a play.
Seattle +2.5 / 40 vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Dang it, Holmgren. Thoughout your career you have been reliable as clockwork for leaving in your starters extra time and generally overemphasizing preseason. Now this year, your team looks like garbage in preseason. I dunno what to think anymore. Most likely a pass here.
St. Louis -2.5 / 40.5 vs. SAN DIEGO
Tough call here. St. Louis is a very deep team but Flutie and Brees will both likely roll up some points. 40.5 seems like a very low total for this kind of matchup. If anything, the over may be the best play here.
MONDAY:
Oakland -6.5 / 37 vs. Dallas (a Estadia Azteca en Mexico, D.F.)
You know, I probably should somehow understand this line, but I just don't. Oakland barely beat Dallas, won, but failed to cover against Arizona and then lost to Frisco. Yet they are touchdown faves against the Cowboys. I think the crowd will be strongly pro-Dallas unless half of Los Angeles decides to make the trip down (did you know that Los Angeles has the second largest population of Mexicans in the world after Mexico, D.F.? And all of them are Raider fans.) I will probably pass on this one based on the uncertainty at quarterback for Dallas.
