The Mustangs will win if...
They take a deep breath, forget that this is their first bowl in 25 years, and maintain their focus in early minutes. A couple of quick scoring drives could place Nevada in a difficult position. SMU quarterback Kyle Padron will be charged with the task of exploiting the Wolf Pack's weak secondary. If he does, and wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders can find open space, the Mustangs could be celebrating a victory when the last second expires.
The Wolf Pack will win if...
They can maintain possession and quarterback Colin Kaepernick can get the nation's top rushing offense rolling. Nevada is without two of its best running backs ? Vai Taua and Luke Lippincott. Lampford Mark and Mike Ball will instead have to shoulder the load. If they can, the Nevada has a chance to dictate the terms of the game.
FOUR DOWNS: KEYS TO TONIGHT'S GAME
Score quickly
1
SMU has a quick-strike offense, and Nevada has a susceptible pass defense. Quarterback Kyle Padron and the Mustangs should be able to move the ball downfield. If they do, Nevada could be in serious trouble. With an offense that chews up yards on the ground, Nevada is not equipped to overcome large deficits. In three of its four losses, the Wolf Pack fell behind by large margins early and couldn't recover in time to salvage a victory.
Protect the QB
2
Throughout the season, Nevada has harassed quarterbacks with defensive ends Kevin Basped and Dontay Moch creating havoc off the edges. Together, Moch, the WAC Defensive Player of the Year, and Basped, an NFL prospect, have amassed 14 sacks and 30 tackles for loss. If SMU can mitigate the pressure applied to Kyle Padron, then the freshman can pick apart Nevada's subpar secondary.
Stop the run
3
For SMU, this will be a test in assignment football. Nevada's Pistol incorporates elements of the triple-option and Wing-T with the modern-day Spread. Since Ault installed the offense in 2005, the Wolf Pack has won at least six games each season. Luckily for SMU, the Mustangs have seen the Pistol (against Tulsa) and have defended a team that relies heavily on misdirection (Navy). They should be prepared.
Stay poised
4
This is SMU's first bowl appearance in 25 years, and consequently the current group of Mustangs has never been in this situation before. The anticipation and excitement will bubble to the surface before kickoff. But the Mustangs must keep their emotions in check and maintain their poise in the early moments, when the tone is likely to be established for the rest of the game.
HOW THEY MATCH UP
When SMU runs
Even though Shawnbrey McNeal became the first collegiate player under June Jones to gain more than 1,000 yards on the ground, the Mustangs are ranked 100th in the nation in rushing offense (112.8 yards per game). Nevada is 26th in the country in rush defense (114.7 yards per game).
EDGE: Nevada
When SMU passes
When starting quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell suffered an injury in an Oct. 24 loss to Houston, freshman Kyle Padron stepped in. Padron's best asset? His accuracy. He has completed 64 percent of his passes. Nevada's secondary is part of a pass defense that yields 284.3 yards per game and is next to last in the Football Bowl Subdivision.
EDGE: SMU
When Nevada passes
Since Nevada coach Chris Ault overhauled Nevada's playbook and installed the Pistol formation in 2005, the passing game has been an accessory rather than a main component. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has thrown for more than 200 yards twice this season. Even though SMU's pass defense is 82nd in the nation, don't expect Nevada to initiate an aerial assault.
EDGE: SMU
When Nevada runs
Nevada became the first school in NCAA history to have three 1,000-yard rushers in the same season. Kaepernick, Vai Taua and Luke Lippincott paced a ground attack that averaged 362.3 yards per game. But Taua was ruled academically for the bowl, and Lippincott tore ligaments in his left big toe last month. Little-used Lampford Mark and Mike Ball are expected to receive the bulk of the carries.
EDGE: Nevada
Special teams
SMU's Emmanuel Sanders has proven to be one of the best punt returners in the nation, returning one kick for a touchdown and averaging 15.4 yards. But the Mustangs' kickoff coverage has been particularly weak. The Mustangs have allowed two runbacks and an average of 25.9 yards per return. Only two teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision have yielded more. Nevada's special teams have rarely been a factor in their victories.
EDGE: SMU
Intangibles
This is SMU's first bowl in 25 years, June Jones is returning to the state where he coached for nine seasons and Nevada is missing two of its top three rushers. The Mustangs should have the mental edge before kickoff.
EDGE: SMU
They take a deep breath, forget that this is their first bowl in 25 years, and maintain their focus in early minutes. A couple of quick scoring drives could place Nevada in a difficult position. SMU quarterback Kyle Padron will be charged with the task of exploiting the Wolf Pack's weak secondary. If he does, and wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders can find open space, the Mustangs could be celebrating a victory when the last second expires.
The Wolf Pack will win if...
They can maintain possession and quarterback Colin Kaepernick can get the nation's top rushing offense rolling. Nevada is without two of its best running backs ? Vai Taua and Luke Lippincott. Lampford Mark and Mike Ball will instead have to shoulder the load. If they can, the Nevada has a chance to dictate the terms of the game.
FOUR DOWNS: KEYS TO TONIGHT'S GAME
Score quickly
1
SMU has a quick-strike offense, and Nevada has a susceptible pass defense. Quarterback Kyle Padron and the Mustangs should be able to move the ball downfield. If they do, Nevada could be in serious trouble. With an offense that chews up yards on the ground, Nevada is not equipped to overcome large deficits. In three of its four losses, the Wolf Pack fell behind by large margins early and couldn't recover in time to salvage a victory.
Protect the QB
2
Throughout the season, Nevada has harassed quarterbacks with defensive ends Kevin Basped and Dontay Moch creating havoc off the edges. Together, Moch, the WAC Defensive Player of the Year, and Basped, an NFL prospect, have amassed 14 sacks and 30 tackles for loss. If SMU can mitigate the pressure applied to Kyle Padron, then the freshman can pick apart Nevada's subpar secondary.
Stop the run
3
For SMU, this will be a test in assignment football. Nevada's Pistol incorporates elements of the triple-option and Wing-T with the modern-day Spread. Since Ault installed the offense in 2005, the Wolf Pack has won at least six games each season. Luckily for SMU, the Mustangs have seen the Pistol (against Tulsa) and have defended a team that relies heavily on misdirection (Navy). They should be prepared.
Stay poised
4
This is SMU's first bowl appearance in 25 years, and consequently the current group of Mustangs has never been in this situation before. The anticipation and excitement will bubble to the surface before kickoff. But the Mustangs must keep their emotions in check and maintain their poise in the early moments, when the tone is likely to be established for the rest of the game.
HOW THEY MATCH UP
When SMU runs
Even though Shawnbrey McNeal became the first collegiate player under June Jones to gain more than 1,000 yards on the ground, the Mustangs are ranked 100th in the nation in rushing offense (112.8 yards per game). Nevada is 26th in the country in rush defense (114.7 yards per game).
EDGE: Nevada
When SMU passes
When starting quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell suffered an injury in an Oct. 24 loss to Houston, freshman Kyle Padron stepped in. Padron's best asset? His accuracy. He has completed 64 percent of his passes. Nevada's secondary is part of a pass defense that yields 284.3 yards per game and is next to last in the Football Bowl Subdivision.
EDGE: SMU
When Nevada passes
Since Nevada coach Chris Ault overhauled Nevada's playbook and installed the Pistol formation in 2005, the passing game has been an accessory rather than a main component. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has thrown for more than 200 yards twice this season. Even though SMU's pass defense is 82nd in the nation, don't expect Nevada to initiate an aerial assault.
EDGE: SMU
When Nevada runs
Nevada became the first school in NCAA history to have three 1,000-yard rushers in the same season. Kaepernick, Vai Taua and Luke Lippincott paced a ground attack that averaged 362.3 yards per game. But Taua was ruled academically for the bowl, and Lippincott tore ligaments in his left big toe last month. Little-used Lampford Mark and Mike Ball are expected to receive the bulk of the carries.
EDGE: Nevada
Special teams
SMU's Emmanuel Sanders has proven to be one of the best punt returners in the nation, returning one kick for a touchdown and averaging 15.4 yards. But the Mustangs' kickoff coverage has been particularly weak. The Mustangs have allowed two runbacks and an average of 25.9 yards per return. Only two teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision have yielded more. Nevada's special teams have rarely been a factor in their victories.
EDGE: SMU
Intangibles
This is SMU's first bowl in 25 years, June Jones is returning to the state where he coached for nine seasons and Nevada is missing two of its top three rushers. The Mustangs should have the mental edge before kickoff.
EDGE: SMU
