Atlanta at FLORIDA
This game comes up with a mix in my capping. My dog system and $$ won show FLA as a play, but Millwood facing an unknown has me thinking ATL. With the pennant on the line, I have to think ATL bounces back today. They gagged away yesterday's game and wasted a great job by BURKETT (nothing new there!) and I think MILLWOOD will get it done. However, with BOTH teams combining for 1 run yesterday, it's fair to say that neither team is killing the ball. In fact, many trends point to the UNDER, and the HP UMP is 10-15 O/U on the year, though he is 3-1 O/U when the game is 8.5, he calls a fair game and the last four times the ROAD team was favored, the game has gone UNDER and the road team won 3. That being the case, I'm looking for another low scoring game and passing the side.
UNDER 8.5 -120
Cubs at PITT
ndnfan has a nice writeup on this game, check it out, and I have to agree. I think the CUBS know they have to pour it on NOW, and not tomorrow, and facing a weak team like PITT, whom they've beaten 8 of 11 is just what they need. They let one get away yesterday, and when they did that a week or so ago with CINC, they came back to win 10-0 the next day. Look for a blow out here...
CUBS -150
NY Mets at MONTREAL
PAVANO was terrible his first three times out, but has improved of late. Has he improved enough to beat the METS?? I don't know... APPIER has been tough lately after a cold start and with MONT struggling vs RH, this game is looking to be an UNDER. However, I don't have HP UMP info at this point so I'm passing for now, may post a total later.
Toronto at CLEVELAND
I gotta play TORONTO again! TOR is 11-4 when Carpenter starts on the road, and the MONEY WON favors TOR BIG TIME. TOR is +1625 on the road VS RH, and CLE is -1240 at home vs RH. That's a HUGE HUGE difference. I know CLE is solid in Game 2 of a series, but with JUAN (long gone) slumping, their lineup just doesn't have the same pop. Also, when's the last time THOME went deep. I like Toronto here again. EVERY game in this series went OVER, but two pushes last season, and I had the UNDER yesterday as P.O.D. due to the UMP. I don't buy into the OVER tonite nor the UNDER, I'll stick with the JAYS!
TORONTO +150 * they may be worth a look on the runline too. CLE may win this game, but with their OFF struggling, don't be surprised by a one run game again.
Tbay at NY YANKS
Can't back the DRAYS vs CLEMENS. I haven't gone against CLEMENS all year, don't plan on starting now. Maybe in the playoffs, but I doubt it! This game also has a HUGE MONEY OVERLAY as TBAY is -1175 on Road vs RH, and NYY is +1235 at home vs RH. With NYY playing their first HOME game since the tragedy, I'm thinking YANKS ROMP! They usually give ROGER plenty of support, so don't look for that to change with a huge rowdy crowd tonite. I'm looking at going OVER once I see the UMP and lineups, and taking NYY on the runline!
NYY -1.5 -140
Baltimore at BOSTON
As mentioned last nite, can't see BOST being favored by -165 over anyone right now. HOWEVER, tonite's matchup gives BOS a huge pitching difference as CASTILLO has been very solid lately and BALT is 5-12 when MERCEDES bends over the mound. BOSTON is struggling to score, only getting more than 2 twice in the past six games. I see CASTILLO holding BALT in check, so I'm looking for a 4-3 type game, you pick the winning side.
UNDER 9.5 EVEN
This game comes up with a mix in my capping. My dog system and $$ won show FLA as a play, but Millwood facing an unknown has me thinking ATL. With the pennant on the line, I have to think ATL bounces back today. They gagged away yesterday's game and wasted a great job by BURKETT (nothing new there!) and I think MILLWOOD will get it done. However, with BOTH teams combining for 1 run yesterday, it's fair to say that neither team is killing the ball. In fact, many trends point to the UNDER, and the HP UMP is 10-15 O/U on the year, though he is 3-1 O/U when the game is 8.5, he calls a fair game and the last four times the ROAD team was favored, the game has gone UNDER and the road team won 3. That being the case, I'm looking for another low scoring game and passing the side.
UNDER 8.5 -120
Cubs at PITT
ndnfan has a nice writeup on this game, check it out, and I have to agree. I think the CUBS know they have to pour it on NOW, and not tomorrow, and facing a weak team like PITT, whom they've beaten 8 of 11 is just what they need. They let one get away yesterday, and when they did that a week or so ago with CINC, they came back to win 10-0 the next day. Look for a blow out here...
CUBS -150
NY Mets at MONTREAL
PAVANO was terrible his first three times out, but has improved of late. Has he improved enough to beat the METS?? I don't know... APPIER has been tough lately after a cold start and with MONT struggling vs RH, this game is looking to be an UNDER. However, I don't have HP UMP info at this point so I'm passing for now, may post a total later.
Toronto at CLEVELAND
I gotta play TORONTO again! TOR is 11-4 when Carpenter starts on the road, and the MONEY WON favors TOR BIG TIME. TOR is +1625 on the road VS RH, and CLE is -1240 at home vs RH. That's a HUGE HUGE difference. I know CLE is solid in Game 2 of a series, but with JUAN (long gone) slumping, their lineup just doesn't have the same pop. Also, when's the last time THOME went deep. I like Toronto here again. EVERY game in this series went OVER, but two pushes last season, and I had the UNDER yesterday as P.O.D. due to the UMP. I don't buy into the OVER tonite nor the UNDER, I'll stick with the JAYS!
TORONTO +150 * they may be worth a look on the runline too. CLE may win this game, but with their OFF struggling, don't be surprised by a one run game again.
Tbay at NY YANKS
Can't back the DRAYS vs CLEMENS. I haven't gone against CLEMENS all year, don't plan on starting now. Maybe in the playoffs, but I doubt it! This game also has a HUGE MONEY OVERLAY as TBAY is -1175 on Road vs RH, and NYY is +1235 at home vs RH. With NYY playing their first HOME game since the tragedy, I'm thinking YANKS ROMP! They usually give ROGER plenty of support, so don't look for that to change with a huge rowdy crowd tonite. I'm looking at going OVER once I see the UMP and lineups, and taking NYY on the runline!
NYY -1.5 -140
Baltimore at BOSTON
As mentioned last nite, can't see BOST being favored by -165 over anyone right now. HOWEVER, tonite's matchup gives BOS a huge pitching difference as CASTILLO has been very solid lately and BALT is 5-12 when MERCEDES bends over the mound. BOSTON is struggling to score, only getting more than 2 twice in the past six games. I see CASTILLO holding BALT in check, so I'm looking for a 4-3 type game, you pick the winning side.
UNDER 9.5 EVEN
