Last week I had nice write ups for later games and my daughter came by and I didn?t get to post them so I will put both games up now. More plays than normal just because it is championship week.
Tampa Bay Versus Green Bay
Attack the weaknesses. Tampa Bay defense is number 1 against the run and 21st against the pass. Also 31st in completions against. Green Bay offense is #9 passing and 8th rushing. I think you need to look at a Green Bay receiver. Nothing looks all that good so I would say go with their best receiver Adams over 7.5 catches. He is 7-7 to this number on the year and 3-3 last 6 games. Against TB earlier in the year he had 10 targets and 6 receptions. If you are going to play a Green Bay player looking at receiving not rushing.
I have said before Green Bay weakness is there run defense. Problem is Tampa Bay offense is #2 passing and #28 rushing. I think they have to rush the ball. I am going with Jones II over 38.5 yards. Biggest concern is injury. They say he is healthy. On the year he is 10-5 to this number and 5-1 last 6. When he plays 50% of the snaps, he is 8-1 against this number. He also had 23 attempts for 113 yards the first game. I like this play the best on the day.
Green Bay has been good out of the gates on the season. I like the 10-1 odds on this play. Green Bay to win the first quarter and Tampa to win the game. Open the door to hedge during the game if Green Bay wins the first quarter and Tampa gets the lead.
Buffalo versus Kansas City
Again, go strength against weakness. KC number 1 passing offense and number 16 rushing. Buffalo is not strong defense with #13 passing and #17 rushing. The first game KC ran the ball for over 200 yards. Injuries make me think they change it up this game. Have to take a KC receiver. Kelce has a posted total of 8.5 receptions, and he has gone over that only twice on the year. Yards is 97.5 and he is 7-2 over that the last 9. Taking over 97.5 yards
Other side Buffalo offense is number 3 passing and #20 running. KC defense is #14 passing and number 20 rushing. Last time I went with injured Beasley and got burned. Going with Diggs over 7.5 which is a big number, but he is 5-2 last 7 to that number.
Fun prop in this game Buffalo one field goal in the first quarter plus 300.
Enjoy the games.
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star
Tampa Bay Versus Green Bay
Attack the weaknesses. Tampa Bay defense is number 1 against the run and 21st against the pass. Also 31st in completions against. Green Bay offense is #9 passing and 8th rushing. I think you need to look at a Green Bay receiver. Nothing looks all that good so I would say go with their best receiver Adams over 7.5 catches. He is 7-7 to this number on the year and 3-3 last 6 games. Against TB earlier in the year he had 10 targets and 6 receptions. If you are going to play a Green Bay player looking at receiving not rushing.
I have said before Green Bay weakness is there run defense. Problem is Tampa Bay offense is #2 passing and #28 rushing. I think they have to rush the ball. I am going with Jones II over 38.5 yards. Biggest concern is injury. They say he is healthy. On the year he is 10-5 to this number and 5-1 last 6. When he plays 50% of the snaps, he is 8-1 against this number. He also had 23 attempts for 113 yards the first game. I like this play the best on the day.
Green Bay has been good out of the gates on the season. I like the 10-1 odds on this play. Green Bay to win the first quarter and Tampa to win the game. Open the door to hedge during the game if Green Bay wins the first quarter and Tampa gets the lead.
Buffalo versus Kansas City
Again, go strength against weakness. KC number 1 passing offense and number 16 rushing. Buffalo is not strong defense with #13 passing and #17 rushing. The first game KC ran the ball for over 200 yards. Injuries make me think they change it up this game. Have to take a KC receiver. Kelce has a posted total of 8.5 receptions, and he has gone over that only twice on the year. Yards is 97.5 and he is 7-2 over that the last 9. Taking over 97.5 yards
Other side Buffalo offense is number 3 passing and #20 running. KC defense is #14 passing and number 20 rushing. Last time I went with injured Beasley and got burned. Going with Diggs over 7.5 which is a big number, but he is 5-2 last 7 to that number.
Fun prop in this game Buffalo one field goal in the first quarter plus 300.
Enjoy the games.
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star
