More plays than normal just because it is the Super Bowl.
Tampa Bay Versus Kansas City
Attack the weaknesses. Tampa Bay defense is number 1 against the run and 21st against the pass. Also 31st in completions against. KC number 1 passing offense and number 16 rushing. The first game KC dominated and threw the ball all day. Have to take a KC receiver over. Kelce Over total of 7.5 receptions He is 9-1 to this number the last 10 games and he had 8 against TB in the first game.
I am also going with Mahomes over 28.5 completions. He is just 5-5 to this number the last 10 games but had 37 completions against Tampa in their earlier meeting. In the Super Bowl last year, he was 26/42 against a good San Francisco defense. I just feel with the strength of Tampa?s defense the run that KC is going to throw the ball.
On the other side KC defense is #14 passing and number 20 rushing. Tampa Bay offense is #2 in passing and 28th rushing. This is a little less clear because TB seems to either spread the ball around or maybe it is one player has a big game and the rest don?t. I tend to like to play overs by the way and not unders. So, for instance Godwin total is 5.5 and he would be 0-7 the last 7 games to this number. He did have 9 targets and 8 receptions in the game against KC. Evans total is 4.5 and he is 1-4 and 5-5 the last 10 games. Had 9 targets and 3 receptions against KC. Gronk total is 2.5 he is 0-5 and 2-9 the last 11. He had 7 targets and 6 receptions against KC. None of these give me confidence.
I do think that for TB to be successful they need to run the ball. Jones is their most explosive runner. He was hurt before the game against Green Bay and I got burned because it showed. Fournette got the majority of the running. I am hoping that he has healed in the last two weeks and gets his carries. If Jones does over 35.5 yards will be a gift. He had 10 carries for 66 yards against KC. So, I am playing Jones over 35.5 Yards.
I know he is the GOAT, but father time doesn?t care. The games I have watched him he has not looked like the GOAT. He can?t throw the deep ball and made some horrible decisions. He got intercepted 3 times in the Green Bay game and it should have been more. Even if someone plays well, they can throw an INT on a hail Mary at the half or end of the game. KC had the 5th highest number of interceptions on the season. TB had 6 games against teams in the top 10 in interceptions and Brady threw 7 interceptions in those games including 2 against KC. The other reason for this play is strictly a number play. The posted total is 56. The only way that happens is for teams to pass the ball. The posted total for attempts is 39.5 More pass the more chances for interceptions or tipped ball or something else that results in an interception. I am also playing Brady to throw an interception.
The line for the winner winning by 7.5 or more is minus 110. So, they are telling you the winner could easily win by more than 7 points. I am playing KC on an alternate line plus money minus 6.5 plus 150. Also, will play some at minus 9.5 plus 200. I don?t think the Super Bowl is the game to get conservative with a lead. If you have a chance run it up. I like the odds on this TB win first quarter and KC wins the game plus 525. Might add more plays. Enjoy the game.
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star
Tampa Bay Versus Kansas City
Attack the weaknesses. Tampa Bay defense is number 1 against the run and 21st against the pass. Also 31st in completions against. KC number 1 passing offense and number 16 rushing. The first game KC dominated and threw the ball all day. Have to take a KC receiver over. Kelce Over total of 7.5 receptions He is 9-1 to this number the last 10 games and he had 8 against TB in the first game.
I am also going with Mahomes over 28.5 completions. He is just 5-5 to this number the last 10 games but had 37 completions against Tampa in their earlier meeting. In the Super Bowl last year, he was 26/42 against a good San Francisco defense. I just feel with the strength of Tampa?s defense the run that KC is going to throw the ball.
On the other side KC defense is #14 passing and number 20 rushing. Tampa Bay offense is #2 in passing and 28th rushing. This is a little less clear because TB seems to either spread the ball around or maybe it is one player has a big game and the rest don?t. I tend to like to play overs by the way and not unders. So, for instance Godwin total is 5.5 and he would be 0-7 the last 7 games to this number. He did have 9 targets and 8 receptions in the game against KC. Evans total is 4.5 and he is 1-4 and 5-5 the last 10 games. Had 9 targets and 3 receptions against KC. Gronk total is 2.5 he is 0-5 and 2-9 the last 11. He had 7 targets and 6 receptions against KC. None of these give me confidence.
I do think that for TB to be successful they need to run the ball. Jones is their most explosive runner. He was hurt before the game against Green Bay and I got burned because it showed. Fournette got the majority of the running. I am hoping that he has healed in the last two weeks and gets his carries. If Jones does over 35.5 yards will be a gift. He had 10 carries for 66 yards against KC. So, I am playing Jones over 35.5 Yards.
I know he is the GOAT, but father time doesn?t care. The games I have watched him he has not looked like the GOAT. He can?t throw the deep ball and made some horrible decisions. He got intercepted 3 times in the Green Bay game and it should have been more. Even if someone plays well, they can throw an INT on a hail Mary at the half or end of the game. KC had the 5th highest number of interceptions on the season. TB had 6 games against teams in the top 10 in interceptions and Brady threw 7 interceptions in those games including 2 against KC. The other reason for this play is strictly a number play. The posted total is 56. The only way that happens is for teams to pass the ball. The posted total for attempts is 39.5 More pass the more chances for interceptions or tipped ball or something else that results in an interception. I am also playing Brady to throw an interception.
The line for the winner winning by 7.5 or more is minus 110. So, they are telling you the winner could easily win by more than 7 points. I am playing KC on an alternate line plus money minus 6.5 plus 150. Also, will play some at minus 9.5 plus 200. I don?t think the Super Bowl is the game to get conservative with a lead. If you have a chance run it up. I like the odds on this TB win first quarter and KC wins the game plus 525. Might add more plays. Enjoy the game.
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star
