Will Post my plays here in a second but after reading several threads in here about "public plays" I wanted to ask a question? How do you decide what a public play is?
Some people will go to a consensus site and see who many people have chosen and think the opposite is to go against the grain. For example one of those sites has 63% on the Steelers, therefore the Steelers would be the go against in this spot, but wait. Who is picking here? Just anyone is someone picking more than once, could someone be purposely inflating numbers? Probably not, but still something to consider. I have heard people to go to sites like this and scan the posts and go against forums as well, the only problem here is you would assume for the most part many put some time into picks in here so you would think you would want the public to be the ones who blindly make picks and don't do much research, although that is open for debate.
Others look at opening lines to see who the public is betting on. For example the Eagles at one point were listed at 5.5 and have seen a 6 here and there so the money is coming in on the Eagles. In this situation if you were going to go strictly anti-public the Cowboys would be the play. Sometimes you can get the line going in one direction but the consenus in the other so what happens in this case?
The perfect example is the Chiefs/Broncos. The Consensus site would suggest 63% on the Chiefs and the Broncos would be the call, but the line has moved from 2.5 to 3 in some places suggesting that money is being placed on the home team, so which way to go? Somewhere something would be skewed in this theory. The best theory I have heard to explain this is that "Joe Public" is on the chiefs in this spot and the "smart money" is on the Broncos so it explains the line move. As hard as it is to swallow and prove it does have it's points.
So my questions are this:
Where or how do you decide who the public is on?
Do you think it is worthy of a handicapping tool?
Input appreciated as I wpould like to start using this and would like to break it down to a science.
s c OO p
Some people will go to a consensus site and see who many people have chosen and think the opposite is to go against the grain. For example one of those sites has 63% on the Steelers, therefore the Steelers would be the go against in this spot, but wait. Who is picking here? Just anyone is someone picking more than once, could someone be purposely inflating numbers? Probably not, but still something to consider. I have heard people to go to sites like this and scan the posts and go against forums as well, the only problem here is you would assume for the most part many put some time into picks in here so you would think you would want the public to be the ones who blindly make picks and don't do much research, although that is open for debate.
Others look at opening lines to see who the public is betting on. For example the Eagles at one point were listed at 5.5 and have seen a 6 here and there so the money is coming in on the Eagles. In this situation if you were going to go strictly anti-public the Cowboys would be the play. Sometimes you can get the line going in one direction but the consenus in the other so what happens in this case?
The perfect example is the Chiefs/Broncos. The Consensus site would suggest 63% on the Chiefs and the Broncos would be the call, but the line has moved from 2.5 to 3 in some places suggesting that money is being placed on the home team, so which way to go? Somewhere something would be skewed in this theory. The best theory I have heard to explain this is that "Joe Public" is on the chiefs in this spot and the "smart money" is on the Broncos so it explains the line move. As hard as it is to swallow and prove it does have it's points.
So my questions are this:
Where or how do you decide who the public is on?
Do you think it is worthy of a handicapping tool?
Input appreciated as I wpould like to start using this and would like to break it down to a science.
s c OO p
