Someone recently posted a great thread that garnished any responses on squares betting baseball or going against public opinion. Just thought I would throw in my thoughts on this and focus it on today?s picks. I do think squares (like me) bet baseball but the anti-public role used in football or basketball has a different role here. Let me explain. In basketball let?s say the lakers are playing the bulls giving 14 and the public is all over the Lakers. Well you can take the points and cover when the bulls do not win the game, so if 70% are on the lakers they will be losers because if you go against the consensus and play the Bulls they just have to come within the number. In baseball it is much different, as the team will have to lose so let?s say the Yankees are playing the tigers. The public could be 70/30 for the Yankees but it may not be an automatic go against because the tigers do not have to come within 14 points, they have to win outright. Therefore I think the numbers can be a bit masked. You can rarely find a time when a consensus play is on a dog and that may be the only time you can find an edge going against the public.
For tonight I just so happened to look for a consensus and grabbing over 70% it would seem that the Blue Jays, Twins, and Indians all fit in this category. So at this point you would have to go with the padres against a lefty, the pirates against the hot hitting Blue jays, and the worst road team on the planet in the Rockies. You can throw in line movement and you get even more in your favor as the lines I see (may be different depending on where you look) have all moved in your favor if you take these bad clubs showing that the public money is coming in on these teams. The Indians opened at ?155 and is now as high as 160 but as a note I have also seen it at 153, but the jays opened at 185 and is now 2-1, and the twins opened at 178 and is high as 185. A quick note on the line movement anyone who follows these movement should realize the higher the line the more drastic the movement.
So anyone taking these bad teams has line movement and anti-public going for them but you might want to bring some antacids along for the ride too. So unless I am going to get these dogs with 14 points I am not touching them, but I do have another idea.
So my thought is to look at the dogs that the public is on. The Giants and the Braves. Who can blame them, both good teams and decent pitchers on the mound too so no wonder they register in the id to high 60 percentile considering the public. However if you take a shot on the White Sox and the A?s you get two good teams at home, playing well, with decent pitchers of their own, AND your going against the public. Not to mention that you give your stomach a break from putting your cash on the padres.
White sox -120 & A's -118
s c OO p
For tonight I just so happened to look for a consensus and grabbing over 70% it would seem that the Blue Jays, Twins, and Indians all fit in this category. So at this point you would have to go with the padres against a lefty, the pirates against the hot hitting Blue jays, and the worst road team on the planet in the Rockies. You can throw in line movement and you get even more in your favor as the lines I see (may be different depending on where you look) have all moved in your favor if you take these bad clubs showing that the public money is coming in on these teams. The Indians opened at ?155 and is now as high as 160 but as a note I have also seen it at 153, but the jays opened at 185 and is now 2-1, and the twins opened at 178 and is high as 185. A quick note on the line movement anyone who follows these movement should realize the higher the line the more drastic the movement.
So anyone taking these bad teams has line movement and anti-public going for them but you might want to bring some antacids along for the ride too. So unless I am going to get these dogs with 14 points I am not touching them, but I do have another idea.
So my thought is to look at the dogs that the public is on. The Giants and the Braves. Who can blame them, both good teams and decent pitchers on the mound too so no wonder they register in the id to high 60 percentile considering the public. However if you take a shot on the White Sox and the A?s you get two good teams at home, playing well, with decent pitchers of their own, AND your going against the public. Not to mention that you give your stomach a break from putting your cash on the padres.
White sox -120 & A's -118
s c OO p
