Puck By Jake.....Sun March 9

[Jake DeNiro]

3* Boston/Chicago Under 5 (+110) Lost -300

I don't think Passmore will be in net today for Chicago, after that #### performance against Dallas the other night. It's funny how things stick with you and how they affect your capping. Should have went 4-0 last night as I also liked a 2* on Buffalo and a 3* on the Under, but didn't end up playing when I found out Norenen was starting. But if the same situation came up again, I'd make the same decision. It all evens out in the end. Hopefully things will start going my way, as I've had some Unders go over late...Toronto/Buffalo...N.Y/Philly etc.....For the case of playing or fading, will be posting more games later....

Yesterday: 2-0 (+310)
Year To Date: 15-14 (-750)
3 day losing streak ended

 

[Jake DeNiro]

Adding.....

Adding.....

3* Tampa Bay -1/2 (-180)Lost -540
2* Buffalo/Tampa Bay Under 5 (-115)Won +200

I never lay -1/2 -180...and I could go with the ML of -280, but with there always being a chance of losing, I'm only willing to lose 540 instead of 840 as I ask myself "will I be pissed if I lose 840?"
The Answer is Yes, because that's an extra 3* play at even money that I have to win.

Not one for writeups as I usually don't have time after capping and reading, but since I layed the -180 and someone might be following, my reasoning for this play is, after their last game against Colorado, in which they came back from being down 3-0 to win 4-3, I believe that they carry that confidence and momentum into todays game against a Sabres team who beat them 4-1 in February in Tampa Bay. Now having only played 6 games since that lose to the Sabres, this game should still be fresh in their minds and the word written on the blackboard in the dressing room should read "BUFFALO SABRES REVENGE GAME MARCH 9....we lost here at home by 3 goals" Also since that lose to Buffalo, the Lightning have been playing good hockey. With the HOME TEAMS in CAPITALS, look at what they've done since that lose. Beat Anaheim 2-0, tie CAROLINA 2-2, beat Florida 2-1, beat OTTAWA 2-1, beat N.Y.ISLANDERS 3-1, lose to Detroit 2-3, and then beat Colorado 4-3. We also have to go back to Feb 11 to find a game in which they have been beaten by 3 or more goals.....they lost to the N.Y.ISLANDERS 6-2 and then avenged that loss March 4th beating the ISLANDERS in N.Y 3-1....exactly where they lost 6-2. Also can't see Buffalo, who are averaging 1.9 goals on the road and sitting 28th offensively, scoring much against a Lightning team who sits 16th defensively allowing 2.5 goals against. Going with the Under also as I believe Buffalo who have scored 8 goals in their last 2 games, will be held tighter defensively as they Tampa is also aware of the 8 goals in the L2. Buffalo's L5 game averages are 3.0/1.8 and don't forget the 8 goals are in that average. The Lightning's L5 games averages are 2.8/1.8. The Sabres are also in a 3 in 4 situation and even though travel really isn't a factor, they still played last night. Tampa Bay doesn't play again until Wed, when the L.A.Kings come to town, and then Friday they go to Buffalo. They will win this game today, as they can't go into Buffalo on a two game losing streak to the Sabres.

 

[Jake DeNiro]

Adding.....

Adding.....

1* Anaheim +1/2 (+110)Won +110
1* Detroit/Anaheim Under 5 (+110)Push
1* San Jose +1' (-105) Lost -105