Guys, does anyone have a thought about the ump in the Atl/Houst game? The home team is 24-10 when he is behind home plate. I wonder if that holds up in the playoffs?
Question about an ump?
- Thread starter layinwood
- Start date
NJO, I too follow the umps for over and unders and would like to personally thank a couple for all the unders that I have won. Now back to the ump in the braves game. In football and basketball we all know that home teams get more calls going theyre way. Thus leading to home field or court advantages. Now I know that not all umps are like this, but when an ump is 24-10 favoring the home team there may just be something to it. Whos to say hes not swayed by 60,000 people in the stands booing or chearing. I would never handicap a game soley based on the ump but when hes behind home plate and the home team wins those games 70% of the time I think it may deserve a second look. Again, I just want to win money on this game and I'm looking at every angle I can. Looking for more comments to help.
layinwood, if you have read my posts, you know I follow umps pretty close. In the play-offs I've found that you can't pay much attention to them being an under ump or a homer. More important is their strike zone. I don't know if it is because the league is watching closer but they seem to fav pitching more in the play-offs.
gsp, good info, though I do think a totals-biased ump can stil be looked at in the post-season.
Ultimately, my capping ignores umps with the exception of umps who demonstrate a significant bias on totals -- in those cases, I would not go the other way.
So, if today's ump was 24 under and 10 over this year, if I played the total I would either play under or nothing.
These umps have too much to lose in the playoffs to be swayed by home crowds -- any sort of bias would likely be relatively obvious, which would be judged harshly in this day where the umps now actually have some accountability.
Ultimately, my capping ignores umps with the exception of umps who demonstrate a significant bias on totals -- in those cases, I would not go the other way.
So, if today's ump was 24 under and 10 over this year, if I played the total I would either play under or nothing.
These umps have too much to lose in the playoffs to be swayed by home crowds -- any sort of bias would likely be relatively obvious, which would be judged harshly in this day where the umps now actually have some accountability.
layinwood,
I too rely on umpire info a great deal. If I'd stayed away from the first games in a series this year, my profits would be much higher. Plain and simple, didn't now the HPU before I palced the wager.
As gsp mentioned, don't place much into umpire information now. I concentrate on line ups versus SP and how well they play vs RP/LP in general. BP's are also very important.
Not much into trends ever, even less so in the playoffs.
I strayed away from this with the Yankees a little bit. Not really ashamed for taking the Yankees last night though, as I really felt Pettite would put up a strong performance. He didn't disappoint and didn't lose sleep over my pick. A great game to watch, I might add.
Now, someone please tell me to stay away from the Yankees.
kcwolf
I too rely on umpire info a great deal. If I'd stayed away from the first games in a series this year, my profits would be much higher. Plain and simple, didn't now the HPU before I palced the wager.
As gsp mentioned, don't place much into umpire information now. I concentrate on line ups versus SP and how well they play vs RP/LP in general. BP's are also very important.
Not much into trends ever, even less so in the playoffs.
I strayed away from this with the Yankees a little bit. Not really ashamed for taking the Yankees last night though, as I really felt Pettite would put up a strong performance. He didn't disappoint and didn't lose sleep over my pick. A great game to watch, I might add.
Now, someone please tell me to stay away from the Yankees.
kcwolf
