Question About Fading NYY

[Nolan Dalla]

Okay, here' what I've been thinking -- I'd like some feedback from the more knowledgable as to whether or not this is a good idea:

In past season, I have done quite well fading the first-place teams in the final month of the season (this resumes there WILL be a final month in 2002). I particularly look for games where the top teams are giving the first-team some time off and may be going with an abbreviated lineup. I can remember last season and the year before, cashing some very nice tickets on Tampa Bay over the Yankees at upwards of $240 and so forth.

Now, my question is -- with NYY comfortably ahead of Boston in the AL East (8 games, I think), and top closer M. Rivera on the DL for 15-days or longer, might the Yankees be prime fade materail over the next two weeks?

This takes several factors into account -- no Rivera (huge dropoff in bullpen without him), complacency on the part of Yankees in first-place with no challenger, and of course opponets giving a little extra effort when playing the Yankees.

The record shows that if you were to go against Yankees every gaem to date in the season, you would be up a small about -- about $400 based on $100 per play. But those numbers have tapered off in the closing weeks since linesmakers fail to make the adjustments to the numbers with lots of new faces and subsitutions, combined with mixed motivatation.

I would think Rivera out of the lineup duing this period will not be factored into the line, as much as it should be. The Yankees wil continue to be -200 favorites in many games, especially at home.

Question -- am I overreacting the Rivera's absence from the lineup and does his injury create a much stronger value now to fade this team?

All thoughts welcome.

Nolan Dalla

 

[DNOMYAR_5791]

NOLAN

NOLAN

I am not one of the fabled baseball gods in here but I am no dummy. There will be excellent value in fading the Yankees alone, because they will be overpriced till the end of the year, as they only have 7 games left vs. teams with winning records. 5 with Boston, and 2 with the Angels. With that being said, I would imagine that if there is a rest of the season and the 40 man roster coming soon you will see a lot of starters playing less and lots of "no names" pitching. Hope I have provided a little help. Good luck to you!

 

[sdf]

nyy may have an edge on boston, but they are only 3 ahead of minnesota for best record in AL. i assume the team with the best record plays the wild card and gets HFA thru the AL playoffs?

there still is some incentive there


no rivera hurts the pitching for sure.

 

[dr. freeze]

i look at it like this:

incentive had been there for yankees all year

bad teams NOW have incentive to knock off the top dogs.....after dog days which they really don't care playing out the summer with season despaired. Now with young guys up and rest of team because of their mediocrity (how else are they this bad) competing for spot for next year -- i think incentive is back for bad teams this time of year.....plus, they get more attention when playing against a contender and what is better than to knowck off the top dogs to salvage a bad year.....

bad teams play looser, more aggressively, and more enthusiastically this time of year....compound this play against teams that are struggling and losing position (Seattle) and playing as to not lose their position

Yanks are overvalued too and the over should also carry a little more weight as their pen gets overworked and is shaky

 

[Livin' Large]

I don't think you're overestimating the loss of Rivera, but don't think for a second that New York will coast to the finish line because it has an 8 game lead on Boston. The Yankees hate to lose more than any team in professional sports, no matter what is at stake. Steinbrenner, Cashman, Torre and the players refuse to accept any loss. Like SDF said, the Yankees are playing for best record in the AL, and most likely, best record in MLB as well. That's just their mentality.

 

[yyz]

I say handicap the game, and not the circumstances.

You handicap all season based on certain criteria, so changing now is unwise.

If you truly see a spot where you like Tampa at +230, bet it. But to just blindly hope that the Yankees are going to start caring less, seems a bit risky. There will be situations where you like the dog, but I would never just wing it based on a perception that a team can coast.

I don't know what history shows about this, so I can't say with certainty that you aren't on to something, but I would not risk it.

With the idea of a pending strike, why would anyone want to play "all out"?

Also, do you think that teams like Tampa really give a shit if they can "put it to" the Yankees in the last month, when all they want to do is pack their bags? These guys want one thing........a plane ride home after the game.

 

[freelancc]

FADING

FADING

i agree.. I see the Atlanta Braves also as a prime contender to relax and coast into the playoffs. Already they have lost their focus. I see them as a good "fade" candidate

 

[dr. freeze]

YYZ

I disagree with about everything you said in your post.....

You ALWAYS use circumstances to handicap games........if you do not, you might as well not even handicap

Also -- no one packs it in a month early -- You don't understand an athlete's mindset if you think that guys are just going to pack it in now from TB and play it out.....maybe this might happen in the last series or more likely the last game -- if meaningless.....but for a team that has played meaningless games for two months to now be able to be a factor in a pennant race -- that is a huge swing in mindset........

No one said anything about blindly playing games -- and I don't know why you jumped to the conclusion about that -- but their are factors out there that add or subtract value to games, series, homestands, and yes even a month of a season. The Yankees depth chart in the bullpen just lost one guy -- not only is the late 8th adn 9th not a sure thing anymore, the 6th and 7th may be harder to get through as well....and as Stanton and other guys are used more and more, wear and tear makes it more of a factor

Teams play tight and loose. Individuals play tight and loose. Figuring out who is playing what type of ball right now and calling it correctly will win you $$ this time of year. The season changes in all sports. Different months of the year REQUIRE knowledge of the mindsets of players and teams in EVERY sport. Tossing this factor out as negligible is a huge mistake in handicapping. It is as much a mistake to toss this out as is tossing out contrarian thinking in my view.

To what degree the strike plays on this all is yet another factor one must try to deal with. Right now, the impending strike doesn't seem to be causing much difference in the way teams approach things (difference to the norm this time of year anyway) in my opinion.

 

[yyz]

Freeze,

You can't read too much into anything. Kinda like the "wind" at Wrigley.

"Oh, the wind is blowing out! The over is a lock!"

Are you gonna bet the wind, or bet the game? Sure, you can factor in the wind, and should, but it should not become the focal point of your reason to look at the game.

I guess you can use mental statistics over the whole season, instead of at season's end.

The line makers are one step ahead in figuring this stuff out, too. Don't you think they know these things, too?


I just don't feel these "circumstances" warrant this much ink. The good teams are still good, and the bad teams bad. NYY and Seattle don't want to coast, as it could mean losing the sharp edge that a team needs to be a success.

I remember people hooting last year about the Mariners laying low once things were locked up. I believe they never did "lay down".

As for no one packing it in a month early..........well, that may be so, but I would rather put my eggs on a shit team getting shittier, than a good team "resting" and not caring if they win or not.

That's just me, perhaps.

 

[dr. freeze]

not every team will "lay down" -- no one will in fact.....no one wants to do that.....BUT teams play tight, loose, and problems such as a lost reliever are compounded over time

lots of time public opinion is wrong -- in fact, most of the time....that is what bookies play to.....BUT how much of the public is going to play ON Seattle because they NEED to win as opposed to the ones who will not play on Seattle becasue they are playing tight?

I would argue that more people will play on Seattle right now and a false value is created because of it......public still sees the 109 or whatever they won last year and sees them playing the lowly Tigers

Also public thinks that teams such as TB and Tigers have nothing to play for......my argument is to the contrary and as to why there is much value in playing on them