How do you cap baseball? I do football and basketball, but have no idea how you do it for baseball.
Question for all you baseball cappers?
- Thread starter flyer9853
- Start date
I?m not the best but I?ll answer when I have more time at work, when I stick to what I know I do good, baseball is a long season and these are the pitfalls I try to avoid.....
1. Being patient and play a limited amount of games, it?s easy to force plays.
2. Avoiding tilt
3. betting the late games drunk or buzzed. Weekends I?m at the camper and sports book money isn?t like losing money out of wallet when buzzed bettin the Saturday late game.
4. I?ll think of more by tonight
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don't use real money bro, best way, ask the dude who keeps changing his name on here :SIB
I've lost plenty and learned a bunch of shit that way. NFL probably my best sport. Great cappers here, would like to hear more from them. Definitely find your own style. Bleedin is straight though from a money management deal.
I generally look at a couple sites to look at possible plays that day. Definitely emphasize what Vegas is saying and where money is going. (I know theres controversy here, I use one site, and go off those, never more than 1 to try and keep it straight across the board) Obviously you can't just use that, but I tend to lead from that viewpoint. Then I look at starters vs batters history, latest bullpen use, gut feel based on certain game situations. Is the home team off a longa ss road trip and just glad to be home? Or damn I thought Scherzer should be -250 against the Braves at home, why only -210..Or shit whats Bad Angel got today to verify a play??..blah blah blah...Sometimes its better to find a reason NOT to make a play, than one to make a play.
I'm finding there is some validity to streaks, but nothing is ever fool proof. In my case, over a certain amount of time, I saw I'd make a play, lose, then I'd see that play win the following day. One of those things you learn as you go. Unfortunately its tough to make money grinding everyday. Its definitely a hobby for me as I ain't no madjacker millionaire. Biggest thing is don't lose more than you can afford..ultimately, that's the key, well my .02 cents :0008
Baseball always adapts through the season as after about 60 games the cream starts to rise and the weak will start to sink. there will be several teams who start hot and will stay hot and there are others who will do the opposite. Here is just some rules of thumb
Never ever think a good team can?t be swept, case in point there were several posts about Dodgers avoiding the seeep, Arizona didn?t care and swept them so teams can get swept.
Certain teams who were good last year won?t be good this year and will be over priced and vice versa, some will be good who weren?t and be under priced.
I like to look at good pitchers who have pitched well and lost then come back with them their next start.
if a big time pitcher has a line drop I stay far far far away. If Sale is -200 then dips down I don?t play the Redsox no way
remember even your worst teams will win 62 - 75 games for the most part.
I can go on and on.
Never ever think a good team can?t be swept, case in point there were several posts about Dodgers avoiding the seeep, Arizona didn?t care and swept them so teams can get swept.
Certain teams who were good last year won?t be good this year and will be over priced and vice versa, some will be good who weren?t and be under priced.
I like to look at good pitchers who have pitched well and lost then come back with them their next start.
if a big time pitcher has a line drop I stay far far far away. If Sale is -200 then dips down I don?t play the Redsox no way
remember even your worst teams will win 62 - 75 games for the most part.
I can go on and on.
If you want to see how to really handicap a baseball game, do a search on a former poster ndnfan. Go to his last post (page 12 of posts is what I show) and check out his write-ups. That?s how you handicap a baseball game.:toast:
Man, I sure wish he was still around here!!:0008
Man, I sure wish he was still around here!!:0008
You got me curious, heleanth, but I can't find what you're referring to; either the page 12 in the mlb forum (tried 13, 14 etc) or by a search for 'ndnfan's posts.
I'm just curious what angles, etc, were discussed. If you link to the post, within, then such would transcend cooldom.
I had some of my own words I was going to post but I got a little too wasted watching the Leafs reverse my goaltending comments anti-jinx and the Bolts saving my bacon.
Maybe tomorrow.
I'm still looking for what I'm missing. z'why I ask.
btw, welcome to the mayhem, flyer9853.
Maybe IE can understand my post. I?m not familiar with how to link. I went to advance search. I typed ?ndnfan? without the quotes in the user name. His posts came up earliest post first, so I went to his last post (on the 12th page).
Thanks, IE, but that?s not the one I was talking about. He also had the batting averages of every starting player vs the opposing pitcher. Bull pen numbers. Umpire history. Weather effects. He was very thorough. :toast:
Thanks, IE. That?s not the write-up I was thinking of though. He had batting averages vs the opposing pitcher. Umpire history. Weather effects. Bullpen statistics at home or on the road. He was very thorough.
Thanks for the good advice everybody.
Also I was wondering...... what do you all think about betting baseball using a chase system and applying martingale or labby to it? Good or bad?
Also I was wondering...... what do you all think about betting baseball using a chase system and applying martingale or labby to it? Good or bad?
Ouch.
That could get expensive in a hurry. Especially as you have no idea what kind of line you'll be looking at chasing with for the subsequent games. If you do it with a crappy team then you could be looking at a long losing streak. If you do it with the Yankees, say, then you will likely be looking at hefty prices.
I actually used the pyramid scheme playing blackjack in Calgary, about (holy fuck) 30 years ago (am I that old?), and it actually worked great for a few years; $25 limits then and I went 3/6/12/24. Tons of hands per hour and if I lost 4 straight I'd go back to the $3. Any 15 wins, at any bet, would cover the 4-straight losses and--what can I tell you--it worked.
Since then, I've read scathing criticisms of such system, in particular for blackjack, but I've read criticisms of happiness, if yaknowhatimean.
Ask me why I stopped the system and I couldn't tel you.
All I remember is 1989 I got a license to flip boards at the same places.
Easiest job I ever had but too many breaks with free coffee, hence the origins or my cigarette addiction.
Anywho, GL.
I'll try to add something more useful soon, barring whatevas.
