question for the guys that know what they are doing

[zac]

i was looking at last season (nfl) and after running some numbers, i discovered that if you played every dog in the entire season (last year only) you hit 75% of the time. would like to compile other seasons past and see if this is unusual, but here's the breakdown:

underdogs won 148 games and lost 111 games (actually 58%) after figuring 10% juice you would net out +26 units.

what do you guys think- is this typical or was last year just a freak year? :shrug: historically, i have been a horrible NFL bettor. just trying to find a way to bet the games and not get my arse kicked.


thanks for your input

zac

 

[hogman14]

As a dog player myself, here is my stance on the issue:

With so much parody in the league, it seems absurd (to me) to start yourself behind in the race by laying points. Although one can still "ride a team" that will cover weeks in and out, generally it is not a "powerhouse." During the 99 season when the Rams went 13-3 ATS, they were 250-1 to win the SB starting off, not the big name team they are now. I know I'm steering away from the issue a little here, but bear with me. A line is set not to recieve equal action on both sides, but to makes the sportsbooks money. Therefore, they will try to entice a bettor to say "wow, Philly should definitely cover by 10 over cincinnatti" Keep in mind, however, that these guys making these lines have a HUGE edge over the bettors, thus the reason they stay in business...simple concept, do what you do right, and stay in business, do what you do wrong, you're on the strip. Keep in mind also that the "public" has a tendency to lean toward the Favorites, and the Overs. Their perception is that the favorite is just a better team, and as i made reference to earlier, this is rarely the case now.

So, the dogs have been barking the past few years, and they will more than ever this year. The term "any given sunday" epitomizes the NFL's current state.

one more thing....generally there are 4 home dogs per week. generally 3/4 cover. keep that in mind!

 

[fletcher]

I am sure when IE sees thread he will either have the numbers for about 3-5 years back somewhere in his tons of stats, if it is a stat he can get it or has it most of the time he already has it.

Not knocking your thought but that is like playing blind and just asking to get drilled. Try to cut down to 6 teams and key on them and might make it some what better for you. do sides and totals learn them inside out then just plug in the opp they play each week and might get a better feel.

good luck

 

[fletcher]

also as easy as it might sound just by picking the winning team they cover almost 60% of the time either dog or fav. the point spread does not really come into effect on the sides. Watch it happens more years then not. so it might seem easy to just pick the winner but it is not but if you can you should cover more then you don't with out points even effecting your out come.

 

[IE]

Are you stating underdogs won 75% of the time last season?

And what is the goal.......to make investments on all dogs?,not sure?




Clearly and rightfully so Fletcher and others, have alluded that this is not a wise ROI,very clearly,

need more claification......

 

[djv]

Im a litte confused also. Are you saying for all games played last year 75% of the dogs coverd ATS. That seems off.

 

[zac]

thanks fletcher, ie, hogman& djv- really appreciate ya'lls opinions

to clarify-it was actually 58%- i just remembered someone here at madjacks at some point mid-season stated they (DOGS) had covered 75%. ran some numbers myself and on a $100 bet on every dog (regular season) dogs went 58% 148-111. after juice you would still net out $2590.

:shrug: this could be wrong- just wondering if this is typical. and like fletcher said- if need to eliminate terds (ie cinncinnatti bengals last season)

thanks again guys!
zac

 

[BigTymePlayer]

Usually if you play a home team who is getting points that works out pretty well. Dont know the stats to support this but if i rememeber most home teams cover the spread when they are the dog.

btp

 

[Sixth Sense]

Dogs did very well last year but that was an aberration. Since 1983, they are a break even investment.

Year Wins Losses Ties %
1983 115 98 8 54.0%
1984 111 108 3 50.7%
1985 100 114 4 46.7%
1986 117 100 5 53.9%
1987 114 89 3 56.2%
1988 113 102 3 52.6%
1989 113 103 4 52.3%
1990 99 114 5 46.5%
1991 105 111 6 48.6%
1992 110 107 2 50.7%
1993 118 97 7 54.9%
1994 114 96 8 54.3%
1995 121 108 6 52.8%
1996 119 113 2 51.3%
1997 121 100 13 54.8%
1998 107 118 13 47.6%
1999 126 106 11 54.3%
2000 128 111 7 53.6%
2001 118 113 14 51.1%
2002 140 107 6 56.7%
TOTAL 2309 2115 130 52.2%

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Welcome Sixth Sense,

Hope to see you around for the season

 

[Sixth Sense]

Thanks BBC. I'll be here each week. Good luck.