Question for totals players (MIN/DAL 201)

[CrazyHorse]

I am looking at the total for this game at 201 and think the under is a solid play based on this years #'s:

Overall points combined: 198 for 187 against

Home/away: 197 for 185 against

Last 5 197 for 178 against.

Minnesota plays more overs on the road, dallas plays more unders at home. Dal on no rest(but did rest starters for the last 4:00+ min. of gametime last nite), Minny on 2 days rest. Minny is hurting at the guard position, something I would think would help an under. If Dallas has a big lead (very possible) they are a good team at running the clock in the 2nd half/4th qtr (see Spock's thread about 2nd half betting).

However if you look at the last 9 meetings between these 2:

Recent Meetings
Date Home Away Line ATS
4/28/2002 Min. 102 Dal. 115 -2/204 Dal./O
4/24/2002 Dal. 122 Min. 110 -6/200 Dal./O
4/21/2002 Dal. 101 Min. 94 -7.5/204 Min./U
3/28/2002 Min. 113 Dal. 111 1.5/212.5 Min./O
2/19/2002 Dal. 100 Min. 117 -8.5/211 Min./O
12/18/2001 Min. 103 Dal. 107 -5.5/204 Dal./O
12/15/2001 Dal. 125 Min. 117 -4/201 Dal./O
4/18/2001 Dal. 120 Min. 100 -8.5/207.5 Dal./O
3/21/2001 Min. 109 Dal. 97 -3.5/198 Min./O

Neither team is that much diffrent than last yrs teams, imo. However Dallas is playing better defense this yr but their weakness inside has been exploited at times.

So my question is do you look more at this year's stats or recent meetings? I would imagine both are factored in but whenever this year's #'s point one way and history of the 2 teams matchups points another way(especially if the players involved hasnt changed too much) I always have problems figuring out which are more important. Any thoughts on this would be appreciated but I do like the under.

 

[yyz]

I look at the last 10 days worth of plays by each team. Teams go in cycles, so what happend in November really doesn't hold has much value as what happened last week. Of course, you need to know if anyone is out for the game, or was out for some of the games you are looking at.

A very quick look tells me that this game going over 200 should not be that much of a surprise.

 

[edludes]

My way of projecting scores is based on scores the past 4 games
(home and road) for the respective teams.It doesn't factor in the teams historical performances against each other,and we all know that games don't always work out they way they project on paper.It's only a usefull guideline,though more often than not, a very accurate one.In this game I show a 194 total with Minn covering in a 99-95 loss.However,considering the fact that these two teams have gone over 8 out of the last 9 games,and the Dallas game played under last night vs Hou,I'm not going to play the under here.The over was 197 last night,so this mornings number of 201 is now 7 not just 3 over my projected total,and that sounds like a bit of a gamble to me,history notwithstanding. Since my projected score indicates Minn losing by 4,(I could be off by four points and still push) thats the way I'll be inclined to play this game.GL either way

 

[CrazyHorse]

thanks for the replies guys.

yyz that is a good point about how teams play in cycles. I am more careful nowadays about checking last 5/10 but making sure to see if any of the games went to OT, strength of schedule in those 5/10 games, injuries, whether they played mostly home or away, etc.

edludes,

I like Minny to cover here also and still think it goes under. I think a game last nite that was similar to my problem here was the TOR/NO game where past history showed under but ytd and mostly last 5/10 gms pointed to an over. Obviously any game w/ TOR you have to look at injuries big time. And with Vince Carter in his 2nd game back from injury and Baron Davis back out I felt it was best to pass on anything with the total. I think the game went over the total by one point. Based on past history I am inclined to pass on this total but will give it some more thought.

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

hopefully it will go under...

 

[jerseyguy]

IN the last 7 games that these two played

IN the last 7 games that these two played

Every game went over 200.I like the over tonight