Any thoughts on market here in general till years end--I am dumbfounded by its resilience this past week with all things considered.
Question Kirk
- Thread starter DOGS THAT BARK
- Start date
DTB one can make a very good bearish case for the markets. however in the short term do not see the market dropping sharply....(famous last words..lol).
the Fed will not have to raise rate very much until the end of the year, due to the storm but mainly because of personal debt of the consumer.
long term personal debt is a concern, people are borrowing against their homes equity, many people are not putting down anything to buy furniture, cars, homes. no money down mortgages and ones that just pay the interest are not going end well.
however it will not take many rate hikes maybe a quarter or half, since these people are so far in debt to stop or slow down spending..... (that also makes a long term bearish case.)
another factor is oil/gas now if oil would hit $100 it would cause major problems including inflation. I know the economy is less dependant on oil than in the 70s however $100 oil would send inflation higher.
some people argue high oil/natural gas will actually slow down the economy and not increase inflation. it would slow the economy but also cause much higher prices.
do people realize how much diesel fuel is used in agriculture (food prices go up sharply) or that goods are mostly shipped by transport.
believe oil does not hit $100, actually falls from these levels.
would not be too bullish and believe there are far less companies to buy and the ones I do select do not offer the same value they did 10-5-3 years ago.
still at this time for the most part in equities. believe the market will be flat or up slightly until the end of the year.
govt. debt, and personal debt will have to be addressed but these problems can go on for years without blowing up, and when it does most people will not be able to pick when.....
reasons to stay bullish on the markets, employment rates are high, at least not 10% or higher unemployment. strong demand for certain jobs especially skilled tradespeople.
on the housing bubble, some markets are overheated and may collapse however the majority of markets could see a smaller correction and not destoy the economy.
note: the US population grows by roughly 845,000 people a year (legal, probably much higher).
finally saw a seminar (presentation) on Boomer Economics, this ranks up with Y2K, over hyped BS. if you followed this advice in the mid 90s you lost a fortune.
it was thougth that seniors would sell their homes and move to smaller homes and apartments, real estate would fall sharply.
remember one expert telling a investor to sell his home in Toronto.
trying buying that home now for double.
so after this long ramble believe the market will be flat to higher, however just a guess, so have stops in place.
thanks
selkirk
the Fed will not have to raise rate very much until the end of the year, due to the storm but mainly because of personal debt of the consumer.
long term personal debt is a concern, people are borrowing against their homes equity, many people are not putting down anything to buy furniture, cars, homes. no money down mortgages and ones that just pay the interest are not going end well.
however it will not take many rate hikes maybe a quarter or half, since these people are so far in debt to stop or slow down spending..... (that also makes a long term bearish case.)
another factor is oil/gas now if oil would hit $100 it would cause major problems including inflation. I know the economy is less dependant on oil than in the 70s however $100 oil would send inflation higher.
some people argue high oil/natural gas will actually slow down the economy and not increase inflation. it would slow the economy but also cause much higher prices.
do people realize how much diesel fuel is used in agriculture (food prices go up sharply) or that goods are mostly shipped by transport.
believe oil does not hit $100, actually falls from these levels.
would not be too bullish and believe there are far less companies to buy and the ones I do select do not offer the same value they did 10-5-3 years ago.
still at this time for the most part in equities. believe the market will be flat or up slightly until the end of the year.
govt. debt, and personal debt will have to be addressed but these problems can go on for years without blowing up, and when it does most people will not be able to pick when.....
reasons to stay bullish on the markets, employment rates are high, at least not 10% or higher unemployment. strong demand for certain jobs especially skilled tradespeople.
on the housing bubble, some markets are overheated and may collapse however the majority of markets could see a smaller correction and not destoy the economy.
note: the US population grows by roughly 845,000 people a year (legal, probably much higher).
finally saw a seminar (presentation) on Boomer Economics, this ranks up with Y2K, over hyped BS. if you followed this advice in the mid 90s you lost a fortune.
it was thougth that seniors would sell their homes and move to smaller homes and apartments, real estate would fall sharply.
remember one expert telling a investor to sell his home in Toronto.
trying buying that home now for double.
so after this long ramble believe the market will be flat to higher, however just a guess, so have stops in place.
thanks
selkirk
