Happy Boxing Day!! :toast:
Two crap teams. My plan was to not spend much time on this game. Just bet the dog and the under and call it a day. And that's probably where I'm going to land. But let's spend some time with New Mexico St and Bowling Green.
First, what a fun game to dig into. The first two previews I read started thusly:
"This should be an entertaining matchup between the Aggies' triple-option and the Falcons' passing game. With the Over/Under set below 50, I'm all in on the Over."
"Two of the nation's worst offenses take the spotlight Monday..."
Not sure if the writer of the first article has any idea what he's talking about. Near as I can tell, NM St doesn't even run the triple option. At least not on a regular basis.
NM St started the season 0-4, but then "finished" 5-1 after their shocking win over a Liberty team that had clearly given up on the season. Their game against San Jose St in October had been cancelled. So, needing a win to reach bowl eligibility, they scheduled a game against Valpo. Yes, FCS Valpo. Voila! 6-6 and bowl eligible! So they should be absolutely fired up for a bowl game, their first since 2017. But Bowling Green hasn't played in a bowl game since 2015, so maybe not a huge motivational edge there. Both teams should be excited to win a bowl game.
NM St is led by Jerry Kill. Remember him? Unfortunately, he is 0-5 in bowl games. BG's head coach is Scott Loeffler, whose claim to fame is being the first head coach ejected for 2 unsportsmanlike penalties. This is Loeffler's first bowl game.
The Aggies really rely on the run game. Sadly, they're still not very good at it, which shows you how bad their passing "attack" is. They average 156 yards rushing and 169 yards passing per game. Their best run threat is the qb Pavia, who averages 5.5 yards/carry. He was hurt in the Valpo (fuck, every time i try to type "valpo", it comes out as "valop." I've had to re-type it every single time.) game. I can't wait to see if he plays today. Almost everything I've read says he is. But one website says he has entered the transfer portal and is not playing today. He's not great, but his back-up is pretty bad. I'm going with the assumption that Pavia plays. But it's a hamstring injury, so that may deal another blow to their already mediocre ground game. He does average 8 yards/att, which is very good.
BG's defense is pretty bad, allowing 5.82 yards/play (91st in the country)
BG has no run game. They average 3.03 yards/carry, which is 126th in the country. NM St allows 3.94 yards/carry, which is 56th in the country. So the question is, can NM St slow down the BG passing game? BG averages 237 yards/game, which is 59th in the country. However, they only average 6.88 yards/att, which is 91st. New Mexico St only allows 6.3 yards/att, which is 17th in the country.
As weak as the MAC was this year, NM St played an even weaker schedule than BG.
So, after all that, I'm kinda right back to where I started. We have 2 teams that could lose to anybody. So I have have to take the dog. And the total... it's just hard to believe either team will have any sustained offensive success.
NM St (+3.5) 4 units
NM St (ML) 1 to win 1.4
BG TT under (26.5) 4 units
NM St TT under (22.5) 4 units
Bowl Record
Sides: 7-7 +5.0
ML: 4-3 +10.4
Totals: 13-7 +13.8
Two crap teams. My plan was to not spend much time on this game. Just bet the dog and the under and call it a day. And that's probably where I'm going to land. But let's spend some time with New Mexico St and Bowling Green.
First, what a fun game to dig into. The first two previews I read started thusly:
"This should be an entertaining matchup between the Aggies' triple-option and the Falcons' passing game. With the Over/Under set below 50, I'm all in on the Over."
"Two of the nation's worst offenses take the spotlight Monday..."
Not sure if the writer of the first article has any idea what he's talking about. Near as I can tell, NM St doesn't even run the triple option. At least not on a regular basis.
NM St started the season 0-4, but then "finished" 5-1 after their shocking win over a Liberty team that had clearly given up on the season. Their game against San Jose St in October had been cancelled. So, needing a win to reach bowl eligibility, they scheduled a game against Valpo. Yes, FCS Valpo. Voila! 6-6 and bowl eligible! So they should be absolutely fired up for a bowl game, their first since 2017. But Bowling Green hasn't played in a bowl game since 2015, so maybe not a huge motivational edge there. Both teams should be excited to win a bowl game.
NM St is led by Jerry Kill. Remember him? Unfortunately, he is 0-5 in bowl games. BG's head coach is Scott Loeffler, whose claim to fame is being the first head coach ejected for 2 unsportsmanlike penalties. This is Loeffler's first bowl game.
The Aggies really rely on the run game. Sadly, they're still not very good at it, which shows you how bad their passing "attack" is. They average 156 yards rushing and 169 yards passing per game. Their best run threat is the qb Pavia, who averages 5.5 yards/carry. He was hurt in the Valpo (fuck, every time i try to type "valpo", it comes out as "valop." I've had to re-type it every single time.) game. I can't wait to see if he plays today. Almost everything I've read says he is. But one website says he has entered the transfer portal and is not playing today. He's not great, but his back-up is pretty bad. I'm going with the assumption that Pavia plays. But it's a hamstring injury, so that may deal another blow to their already mediocre ground game. He does average 8 yards/att, which is very good.
BG's defense is pretty bad, allowing 5.82 yards/play (91st in the country)
BG has no run game. They average 3.03 yards/carry, which is 126th in the country. NM St allows 3.94 yards/carry, which is 56th in the country. So the question is, can NM St slow down the BG passing game? BG averages 237 yards/game, which is 59th in the country. However, they only average 6.88 yards/att, which is 91st. New Mexico St only allows 6.3 yards/att, which is 17th in the country.
As weak as the MAC was this year, NM St played an even weaker schedule than BG.
So, after all that, I'm kinda right back to where I started. We have 2 teams that could lose to anybody. So I have have to take the dog. And the total... it's just hard to believe either team will have any sustained offensive success.
NM St (+3.5) 4 units
NM St (ML) 1 to win 1.4
BG TT under (26.5) 4 units
NM St TT under (22.5) 4 units
Bowl Record
Sides: 7-7 +5.0
ML: 4-3 +10.4
Totals: 13-7 +13.8
