COMMENTARY | NFL "experts" appear to be picking the San Francisco 49ers over the Green Bay Packers by about the same margin they'd likely back Mike Tyson in the ring against, say, George W. Bush.
It's butt-kicking time, and Green Bay is set to be on the receiving end -- according to most projections of Sunday's game in northern Wisconsin.
All six of the experts at SBNation.com are going with the Niners, and it's the only game of the four in the wild-card round this weekend in which they voted unanimously on the outcome. It's times like these, when a competition looks all but decided in favor of one specific result, that create the perfect conditions for a jaw-dropping upset.
The Packers have certainly been in this position before and answered the bell. They were far from favored when they traveled to Atlanta in the 2010 playoffs and subsequently routed the shell-shocked Falcons.
Despite the reportedly lackluster ticket sales for the game, Lambeau Field in the middle of winter is about the last place any team wants to travel to.
The fact that the game hasn't sold out with only a few days until kickoff also suggests the team's fans aren't yet believers. Given the shock value of that variable alone, the potential for an upset seems even more intriguing.
The 49ers aren't exactly rolling toward Green Bay behind a tidal wave of momentum. Despite winning their last two games, the Niners surrendered a couple of their worst defensive performances of the year in those contests.
The secondary of the 49ers looks particularly vulnerable. In their last game against the Arizona Cardinals, they gave up 399 yards through the air. In the game before, that they surrendered 341 such yards against the Atlanta Falcons. Those are by no means dominating performances.
Intriguingly, the problems in the 49ers' secondary also happen to coincide with the return of Aaron Rodgers to the Green Bay backfield. Rodgers has thus far in his career built the highest passer efficiency rating in the history of the NFL.
Additionally, the Packers are armed with a significant upgrade since they last played the 49ers. The Green and Gold now feature a legitimate threat at running back in the form of Eddie Lacy. Lacy seems to relish grinding out yards after contact, which could make fatigue a factor for the Niners' defense, and one that wasn't present in past games between the two.
In their last three games against the Niners, the Packers lost on each and every occasion. The Niners usually produce a high-ranked defense under head coach Jim Harbaugh, but that hasn't stopped the Packers from putting up yards and points. Eddie Lacy may actually represent the slim margin of difference the Packers need to overcome San Francisco in terms of offensive production.
The big question mark for the Packers on Sunday is their own defense. Make no mistake, if the Packers flop on that side of the ball come Sunday, it could very well cost defensive coordinator Dom Capers his job.
Prior to losing Aaron Rodgers to injury earlier this season, the Packers' defense was playing exceptionally well against the run. The now-injured Johnny Jolly was a big reason for that dimension of the unit's inspired play. Even with Jolly on the sidelines, young players like Josh Boyd and Datone Jones may have absorbed just enough of his experience and attitude to fill the void this Sunday.
Additionally, the secondary in Green Bay arguably played much better football in the latter parts of the regular season. Sam Shields and Tramon Williams recently came up with critical interceptions to two must-win games against the Dallas Cowboys and the Chicago Bears.
Alongside their playing and coaching talent, the Packers will also enter the game against the 49ers with some recent statistics from the wild-card round on their side. Over the course of the last two years, the home team has gone 7-1 in the first round of the postseason. It probably won't hurt the team that conditions for the game are expected to be frigid.
The NFL, known by its "any given Sunday" anthem, is a league in which the team that wants it more typically wins. This Sunday, the Green Bay Packers could very easily put an exclamation point on that mantra with an upset of San Francisco.
In fact, I expect they will.
It's butt-kicking time, and Green Bay is set to be on the receiving end -- according to most projections of Sunday's game in northern Wisconsin.
All six of the experts at SBNation.com are going with the Niners, and it's the only game of the four in the wild-card round this weekend in which they voted unanimously on the outcome. It's times like these, when a competition looks all but decided in favor of one specific result, that create the perfect conditions for a jaw-dropping upset.
The Packers have certainly been in this position before and answered the bell. They were far from favored when they traveled to Atlanta in the 2010 playoffs and subsequently routed the shell-shocked Falcons.
Despite the reportedly lackluster ticket sales for the game, Lambeau Field in the middle of winter is about the last place any team wants to travel to.
The fact that the game hasn't sold out with only a few days until kickoff also suggests the team's fans aren't yet believers. Given the shock value of that variable alone, the potential for an upset seems even more intriguing.
The 49ers aren't exactly rolling toward Green Bay behind a tidal wave of momentum. Despite winning their last two games, the Niners surrendered a couple of their worst defensive performances of the year in those contests.
The secondary of the 49ers looks particularly vulnerable. In their last game against the Arizona Cardinals, they gave up 399 yards through the air. In the game before, that they surrendered 341 such yards against the Atlanta Falcons. Those are by no means dominating performances.
Intriguingly, the problems in the 49ers' secondary also happen to coincide with the return of Aaron Rodgers to the Green Bay backfield. Rodgers has thus far in his career built the highest passer efficiency rating in the history of the NFL.
Additionally, the Packers are armed with a significant upgrade since they last played the 49ers. The Green and Gold now feature a legitimate threat at running back in the form of Eddie Lacy. Lacy seems to relish grinding out yards after contact, which could make fatigue a factor for the Niners' defense, and one that wasn't present in past games between the two.
In their last three games against the Niners, the Packers lost on each and every occasion. The Niners usually produce a high-ranked defense under head coach Jim Harbaugh, but that hasn't stopped the Packers from putting up yards and points. Eddie Lacy may actually represent the slim margin of difference the Packers need to overcome San Francisco in terms of offensive production.
The big question mark for the Packers on Sunday is their own defense. Make no mistake, if the Packers flop on that side of the ball come Sunday, it could very well cost defensive coordinator Dom Capers his job.
Prior to losing Aaron Rodgers to injury earlier this season, the Packers' defense was playing exceptionally well against the run. The now-injured Johnny Jolly was a big reason for that dimension of the unit's inspired play. Even with Jolly on the sidelines, young players like Josh Boyd and Datone Jones may have absorbed just enough of his experience and attitude to fill the void this Sunday.
Additionally, the secondary in Green Bay arguably played much better football in the latter parts of the regular season. Sam Shields and Tramon Williams recently came up with critical interceptions to two must-win games against the Dallas Cowboys and the Chicago Bears.
Alongside their playing and coaching talent, the Packers will also enter the game against the 49ers with some recent statistics from the wild-card round on their side. Over the course of the last two years, the home team has gone 7-1 in the first round of the postseason. It probably won't hurt the team that conditions for the game are expected to be frigid.
The NFL, known by its "any given Sunday" anthem, is a league in which the team that wants it more typically wins. This Sunday, the Green Bay Packers could very easily put an exclamation point on that mantra with an upset of San Francisco.
In fact, I expect they will.
