BEGINNING, THURSDAY, MAY 17
San Diego at Pittsburgh (4) 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th
The Pirates very been one of the top run producing teams in the National
League this year (.261 BA, 5.0 per game), and they?ve been
racking up steady profits here at PNC Park (+$385). They?ve won 6
of their last 9 (+$290) and their mostly right-handed rotation should
fare well against the light-hitting Padres. San Diego is only 9-19
vs. right-handers in 2018 (-$520), averaging a mere 3.6 runs per
game in those contests. They also lack the quality pitching needed
to knock off the hard hitting home team and will be fortunate to salvage
a win in this series. BEST BET: Right-handers vs. the Padres.
Philadelphia at St. Louis (4) 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th
The Phillies have been very competitive lately, winning 7 of their
last 10 (+$390) and they have a couple of terrific right-handers set
to take the mound at Busch Stadium this weekend. Jake Arrieta
has been sensational in his starts for the visitor (2.59 ERA) and
Aaron Nola has emerged as the ace of the rotation (1.99 ERA in
nine outings). The Cardinals are averaging just 4.0 runs per game
vs. righties and to make matters worse, they?ll be without pitching
ace Carlos Martinez, who has landed on the DL. We expect the
Phillies to be reasonably priced throughout, so we?ll look for them
to keep pace in the competitive NL East. BEST BET: Arrieta/Nola.
Colorado at San Francisco (4) 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th
The Giants have hovered around a respectable .500, but they suffered
a big blow with Johnny Cueto landing on the 60 day DL and
unlikely to return before the All-Star break. Their other starters
have been floundering (5.66 ERA last 10 days) and they?ll be squaring
off against a Colorado team that has a 15-8 record outside of
Coors Field (+$1245). Chad Bettis has been a standout for Colorado
(3.12 ERA in eight appearances) and we?ll back him in the
opener. We?ll consider using the Rockies in other spots depending
on specific matchups. BEST BET: Bettis.
Oakland at Toronto (4) 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th
The Blue Jays have not looked sharp in recent days (-$335 in their
last 10, averaging 3.8 runs per game with a 7.21 ERA among starters)
and they could be vulnerable in some spots this weekend at
Rogers Centre. Sean Manaea has been one of the top pitchers in
the American League so far (2.11 ERA in eight starts) and he will
be taking a turn in this series. In addition, the A?s check in with a
profitable record vs. left-handers in road games (+$500, 5.7 runs
per game), so we?ll take a shot against Jaime Garcia, who has a
bloated 5.92 ERA in his seven outings for the home team. BEST
BET: Manaea/Athletics vs. J. Garcia.
Texas at Chicago W. Sox (4) 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th
It is shaping up to be a disastrous 2018 season for the White Sox,
a team that is now only 3-15 in games played here at Guaranteed
Rate Field (-$1245). The Rangers are also likely to wind up in their
division basement, but they are still way better than Chicago, and
they?ve actually been profitable against right-handers outside of
Arlington (+$910). Cole Hamels hasn?t been picking up many wins,
but his numbers are strong (3.48 overall ERA, 1.50 last two starts)
and veteran Doug Fister has a 2.70 ERA in three road outings. Both
are expected to take turns this weekend. BEST BET: Hamels/Fister.
Tampa Bay at L.A. Angels (4) 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th
The Rays have fallen well below .500 after a decent stretch in late
April (only 3-7, -$450 last 10 days) and they?ll be at a big disadvantage
this weekend at Anaheim. The Angels are one of the AL?s top
teams at the moment (+$680 overall), checking in with a 3.88 team
ERA (4th best in the league) while averaging just over 5.0 runs per
game at the plate. They have a trio of hot pitchers in Tyler Skaggs
(3.07 ERA), Nick Tropeano (3.64) and Shohei Ohtani (3.58) set to
start against the fading Rays. Tampa will be fortunate to avoid a
sweep. BEST BET: Skaggs/Tropeano/Ohtani.
Detroit at Seattle (4) 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th
The Tigers might make a tempting underdog at Safeco Field, but the
Mariners have been a consistent money-maker (+$545) and Detroit
is only 7-13 (-$300) outside of Comerica. Seattle has some solid
starters, but the overall pitching numbers are poor (4.68 team ERA,
5th worst in the American League) and we?re not all that anxious to
take them as heavy favorites, even though we suspect they have a
significant advantage, We?ll take a closer look as game day draws
near. BEST BET: None.
Baltimore at Boston (4) 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th
The Orioles were swept by the Bosox in an earlier trip to Fenway
Park (-$300) and they come into this series with a pitiful 3-16 road
record (-$1080). They have a terrible all-righty rotation (5.08 team
ERA) and they?ll be taking on a Boston team that is 23-8 vs. righties
already (+$1055, 5.8 runs per game). The Red Sox will send a
very hot Rick Porcello to the mound (2.79 ERA in eight starts) as
well as Eduardo Rodriguez, who has led Boston to victories in each
of his seven starts so far (+$715). Easy call on the home team in
these contests. BEST BET: Porcello/E. Rodriguez.
BEGINNING, FRIDAY, MAY 18
L.A. Dodgers at Washington (3) 18th, 19th, 20th
After winning 104 games in 2017 the Dodgers were expected
to cruise to another NL West title, but it sure hasn?t worked out
that way. LA has already racked up astonishing losses this season
(-$2540 so far), a four game sweep by the hapless Reds at Chavez
Ravine the most recent indignity. The Nationals are closing in on
the top slot in the NL East (9-2, +$660 last 10 days, 1.62 ERA
among starters) and they are now 20-9 (+$715) vs. right-handed
pitching. Avoid LA?s lefties (Nats -$760 vs. southpaws, averaging
just 3.3 runs per game), but the rest of the visitor?s rotation is fair
fame. BEST BET: Nationals vs. right-handers.
Arizona at N.Y. Mets (3) 18th, 19th, 20th
The beleaguered Mets continue their downward spiral (2-8, -$730
last 10 days, averaging just 2.7 runs per game on offense with a
5.65 ERA among starters) and now must contend with a formidable
visitor. Arizona had a rough weekend at Chase Field vs. the Nationals,
but they have an outstanding road record (11-6, +$715)
and their pitching is tops in the league (3.16). Patrick Corbin has
emerged as one of the NL?s top lefties (2.12 ERA in eight starts) and
Zack Greinke has been flashing excellent form (1.42 ERA last two
starts). Both are expected to take the mound at CitiField and we?ll
be on board when they go. BEST BET: Corbin/Greinke.
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (3) 18th, 19th, 20th
The Reds have to feel good about that sweep over the Dodgers in
LA, but it?s hard to work up much enthusiasm for a team that is
only 6-15 when playing at home (-$905). They own the 2nd worst
ERA in the National League and they average almost one run less
per game than Chicago at the plate. The Cubs have a 3.41 team
ERA, 4th best in the NL, but Tyler Chatwood and Jon Lester are not
expect to see action. Kyle Hendricks has decent numbers, but he?s
not been picking up victories (-$655 in eight appearances), so we?ll
steer clear of this one for the time being. BEST BET: None.
Miami at Atlanta (3) 18th, 19th, 20th
The Braves are atop the NL East for the moment (+$1190 overall)
and they have already taken 3 out of 4 from the Marlins in head to
head competition (+$165). They own the top offense in the league
(.269 team BA, 5.4 runs per game) and the pitching has been very
effective as well (3.53 team ERA). Miami will benefit from some
inflated price, but they are still at the huge disadvantage here at
SunTrust Park. They have the worst ERA in the league (5.12) and
they?ve scored the fewest runs as well (3.4 per game), so a sweep is
not unlikely. BEST BET: Braves in all games.
Cleveland at Houston (3) 18th, 19th, 20th
The defending champs will tend to be overpriced, especially when
playing here at Minute Maid Park, but The Astros? pitching has
been so dominant (2.49 ERA, a full run lower than the 2nd best
Red Sox) that they?ll be a very tempting choice against the Tribe.
Houston is 18-10 vs. right-handers so far, and they are averaging
almost 5.0 runs per game on offense. The Indians have dropped a
bundle vs. right-handed starters in 2018 (-$930) and they?ll face an
imposing duo in Charlie Morton (2.03 ERA) and Lance McCullers
(3.72), both of whom are slated to take the mound this weekend.
BEST BET: Morton/McCullers.
N.Y. Yankees at Kansas City (3) 18th, 19th, 20th
The Yankees continue their dominant stretch (8-2, +$540 last 10
days), outscoring the rest of MLB (5.8 runs per game) with the
3rd best ERA in the American League (3.66). The Royals have the
worst pitching staff in the majors (5.55 ERA) and they come into
this weekend with a 6-20 (-$1325) record against right-handers.
The Yankees may be an expensive proposition at Kaufman Stadium,
so caution is advised. But Luis Severino has been consistently spectacular
(+$700, 2.14 ERA) so we?ll lay the fat price on the road
favorite when he is on the hill. BEST BET: Severino.
Milwaukee at Minnesota (3) 18th, 19th, 20th
The Brewers are clinging to a slim lead in the NL Central, and
their numbers outside of Miller Park are encouraging, particularly
against right-handers (11-5, +$770). The Twins have picked up the
pace nicely following a terrible stretch in April (7-3, +$540 last 10
days) but their pitching is still sub-par (4.59 ERA) and Milwaukee
has turned a nice profit in inter-league games over the past two
seasons (+$735). Minnesota is only 13-16 vs. right-handers in 2018
(-$370) so we?ll take a shot with the visitor at what should be reasonable
road prices. BEST BET: Brewers when righty meets righty
