RBC Canadian Open preview

[Lumi]

RBC Canadian Open preview


Following the extremely suspenseful Open Championship at Turnberry, the PGA Tour crosses another border this week at is heads to Glen Abbey Golf Club in Oakville, Ontario for the RBC Canadian Open. This will be the 25th time this track has hosted this event but just the 3rd time since the redesign took place in 2001.

The field is relatively weak as we are coming off a Major Tournament but there are some big names teeing it up this week. Six players ranked in the top 30 in the Official World Golf Rankings are playing led by Camilo Villegas who is currently holding down the 13th spot. Also in the mix is Sean O?Hair (15th), Anthony Kim (17th), Retief Goosen (21st), Luke Donald (25th) and Mike Weir (27th).



Weir and Goosen are the favorites, both listed at +1500, but we will be staying away from both as there is really no value for either player. Both have won in Canada before but this tournament qualifies as a real sleeper tournament ands that is proven by last year?s winner Chez Reavie, who is +10,000 this week. We will be digging deep for some sizable underdogs that are playing in top form right now.

Mark Calcavecchia (+10,000) has won here before and he has been in the running on several other occasions as he has had two runner up finishes as well as two other top tens. He finished in a tie for 14th last year and he is definitely playing well following his stellar performance at the Open Championship last weekend.

John Mallinger (+4000) was oh-so-close last week as he lost in a playoff to Bo Van Pelt in the U.S. Bank Championship in Milwaukee. That would have been his first PGA Tour win and while disappointing, he can feed off that. He has four top tens over his last 10 events and that includes a T3 at the Players. He can break through in this field.

Bryce Molder (+5000) is certainly no household name but he has been playing exceptional well. He was in the thick of the Open Championship last week before shooting 77 on Sunday and has two top five finishes over his last five events including a runner-up finish at the St. Jude last month. He is not lacking confidence right now.

Recommended plays for the RBC Canadian open

Last week, Tiger Woods was a big disappointment as was Ian Poulter, both of which failed to make the cut at the Open Championship. Sergio Garcia gave us some hope heading into the weekend before he put up a miserable 76 on moving day.

Mark Calcavecchia (+10000) 1.5 Units
John Mallinger (+4000) 1.5 Units
Bryce Molder (+5000) 1.5 Units

AT&T National

Hunter Mahan (+1500) 2 Units L
Tiger Woods (+175) 2 Units W
K.J. Choi (+5000) ? Unit L

John Deere Classic

Steve Stricker (+1000) 2 Units W
Zach Johnson (+1500) 2 Units L
Kevin Sutherland (+4000) 1 Unit L

Open Championship

Sergio Garcia (+2000) 2 UnitsL
Ian Poulter (+2500) 2 UnitsL
Tiger Woods (+165) 2 UnitsL

 

[Lumi]

Handicapping the Canadian Open

Handicapping the Canadian Open

Handicapping the Canadian Open

Brian Gold takes a look ahead to the Canadian Open and explains his top golf betting selections for victory.

As usual most of the big names have stayed away from the Canadian Open. While the PGA tour had hoped the FedEx Cup would convince more players to sign up for tournaments like the Canadian Open and the Buick Championship, the truth is that the Cup has had little effect.

In the past, players like Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and Vijay Singh have played at the Canadian Open but never has there been a full star studded field for the event. This year the headliners in the field are Retief Goosen, Camillo Villegas and Anthony Kim along with local favourites Mike Weir and Stephen Ames.

After a brief absence from Glen Abbey, the tournament returned to Oakville last year and will once again play at Glen Abbey this year. The Jack Nicklaus designed course was supposed to provide a major challenge to players but in the absence of wind and length the course has proven to be quite simple.

Tiger Woods holds the record at 22 under for 4 days while Chez Reavie won last year at 17 under. In fact in benign conditions all winning scores have been well into the double digits under par. The course should play long at over 7,200 yards but the truth is that there is little advantage to the long hitters with the exception of 2 or 3 holes like the par 5 18th. For that reason, accuracy and putting are far more important than distance.

Furthermore the course does not play well for left handers which likely explains why Mike Weir and Phil Mickelson have not been successful. With that in mind, here are the main contenders for the win as well as some longshot chances.

Anthony Kim [+2000]. Although Kim got off to a poor start this year, his game seems to be coming around. He was in contention for 2 straight weeks prior to the British Open and he is second on the tour in putting. More importantly Kim showed last year he can handle the course. He made spectacular shots and looked like a sure winner heading into the final day before he exploded to a 75 on day 4. If Kim's accuracy returns and he can put together 4 solid rounds he is the player to beat.

Scott Verplank [+3900]. Verplank loves Canada. He finished 10th at Glen Abbey in 2000, a tournament he contended throughout and then won in 2001 in Montreal. More importantly Verplank is in form, having consecutive high finishes and he has the style that wins this championship. He is not a particularly long hitter but as was noted earlier the course plays far less than its yardage suggests. Verplank is among the best in driving accuracy and is a great putter which is essential at Glen Abbey.

Steve Marino [+4100]. Marino is playing the best golf of his life currently and has piled up the birdies. He isn't the longest hitter but he is accurate which will set up well for the course. He seems to really enjoy the undulating greens which he'll get at Glen Abbey and he should have short irons into most greens. This could be Marino's best chance of the year.

Pat Perez [+8400]. Perez isn't a very long hitter but he loves courses like Glen Abbey. His dominance at the Bob Hope Classic and great finishes in tournaments like the John Deere Classic set him up well for Glen Abbey. Perez is a shotmaker and a great putter. In this tournament those are the key elements to winning, more so than driving distance.

JB Holmes [+8900]. Holmes has struggled this year and while length isn't a premium on the course, it doesn't hurt. Holmes will be able to go for the par 5s in 2 which will put him ahead of many and most importantly he has shown signs of breaking through. The course where he was second this year (Shell Houston Open) isn't drastically different from Glen Abbey. At the odds, he's certainly worth a shot.

Johnson Wagner [+19900]. Strictly a longshot chance, Wagner has displayed signs of brilliance along with signs of incompetence this year. Still, he is better than the tour average in all key stats and particularly in driving accuracy, greens in regulation and putting (the 3 crucial stats for this tournament). This is more of a hunch play but I believe Wagner's game will fit perfectly with Glen Abbey.

Players to avoid:

Mike Weir [+2000]. Weir almost won at Glen Abbey in 2004 when he squandered a big lead to Vijay Singh but other than that he has never made the cut. In fact Weir always struggles in the Canadian Open. Whether it's pressure to do well in front of home fans or the fact the course doesn't set up well for left handers Weir simply doesn't fare well at the course. As one of the favorites he is a great lay bet.

Camillo Villegas [+2000]. Villegas has struggled most of the year and hasn't done well in this tournament. Villegas' strength is driving and scrambling, two components which won't be of importance at Glen Abbey. It wouldn't be shocking to see Villegas miss the cut.