REAL Seaon Wk. 1.

MrChristo

The Zapper
Forum Member
Nov 11, 2001
4,414
5
0
Sexlexia...
NFLX: 16-4-1 (+10.67)
NFL: 0-0


Already played 4 games for opening week.

Always a bit dangerous, I know, but the lines have already moved, and I reckon they will continue to move, so I'll jump now.

Tenn @ Miami UNDER 38

Getting on this one now. Total has already (rightly so!) dropped from 39.5. Not sure why it is this high. Miami have little offense, and both teams play very tough defense. Like the 38 here, hard to see anything other than a low scoring game.

Tampa @ Washington UNDER 39.5

Another high total. Washington will be much more conservative under Gibbs...more running the ball, and more emphasis on a tough defense. Tampa always have a strong D, and are allowing only 10ppg in the 3 pre-season games so far. Like this under at any number above 38.

NYG @ Philli OVER 41.5

Lots of points in this one. Both defenses are really hurting, with key players missing. The addition of Owens gives Philli a big play option, and will also take the pressure off their other receivers and running game. Warner to start for NYG has been looking good, and should be able to take advantage of Philli's weakened D.

KC @ Denver UNDER 48

The total is this high based on K.C's ability to score, and their very shaky defense. However, looking closer their D has improved markedly. The starting unit has actually given up only 7 points in 3 games this pre-season!! Plummer is a very over-rated QB for Denver, and they will be relying on a good running game, which will eat away a lot of time. Denver D always strong at home, so I'll be surprised if they reach the 48 total.
Also KC receiving corp is hurting...Guessing we'll see a BIG chunk of Holmes.

Good Luck Gang (not long to go now ;)) :cool:
 
Last edited:

investa

Registered User
Forum Member
Aug 31, 2004
11
0
0
hey mrchristo, i see ur from good ol tassie, i myself am from adelaide...seeing as the afl season is almost over im looking for other sports to keep me occupied til next footy season...do u follow the NFL much, have u had much success before..also wat sports book are u with, at the moment im with centrebet...

neway good luck, and go the lions!!!
 

MrChristo

The Zapper
Forum Member
Nov 11, 2001
4,414
5
0
Sexlexia...
Indi @ New England UNDER 45.5 (canbet)

This total opened at 41.5, and it seems there has been a huge over-reaction! Manning always has trouble against the tough and deceptive NE defense...Indi have scored only 14, 13 and 16 in their last 3 trips to NE.
NE only had 2 games last season that scored higher than this at home.
Neither team has looked great offensively in pre-season. This total does appear too high.
Also a high chance of some rain which should slow the game down a bit.


Hey investa. Love the NFL mate, been following it closely for the last 4-5 years...but always had an interest before I started betting on it.
Coming off a pretty good pre-season, so hopefully that can continue into a profitable season proper!

Books? I like Canbet because of their better prices, plus you get very early lines...where-as Centrebet don't usually release their's until late in the week (and they didn't do total's in pre-season!!).
Not sure how much you want to spread your $$ about, but feel free to drop me a mail and I'll let you know about a couple of European books that occasionally get things a little wrong! ;)
 

PAWAQATSI

Kangaroos
Forum Member
Dec 8, 2001
1,874
3
0
the land of confusion
A great preseason Christo. I've rode along for most of it.

Here's hoping you have a great season proper. I'll be tagging along. :thumb:

Good tipping to ya!!
 

MrChristo

The Zapper
Forum Member
Nov 11, 2001
4,414
5
0
Sexlexia...
Detroit @ Chicago under 39.5

Again, this seems a strange total to me. (You watch me get suckered into playing all these unders only to see the refs come out and call 1000 interference calls to blow them all! )

Detroit simply don't score enough points on the road.
In 2 pre-season games they scored 10 @ Cleveland and 6 @ Baltimore.
In 10 road games last season the highest score they managed was 17. (10 games @ 14ppg)
Chicago have struggled to score this season aswell. They scored 56 points in 4 pre-season games...all 4 going under. They only topped 24 points twice last season, av a little over 16ppg.
Now after trading Booker to Miami for Ogunleye, they will be even more conservative and defensive minded.

Last season's meeting in Chicago went 24-16, but BOTH teams returned kick-offs for TD's!...The last 4 meetings before that have totalled 37, 23, 35 and 38.

Again, like getting anything more than 38 here. Like the under.

Thanks guys :toast: ...Hope everything goes according to plan! :cool:
 

MrChristo

The Zapper
Forum Member
Nov 11, 2001
4,414
5
0
Sexlexia...
Jax @ Buffalo UNDER 41/St. Louis -4 (1.91 as a 6.5 point teaser)

Not much to say here. Jacksonville and Buffalo both have great defenses. Like the UNDER teased up to over the key 38 total.
St. Louis will be far too strong for a terrible Arizona, but 10.5 points is a lot to cover. Can't see them having too much trouble winning by more than 4 tho.
 

JohnHiRoller

Registered User
Forum Member
Aug 12, 2003
52
0
0
Chicago
MrC, like the defenses of both Jax and Buff. Was reading last night web site of Jaxville, and Del Rio will be playing it close to the chest, similiar to Raven ball. Let the defense play tough, play for field position, no offensive turnovers, and wait for the break. Also note Leftwich (sp) has not scored a TD all pre season.

John.
 

KillerInstinct

Registered User
Forum Member
Jun 17, 2004
23
0
0
Las Vegas, NV
Mr Christo, just curious what type of NFL coverage you get in Australia...you get 4-5 games a week on normal tv as we do in the US? or do you pick the games up on a satellite dish?
 

MrChristo

The Zapper
Forum Member
Nov 11, 2001
4,414
5
0
Sexlexia...
All on Satellite KI...No games on FTA tv.

We get [only] 2 games a week live on ESPN each week (usually the Sunday and monday night games obviously)....But this week we get the Thurday and Monday games live and a replay of the Sunday night game.

Usually a double header on Fox for the Sunday games...This week we have Wash/TB and Minny/Dallas....starting at an ever-enjoyable 3am Monday morning!!

So, yeah, while we don't get to pick and choose, we do get a reasonable amount to see. (Although sometimes we only get 1 Fox game...occasionally none....not sure if it's something to do with a licence agreement, or our Fox just picks and chooses).

Goes without saying that my Monday's over the next 5-6 months are a dead-loss! :D
 

MrChristo

The Zapper
Forum Member
Nov 11, 2001
4,414
5
0
Sexlexia...
Last play for the week (Got WAY too many already!)

Minni -4 (-120)

Simply haven't been too impressed with Dallas over the pre-season.
Culpepper has looked superb!...Dallas secondary thin (at best!!), should see a lot of down field passing from Minni.
Bennett out, but Williams carried the RB duties well in Gm. 1 last season, rushing for 22-80.
Dallas 1-5 ats as road dogs of 3-7 in last 3 seasons. 5-18 since '92!!
Really like the look of the Vikes this year.

EDIT: It seems that Smith is able to play for the Vikes anyway, so definately no problems for the running game.

Good Luck all :cool:
 
Last edited:

Hokie Fan

Registered User
Forum Member
Aug 24, 2003
1,357
2
0
Mr. Cristo

How is North Doing in the AFL???
Grew up in Tullamarine.. went to Essendon Grammer...

Big Malcolm Blight guy as a kid..

Cant find any info on the Kangas...
 

PAWAQATSI

Kangaroos
Forum Member
Dec 8, 2001
1,874
3
0
the land of confusion
Mate.....your not looking hard enough!!

AFL.com.au then click on the North emblem.

A Roos man meself!! :clap:

We just missed the 8 this season and battled it out as a 'middle of the road' team in '04.

Blighty was my favourite as a kid too.


We run an AFL thread in "Off the Wall" section. Go have a squizz!
 

kickserv

Wrong Forum Mod
Forum Member
May 26, 2002
92,855
1,969
113
50
Canada
wow..tons of NFL action...the way kick likes it!!! Good luck with the Under in the first game of the year...looks like ya got a great number! Best of luck this season!
 

bombercoops

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 17, 2003
1,845
4
0
43
oz
Thought you may have poked your head in with a message pawa, after the roos question was posed.
Christo, good job so far mate and I wish you all the best for the regular season. Will be coming along for the ride.
 

LonghornMM

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 30, 2003
4,513
193
63
Deer Park, TX
Just wanted to bump this one back to the top. MrChristo did it again. Great weekend!

What is your opinion on tonite's MNF game?
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top