real-time 'capping babble

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Yesterday's mess: 4-7 (counts double-up loser on Chi total as 1 oops)
-3.75 (here, counts it as big mess)
postage: 37-29, +15.9

Note: Jerry Manuel is overpaid. Hindsight is, of course, but isn't it unusual that Billy Koch only has 6 saves? Nevermind that, but once Bonds cranks it, Colon's night must end. Onward...
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Gonna try this...should save me time and (maybe) money.
Info is not for recreational purposes only...
Warning: do not operate heavy machinery while reading this
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Millwood:
-good #s vs Reds in career
-HOWEVER, Casey, Kearns, and Dunn(2) have all homered vs, and each is batting over .300 vs (Griffey just 1/8)
-only allowed 6 HR in 88.2, 1 in his past 7 starts (49 IP)
-picked up the W (8-5) @cinci April 12 (3rd start), threw 6 strong but allowed 2 HR's (Kearns and Dunn)
-4 days rest, threw 114 (7IP) in home win over A's
All other things aside, I like Millwood here. Long-ball is very likely, vs cinci, and 2-4 cinci runs, at home for them, is no stretch...a Phils play means that they must produce.
7-8 innings likely; BP is solid, but I hate Mesa as a closer.

Haynes:
-4 days rest (109p in 5.2, loss to Jays), and 6 about his limit right now. BP about avg.
-tough to gauge right now, as he's faced some toughies (jays,yanks,braves last 3) and has actually been lowering his era over that time -- WAS 12.74, so to lower is not tough, but he has kept his team in vs.
-8 h, 4bb, 4 er vs Phils April 12th (L, 5-8) - #s pretty good vs Phils in career, min. work; # of current have hit, incl. Thome 6/12 w/HR
-ended 6 week DL stint near end of May
If Phils can get some runs off him early, and not let him settle in too comfortably, then the game should be theirs (Phil). Just 1-3 thru 5 or 6 and Reds may find a way to upset stud Millwood.

-Reds hitting righties better lately, lefties a little better on year and at home.POPS 765

-Phils more trouble w/righties lately, not hitting anyone hard anywhere.POPS 737

Note: Philly probably cooled off and waiting for Reds, in cinci, as they had day off while reds were playing low-scoring affair in Tampa Bay.

Monster pitching edge, Phil, by my fumblings, graded 88-70
I'm looking at about a Philly 62-38.
Even -140, which I can't quite get, makes this one touch-and-go.
I like Philly, obviously by my 62% on the road, but I'm holding off unless the line moves or I see something I missed -- the latter is dangerous; look long enough and one will always find something they missed...ignorance may not always be bliss, but it can often save one money.

Total at 9.5 looks high, in this matchup. I have little faith in Haynes, but the numbers suggest that maybe some is warranted. Millwood will likely not be pummelled - Reds managed only 6 hits, 2 runs, vs Gonzalez & comp yesterday, and scored 11 in the first 2 in series, against Standridge and Brazelton(both R), not exactly a couple of Cy candidates.
I can get 9 or 9.5...same juice. Small try here, probably, but I have to see what else is happenin', and I don't like this enough that I gotta have it before it moves.

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I've got nothing to say, but it's okay
(The Beatles-Good Morning)

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

What(ever) I'm doing here might be more helpful to some if I just "stick to the facts" (#s, #s, #s), but I believe that facts are useless without interpretation, so the inclusion of opinions is the only way that this has value, for me anyway...

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Simontacchi:
-last work was 1 IP relief of Morris thrashing by O's (17pitches - still 4 days rest coming in here)
-beaten up by Jays last start, this following his best start of the year, a CG victory vs Astros (3-1; 6h,1er,0bb,5k - run was a Berkman shot)
-BB/k unimpressive (23-31), hits up, HR's up...era dropped under 6 only very temporarily in mid-May (now 6.56)
-#s worse on road, all-round, while L/R both can hit him
-Bubba (1/3 2B) only Yank he's faced
-goes probably 7, max, if he survives early going
-BP alright, and should improve greatly with closer Isringhausen back in the lineup - Cards mighta run away with division had he been around all year
CG over Astros was a surprise; only 1 other start (he's made 11) where he went as many as 7 (8 in 8-1 win vs Mont -- notice it again was at home).

Clemens:
-4th try going for #300; mighta got it in last, but left early (6.1 IP, 84 pitches) due to "respiratory infection"...no reported health problems coming in
-not a single CG this year, and none in '02 or '01
-1st vs Cards, several have seem him in limited appearances, with mixed success
If Clemens is on tonight - and he looked pretty good vs Cubs - then I think he might make it through 8, and just let Rivera mop up, trying to avoid Acevedo or some other mid-garbage. Bats get to Simontacchi and he may go shorter, but I think if it's within 2 or 3 runs he'll be allowed to complete 8.

-Yanks definately hitting righties better, and yesterday's performance vs Robertson doesn't mean they've reversed their hopelessness, but this lineup is powerful,POPS 810

-Cards bats hitting everything lately and on season; #s drop off just a bit on the road,POPS 820

Pitching edge to Yanks here, as I'm lookin' at 82-69
I think I can safely call Yanks, 65-35, meaning that I have to pass on the nasty -200. Runline at even money is a thought ... Yanks will undoubtedly try to cushion any lead, to get this nonesense over with. Pending...

Total at 9.5 seems high, the way the Yanks bats have been going, but we do have a couple of killer lineups swinging here, and Simontacchi won't make anyone quiver.

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Watch my daddy in bed a-dying, watch his hair been turning grey
he been workin' and slavin' his life away
(The Animals-We Gotta Get Outta This Place)

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Wood:
-5 days rest since holding off Clemens in his last; threw a whopping 120
-control has been a problem at times, not so much in general(only 40 in 85, w/111 K), but TIMELY; this guy has the stuff to win the Cy annually, but his composure must improve for such to happen. I say this because bad (for him) game that he has had, opponents have had a big inning off him (3, 4 runs), as opposed to them scoring in consecutive innings (1st loss @cinci maybe one exception, and there the Reds scored in the 2nd(1), 4th(1), and 6th(2).
-6 double digit K jobs this year, including his past 3 starts
-years past he has struggled some in interleague play
-no current Jay has faced him
My old(er) age has seen me come to appreciate great pitching a bit more than great hitting, and I love watching this guy throw. I imagine he must carry a huge intimidation factor, also, not unlike those who faced Ryan and Clemens(in his/their prime).

Escobar:
-he himself acknowledges that he "...just threw the best game of (his) life," as he blanked the Reds at Cinergy, 8-0 (CG,4h,1bb,8k)
-only 3 HR surrendered in 45 IP
-4 days rest, threw 110
-lefties hitting .195, R .333 on season
-2.08 era, .198 oba on road, while 9.82(!), .368 at Skydome, '03
-has faced several current Cubs, a handful of times, and has fared well vs
Often disgruntled with his role with Jays, regardless of what it is, I haven't been too excited about this guy. He has great stuff, but often has difficulty harnessing it. Not that his last was an abberation, but I don't figure he'll keep it up the entire season; maybe give him some confidence for a nice stretch.

-Jays bats coming back to earth VS LEFTIES (year in and out trouble, here), but continue to pound R (.335 last 10, .294 year, and .314 at home), POPS 854

-Cubs .276 last 10 (.252 year, .269 road) vs R; Sosa and Choi will be missed, and yesterday's stinker vs the unimpressive Helling may be a sign of things to come for this next stretch, POPS 716

Cubs pen declining a little lately, by my assessment, but still much better than Jays. Pitching edge overall to Chi here, 91-78
I give the Jays a small edge, here, as I think the difference in offense should overcome any pitching loss. Escobar has not performed well at home, which is cause for concern, but Cubs bats are lacking without Sosa - not much concern with pitching around anyone in this lineup right now. Call is Jays 54-46, so low because of the Wood factor.
Jays even money would be a pass for me, while +110 or better might trying for a unit.

Total at 8.5 interests me more. Jays have never seen Wood, and may hope they never see him again after this one. Escobar's crap Skydome #'s have to improve somewhat, and he should have success against a depleted Cubs lineup that just flew in from a tough series in Baltimore, in which they took 2 of 3, but scored only 5 runs in the games started by lighter-throwing righties (Hentgen and Helling).
Taking it while I can still get +money.
PLAY:
Cubs@Jays under 8.5 +105
1/1.05

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One way or another, we're all the same
(Cactus-One Way or Another)

 

[Spock]

I would definitely side with the Under. Roof shud be closed also. No wind to drive the ball couple of feet farther.

Woods shud be able to K his way thru the Jays lineup.

Escobar shud be pumped up to put up a good performance.

Good luck bud
Spock

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Chacon:
-no middle-ground for this guy, this year, as he either tosses a gem or throws a stinker; last was stinker vs Royals, on the heels of two gems (@SF and vs LA)
-allowed 2 HR in last, after having only given up 4 the previous 12(all) starts (80.1 IP, 6 HR, season)
-had 3 crap to start May, otherwise hasn't had back-to-back poor starts (likely means nothing)
-era over 4 (4.37) for 1st time this year
-#s better at Coors, than road, this year
-bullpen behind him is a crapshoot (NOT good)
Certainly looks like Chacon is having a career season, as he has been nothing special historically, but a few more stinkers will quickly get his numbers up to those of previous years. This guy is impossible to figure out; numbers dictate that I give him credit, in my 'capping, but too much confidence in this guy is unwarranted.

Cornejo:
-Not sure how this guy is keeping the era (3.11) so low, as hits>IP, BB>K (18-13!), and allowing app. 1 HR/9IP (not bad)
-roughed up some in his last, @SF (4 days rest, 73 thrown)
-BP behind is pretty solid, certainly much better than Rocks
Numbers warrant some respect for this guy, too, but his competition has been weak, facing less powerful offenses virtually every time out - O's he handled, twice, but their bats have been overachieving; M's hit him hard, SF with 11 hits off him in 5.1 in last (others faced: Chisox(2), Royals, A's, D'Rays, Indians(2), Padres)

-Rockies bats hitting lefties much, much better on year, but #s finally starting to come up vs R (.263 past 10, just .250 year(vs .321 L), and .220 road),POPS 753

-Tigers bats perpetually pathetic, but have picked it up vs L lately (.284 last 10). Trouble is, Chacon's a righty, and Tigers just .193 last 10, .210 on year and at home, vs R, POPS 592

BP inclusion lowers the pitching edge a little to Rocks 77-75.
Rockies a pathetic 8-24 on road, Tigers 5-24(!) at home ... something has to give. Rocks have all-round edge in this one, save for BP's. My call is Rockies 62-38, reduced from higher due to Rocks pathetic road record.
-145 gives me negligable value, at 62%. Rocks did beat Radke, but dropped the next two in Minny, including the pounding they experienced last night ... maybe they will assert themselves here, but spacious Comerica may mean that they will have to do things the hard way -- I don't know if this club is the best at low-scoring, tight games. Tigers were competitive w/Dodgers, depite being swept.
Runline is tempting for me, at +115, simply because I am not convinced that Cornejo is for real. Small if it happens. Pending...

Total at 8 looks way, way too low to me. This is not the Dodgers staff, here, and both starters, arguably, having been doing their thing with smoke and mirrors, if yaknowhatimean. Totals hasn't seen me produce my best work, lately, but this one looks good; +money is the clincher.
PLAY:
Rockies@Tigers over 8 +105
1/1.05

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We can get it tomorrow, or today
(John Lennon-Give Peace a Chance)

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Perez:
-has had very little to offer lately, tossing a good vs KC, and chucking 3 stinkers @Mil,@Col, and vs Chisox, over past 4 (4G, 21 IP, 35 hits incl. 6 HR's)
-no BB's, 10K, over past 2 (12 IP), about only plus lately
-lefties hitting .203, R .304, on season
-faced current Injuns a handful of times, and the injured Burks has the only hit vs
-pen behind him is as good as it gets
Numbers are still respectable, on the season, but won't be for long if he keeps this up. Has not looked good even in Dodgers Stadium (pitcher's park), so coming into Jacobs Field is cause for concern. Lineup he's facing may be only saving grace.

bAnderson:
-does not impress; had a couple decent starts vs Chisox, his opener vs O's, and survived vs A's and Angels, but has been pounded otherwise (incl. last @Arizona)
-several current Dodgers have enjoyed hitting against him, as have more major leaguers
-BP unimpressive
What can I say? I have little faith in this guy ... might take him over Glendon Rusch, or something ...

-Dodgers bats remain pitiful, though facing lefties they have a better chance (.233 last 10, .275 year, .282 road vs L), POPS 732

-Indians hitting R better this year; vs L: .192 past 10, .235 year, .233 home, POPS 678

If the Dodgers could get hitting, they would be a force to be reckoned with; already are, but great pitching has been saving them. Perez is better than he has been lately, but caution flags should still be employed when backing him right now. Still gotta give Dodgers pitching edge here, 78-65
Not just pitching edge; LA looks to have many factors going in their favor coming in here ... Indians didn't have to travel, though
Call is Dodgers 64-36
Dodgers -160 gives me negligable value, and pricey regardless.
LA did sweep Tigers, and low offensive output must be blamed at least partly on Comerica Park (not entirely on their bats), so I'm tempted to try for the 2-run win.
Runline currently is disgusting, at even money. Even the difference at +110 would make me hop, but I'm still searching for something better. PASSING with reservations, for now.

Total at 8.5. Can't do it. Had the over in Tigers meeting yesterday, and baserunners were happening, but timely hits were not. Indians poor bats will suffer loss of Burks, and Perez may have seen his shrink ... can't touch this.

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Angel of the lord, what are these tortured screams?
These are the cries of the carrots
(Tool-Disgustipated)

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

good luck tonite....

and yes, my eyes are bleeding....

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

This is hurtin' ... I ain't finding nothin' here.

Have a couple I'm tempting by, just using the Force, or what-have-you, so I'm gonna do some quick 'xtrap work and see if anything is worth delving into.

Looking into:

O's: -180 is joke for O's, no matter who is going, especially as their bats have been overachieving, in my opinion. Rusch is totally hopeless, though, O's numbers have been good vs lefties (except at home, .254), and Ponson has been sharp lately. Runline would be my only option, currently +115.

Pirates: I like Wells, just can't figure out this Zambrano - 2 straight good starts by him (@Cubs & @Astros - not bad in one before, vsAngels) makes me wonder. I give a slight edge to the Pirates bats, Pitt is only 1 game under .500 on the road while 12 games under at home, and D'Rays are 12-19 at home. Wells duration has been limited, lately, and D'Rays certainly have the better pen ... think I just talked myself out of this one.

Twins: -145 to -150 is again pricey. Webb a bit of an X-factor, for me (never seen him pitch), as he may be overachieving in the early going ... has been consistently good, though. Santana is great, but D'Backs have been pounding (.356 last 10) lefties lately (B.Anderson & D.May not exactly Koufax's, mind you). Another runline consideration, but Twinkies 0 vs Jennings was unimpressive ... 7 and 15 (last night) that followed may mean a bit of a sizzle-stretch for them.

Under 8, in the same game (webb/santana) is attractive, but I'm still unsure about Webb. Couple of solid BP's, though, regardless of Mantei's shelving.

Braves: M's bats have cooled WAY off, certainly vs righties. Call me sinsane, but I prefer Ortiz to Garcia. Chipper factor don't help, but I'm thinking about a shot, here.

Also considering playing SF@KC under 10, which looks way to high to me. George is not as bad as he's been lately (maybe close ) and KC will not have fun vs Schmidt. SF has been crushing lefties lately, mind you.

Three I already have (not yet listed):

Giants -1.5 -125
2.5/2

Chisox -1.5 -110
2.2/2

A's -1.5 +100
2/2

All 3 of these were glaring, and I liked them when the lines were 1st posted yesterday. I've learned not to hop on run-lines early, however, as big fave run-lines almost universally come down at some point, though they often go back up near game-time (this is what I've noticed, anyway).
Advantage goes to each fave here, for virtually every aspect.
I need 2 out of 3 of these babies.

Probably all I'm going to do, tonight.
Half a brain and I'd start work on tomorrow's games...

Think I will...

Good Fortune To All

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Just a poor boy, scratch my back on the razor's edge
this razor's edge I call my home
(Badlands-Rumblin' Train)

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

The damage so far:

Cubs@Jays under 8.5 +105 -+- 1/1.05
Rockies@Tigers over 8 +105 -+- 1/1.05
Chisox -1.5 -110 -+- 2.2/2
Giants -1.5 -125 -+- 2.5/2
A's -1.5 +100 -+- 2/2

Dang ... last time I played so many run-lines, all 4 won but 3 of them were by 1. What can you do?

Also 'tailing Fletcher on the Fullerton game - he is pretty hot on college ball from what I've seen the past few years.
I jumped early, at -120, now -140 to -145 ... hope this theory that many hold about going against the public is bogus.

Better keep my thoughts on that one to myself ... the pot can be stirred a-plenty without any help from me, if yaknowhatimean, and I got enough illogical folk to deal with here on the streets of T.O.

Have Fun!

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I'm just a boy who's intentions are good
Oh, lord, please don't let me be misunderstood
(The Animals-Don't Let Me Be Misunderstood)

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

I'm just a boy who's intentions are good
Oh, lord, please don't let me be misunderstood
(The Animals-Don't Let Me Be Misunderstood)

WIKKID song, man!!!

 

[Spock]

nice calls ..

defi will meet up soon
Spock