RIGHT BACK REVENGE IN THE PLAYOFFS
There is no more overused handicapping ploy used by the nation's punters than this. It's called the "Bounce Back Theory", the "ZIG-ZAG Theory" and a score of other epithets all with the same principle. That is to play on any team who lost their last game SU to the team they are playing tonight. As often happens, blanket rules however logical, disappoint the bettor with mediocre percentages. To illustrate my point consider the following numbers:
All NBA Playoff teams who are playing with revenge against an opponent they played in their last game are 334-280-12 against the spread. That's 54.3% and will make you a tiny profit over the long haul. Breaking down those 626 games we find that:
Road teams are 176-38-8 for 56.4%.
Home teams are 158-142-4 for 52.7%.
Teams playing with home loss revenge are 106-88-2 for 54.6%.
Home teams playing with home loss revenge are 54-43 for 55.7%.
Underdogs are 186-147-9 for 55.9%.
Favorites are 144-131-3 for 52.4%.
Road teams are 176-38-8 for 56.4%.
Teams playing with double revenge are 159-133-5 for 54.5%.
I could go on and on with every parameter imaginable with similar results. The trick to using Right Back Revenge is not the loss suffered by the avenging team, it's the SIZE of the loss suffered by the get even gang.
THIS IS WHAT YOU WANT TO LOOK FOR IN RIGHT BACK REVENGE
Play on any team in the NBA Playoffs who lost its previous game by 20 or more points if that 20 point loss came against the team they are playing today. That angle shows a 58-32 mark since 1990 good for 64.4% winners. If the opponent has a WL% of .700 or less, the system bolts to 36-13 for 73.3%.
There is no more overused handicapping ploy used by the nation's punters than this. It's called the "Bounce Back Theory", the "ZIG-ZAG Theory" and a score of other epithets all with the same principle. That is to play on any team who lost their last game SU to the team they are playing tonight. As often happens, blanket rules however logical, disappoint the bettor with mediocre percentages. To illustrate my point consider the following numbers:
All NBA Playoff teams who are playing with revenge against an opponent they played in their last game are 334-280-12 against the spread. That's 54.3% and will make you a tiny profit over the long haul. Breaking down those 626 games we find that:
Road teams are 176-38-8 for 56.4%.
Home teams are 158-142-4 for 52.7%.
Teams playing with home loss revenge are 106-88-2 for 54.6%.
Home teams playing with home loss revenge are 54-43 for 55.7%.
Underdogs are 186-147-9 for 55.9%.
Favorites are 144-131-3 for 52.4%.
Road teams are 176-38-8 for 56.4%.
Teams playing with double revenge are 159-133-5 for 54.5%.
I could go on and on with every parameter imaginable with similar results. The trick to using Right Back Revenge is not the loss suffered by the avenging team, it's the SIZE of the loss suffered by the get even gang.
THIS IS WHAT YOU WANT TO LOOK FOR IN RIGHT BACK REVENGE
Play on any team in the NBA Playoffs who lost its previous game by 20 or more points if that 20 point loss came against the team they are playing today. That angle shows a 58-32 mark since 1990 good for 64.4% winners. If the opponent has a WL% of .700 or less, the system bolts to 36-13 for 73.3%.
