by Jeff Fogle
A year ago at this time, I outlined five keys for evaluating NFL playoff teams. Those proved fairly prescient as the Seattle Seahawks graded out very well as a prototypical champion on their way to a Super Bowl victory. Let?s review those important categories with an eye toward seeing how this year?s 12 contenders rate.
Those themes were:
Multi-Dimensional Teams Are Better Equipped for Diverse Challenges
Strength of Schedule From the Regular Season Matters
Defense Still Wins Championships
Move the Chains, Avoid Turnovers!
Game Conditions Loom Large
As you study the odds for going the distance, and handicap each game on the board as it comes, try to look at each team through those lenses. Those are the skill sets that have proven the test of time for postseason success. Knowing which teams thrive in those skill sets will position you well for smart decision-making.
Let?s take them in order.
First, evaluate teams for dimensionality. It?s possible to reach the playoffs in the NFL on the wings of a big strength that helps hide other weaknesses. Once a team is in the playoffs though, they tend to run into opponents who are capable of disrupting that strength, or completely taking it away. Weaknesses then get exposed and attacked before the pretender is escorted out of the brackets.
Multi-dimensional teams have a variety of ways to win. If an opponent (or inclement weather) takes away the passing game, they can still run. If the opponent thwarts the full offense, a multi-dimensional team is still in the game because of its defense. Study the skill sets of each team to find ?fragile? entries who aren?t likely to survive the rigors of battle.
For strength of schedule, I?ve found over the years that Jeff Sagarin?s ratings at USA Today do a great job of rating schedules. Time and time again, contenders who played tough schedules in his ratings have shown very well in the postseason. Those who earned their tickets by beating up on easy schedules are quickly exposed when they have to step up in class.
Here are his 2014 schedule rankings entering the postseason.
2014 Regular Season NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings for AFC Teams
#4 Denver
#9 New England
#18 Cincinnati
#24 Indianapolis
#29 Baltimore
#30 Pittsburgh
Those are very strong indicators for Denver and New England who have earned the top two seeds in the AFC brackets despite playing the toughest schedules of the six teams remaining. There?s no obvious darkhorse meaning a longshot that?s better than realized because they were burdened with a tough slate. Both Indianapolis and Pittsburgh look to be relative pretenders, having won their divisions with very soft schedules.
2014 Regular Season NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings for NFC Teams
#10 Arizona
#12 Seattle
#20 Green Bay
#22 Carolina
#23 Detroit
#31 Dallas
Remember that there are 32 teams in the NFL. We now see that four of the six teams in each conference played below average schedules. Arizona would garner consideration as a darkhorse if their best quarterback wasn?t out for the season with an injury. Their second best quarterback may not be in position to shine either. Seattle looks like the team to beat. Dallas jumps out as the biggest pretender.
Moving to defense, here are the final regular season rankings in yards-per-game allowed.
2014 NFL Defensive Rankings (yards-allowed-per-game) for AFC Teams
#3 Denver
#8 Baltimore
#11 Indianapolis
#13 New England
#18 Pittsburgh
#22 Cincinnati
Looks like a big development here for the Broncos. They grade out very well on defense and in schedule strength while also having a Hall-of-Fame bound quarterback Peyton Manning running the offense. New England is in the top half of the league defensively. The top two seeds are fitting the needed prototype, while also benefiting from a bye week and home field consideration. Baltimore and Indianapolis catch the eye, but accumulated those stats against below average schedules.
2014 NFL Defensive Rankings (yards-allowed-per-game) for NFC Teams
#1 Seattle
#2 Detroit
#10 Carolina
#15 Green Bay
#19 Dallas
#24 Arizona
Yes, Seattle still has a fantastic defense! And, they did that against an above average schedule. Nothing has changed regarding Seattle fitting the prototype to this point in our discussion. Detroit?s defense may position them to score an upset this week against a Dallas team that faced a soft regular season schedule. Green Bay doesn?t measure up to Seattle on this side of the ball but at least doesn?t have defense showing up as a weakness.
Ball control and possession can best be evaluated by studying third down conversion rates and giveaway totals. I?ve put those together in a handy format this time around. I?ll post them in seeding order so you can visualize the brackets as you study the numbers.
AFC Third Down Conversion Rates/Giveaways by Seed
#1 New England: 44% on offense, 13 giveaways
#2 Denver: 44% on offense, 20 giveaways
#3 Pittsburgh: 45% on offense, 21 giveaways
#4 Indianapolis: 41% on offense, 31 giveaways
#5 Cincinnati: 40% on offense, 26 giveaways
#6 Baltimore: 41% on offense, 20 giveaways
The stars align fairly well there. The best conversion teams are in the upper half of the ledger. New England and Denver were the two best offenses at avoiding turnovers (the Broncos were tied with Baltimore for second best). As a composite, New England clearly stands way ahead of the field. Indianapolis looks like a disaster with a very high turnover count coming against a below average schedule.
NFC Third Down Conversion Rates/Giveaways by Seed
#1 Seattle: 42% on offense, 14 giveaways
#2 Green Bay: 47% on offense, 13 giveaways
#3 Dallas: 47% on offense, 25 giveaways
#4 Carolina: 42% on offense, 23 giveaways
#5 Arizona: 40% on offense, 17 giveaways
#6 Detroit: 39% on offense, 20 giveaways
This is where Green Bay has a chance to take out Seattle. Aaron Rodgers does a better job of moving the chains. And, the Packers managed to tie for first in conversions while leading the NFC with fewest giveaways. That is a sharp offense! Given the data we?ve seen so far, the NFC may come down to who wins the battle between Green Bay?s offense and Seattle?s defense in the conference championship round.
Game conditions are something you?ll have to monitor on a case by case basis. The bye teams will all be hosting games in cold weather cities in two weeks. Generally speaking, you want to avoid one-dimensional pass-heavy teams who have vulnerable defenses in cold conditions. Looks like the game conditions angle will provide an added kicker to the already strong profiles of Seattle, Green Bay, New England, and Denver.
In Summary
Let?s summarize today?s work:
AFC
#1 New England: very strong profile
#2 Denver: very strong profile (though Manning?s arm strength is ???)
#3 Pittsburgh: unimpressive stats vs. a very weak schedule
#4 Indianapolis: turnover prone vs. a disappointing schedule
#5 Cincinnati: worst AFC playoff defense, poor marks in ball control
#6 Baltimore: very soft schedule, but otherwise decent profile
NFC
#1 Seattle: very strong profile once again
#2 Green Bay: strong profile, but exploitable on defense
#3 Dallas: very soft schedule, issues on defense and with giveaways
#4 Carolina: defense the only strength
#5 Arizona: pieces just aren?t there right now
#6 Detroit: stellar defense gives them a chance to get lucky
Often, this exercise helps you find overrated bye teams and underrated Wildcards. This time around, it basically locks in the bye teams as well clear of the field in terms of what has historically mattered most in January. The ?big four? are already playing like champions usually play.
There?s still a chance upsets could happen. Anything?s possible in the playoffs, particularly when questionable weather is involved. But, this season?s bye teams are well-suited to weather challenges. Number three seeds Pittsburgh and Dallas would have to play perfectly to spring a Week Two upset at Denver or Green Bay even if they survive their openers. Cinderella will need to catch a few breaks to get invited to this Super Bowl ball.
Best of luck with your selections through the NFL Playoffs. The latter rounds could really be something special if league titans can play to their expected form.
A year ago at this time, I outlined five keys for evaluating NFL playoff teams. Those proved fairly prescient as the Seattle Seahawks graded out very well as a prototypical champion on their way to a Super Bowl victory. Let?s review those important categories with an eye toward seeing how this year?s 12 contenders rate.
Those themes were:
Multi-Dimensional Teams Are Better Equipped for Diverse Challenges
Strength of Schedule From the Regular Season Matters
Defense Still Wins Championships
Move the Chains, Avoid Turnovers!
Game Conditions Loom Large
As you study the odds for going the distance, and handicap each game on the board as it comes, try to look at each team through those lenses. Those are the skill sets that have proven the test of time for postseason success. Knowing which teams thrive in those skill sets will position you well for smart decision-making.
Let?s take them in order.
First, evaluate teams for dimensionality. It?s possible to reach the playoffs in the NFL on the wings of a big strength that helps hide other weaknesses. Once a team is in the playoffs though, they tend to run into opponents who are capable of disrupting that strength, or completely taking it away. Weaknesses then get exposed and attacked before the pretender is escorted out of the brackets.
Multi-dimensional teams have a variety of ways to win. If an opponent (or inclement weather) takes away the passing game, they can still run. If the opponent thwarts the full offense, a multi-dimensional team is still in the game because of its defense. Study the skill sets of each team to find ?fragile? entries who aren?t likely to survive the rigors of battle.
For strength of schedule, I?ve found over the years that Jeff Sagarin?s ratings at USA Today do a great job of rating schedules. Time and time again, contenders who played tough schedules in his ratings have shown very well in the postseason. Those who earned their tickets by beating up on easy schedules are quickly exposed when they have to step up in class.
Here are his 2014 schedule rankings entering the postseason.
2014 Regular Season NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings for AFC Teams
#4 Denver
#9 New England
#18 Cincinnati
#24 Indianapolis
#29 Baltimore
#30 Pittsburgh
Those are very strong indicators for Denver and New England who have earned the top two seeds in the AFC brackets despite playing the toughest schedules of the six teams remaining. There?s no obvious darkhorse meaning a longshot that?s better than realized because they were burdened with a tough slate. Both Indianapolis and Pittsburgh look to be relative pretenders, having won their divisions with very soft schedules.
2014 Regular Season NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings for NFC Teams
#10 Arizona
#12 Seattle
#20 Green Bay
#22 Carolina
#23 Detroit
#31 Dallas
Remember that there are 32 teams in the NFL. We now see that four of the six teams in each conference played below average schedules. Arizona would garner consideration as a darkhorse if their best quarterback wasn?t out for the season with an injury. Their second best quarterback may not be in position to shine either. Seattle looks like the team to beat. Dallas jumps out as the biggest pretender.
Moving to defense, here are the final regular season rankings in yards-per-game allowed.
2014 NFL Defensive Rankings (yards-allowed-per-game) for AFC Teams
#3 Denver
#8 Baltimore
#11 Indianapolis
#13 New England
#18 Pittsburgh
#22 Cincinnati
Looks like a big development here for the Broncos. They grade out very well on defense and in schedule strength while also having a Hall-of-Fame bound quarterback Peyton Manning running the offense. New England is in the top half of the league defensively. The top two seeds are fitting the needed prototype, while also benefiting from a bye week and home field consideration. Baltimore and Indianapolis catch the eye, but accumulated those stats against below average schedules.
2014 NFL Defensive Rankings (yards-allowed-per-game) for NFC Teams
#1 Seattle
#2 Detroit
#10 Carolina
#15 Green Bay
#19 Dallas
#24 Arizona
Yes, Seattle still has a fantastic defense! And, they did that against an above average schedule. Nothing has changed regarding Seattle fitting the prototype to this point in our discussion. Detroit?s defense may position them to score an upset this week against a Dallas team that faced a soft regular season schedule. Green Bay doesn?t measure up to Seattle on this side of the ball but at least doesn?t have defense showing up as a weakness.
Ball control and possession can best be evaluated by studying third down conversion rates and giveaway totals. I?ve put those together in a handy format this time around. I?ll post them in seeding order so you can visualize the brackets as you study the numbers.
AFC Third Down Conversion Rates/Giveaways by Seed
#1 New England: 44% on offense, 13 giveaways
#2 Denver: 44% on offense, 20 giveaways
#3 Pittsburgh: 45% on offense, 21 giveaways
#4 Indianapolis: 41% on offense, 31 giveaways
#5 Cincinnati: 40% on offense, 26 giveaways
#6 Baltimore: 41% on offense, 20 giveaways
The stars align fairly well there. The best conversion teams are in the upper half of the ledger. New England and Denver were the two best offenses at avoiding turnovers (the Broncos were tied with Baltimore for second best). As a composite, New England clearly stands way ahead of the field. Indianapolis looks like a disaster with a very high turnover count coming against a below average schedule.
NFC Third Down Conversion Rates/Giveaways by Seed
#1 Seattle: 42% on offense, 14 giveaways
#2 Green Bay: 47% on offense, 13 giveaways
#3 Dallas: 47% on offense, 25 giveaways
#4 Carolina: 42% on offense, 23 giveaways
#5 Arizona: 40% on offense, 17 giveaways
#6 Detroit: 39% on offense, 20 giveaways
This is where Green Bay has a chance to take out Seattle. Aaron Rodgers does a better job of moving the chains. And, the Packers managed to tie for first in conversions while leading the NFC with fewest giveaways. That is a sharp offense! Given the data we?ve seen so far, the NFC may come down to who wins the battle between Green Bay?s offense and Seattle?s defense in the conference championship round.
Game conditions are something you?ll have to monitor on a case by case basis. The bye teams will all be hosting games in cold weather cities in two weeks. Generally speaking, you want to avoid one-dimensional pass-heavy teams who have vulnerable defenses in cold conditions. Looks like the game conditions angle will provide an added kicker to the already strong profiles of Seattle, Green Bay, New England, and Denver.
In Summary
Let?s summarize today?s work:
AFC
#1 New England: very strong profile
#2 Denver: very strong profile (though Manning?s arm strength is ???)
#3 Pittsburgh: unimpressive stats vs. a very weak schedule
#4 Indianapolis: turnover prone vs. a disappointing schedule
#5 Cincinnati: worst AFC playoff defense, poor marks in ball control
#6 Baltimore: very soft schedule, but otherwise decent profile
NFC
#1 Seattle: very strong profile once again
#2 Green Bay: strong profile, but exploitable on defense
#3 Dallas: very soft schedule, issues on defense and with giveaways
#4 Carolina: defense the only strength
#5 Arizona: pieces just aren?t there right now
#6 Detroit: stellar defense gives them a chance to get lucky
Often, this exercise helps you find overrated bye teams and underrated Wildcards. This time around, it basically locks in the bye teams as well clear of the field in terms of what has historically mattered most in January. The ?big four? are already playing like champions usually play.
There?s still a chance upsets could happen. Anything?s possible in the playoffs, particularly when questionable weather is involved. But, this season?s bye teams are well-suited to weather challenges. Number three seeds Pittsburgh and Dallas would have to play perfectly to spring a Week Two upset at Denver or Green Bay even if they survive their openers. Cinderella will need to catch a few breaks to get invited to this Super Bowl ball.
Best of luck with your selections through the NFL Playoffs. The latter rounds could really be something special if league titans can play to their expected form.
