Richmond

DeadPrez

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I took Bowyer at +1500. He has 2 wins here and finished 2nd in the spring race last year. He just got married on the off weekend and he's capable of celebrating with a win.

Also took Almirola at +12500, he has a 3rd and an 8th on the short tracks this year, and Ambrose at +15000, he has 2 top 5's on the short tracks this year.

I like Kenseth at those odds as well Shiner, I see him actually even higher at +1350 now. Solid odds for Kenseth pretty much anywhere but a road course (and maybe Martinsville). Good luck :0008
 

Looselugs

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Nationwide

Trying these tonight:

Harvick over Kyle Busch +125
Regan Smith over Trevor Bayne -115
Brendon Gaughan over James Buescher +110

gl
lugs
 

Old School

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NASCAR Picks for Richmond

by Brian Polking, Sunday, April 20, 2014 9:59:44 PM CDT FFToolbox.com

Track Info:

Length: 0.750 miles
Shape: D-shaped Oval
Type: Short
Location: Richmond, Virginia
View Average Finishes



After an off week, the Cup Series returns to action Saturday night at Richmond International Raceway. The 0.75-mile short track has been called the "action track" over the years in large part because the lack of banking forces drivers to lean on each other through the corners, which inevitably leads to some bruised egos and battered cars over the course of 400 laps. While the race may ultimately come down to hard racing and even a bump-and-run in the final laps, getting in position to win requires smart pit strategy and avoiding mistakes. After all, track position can often trump speed while an unscheduled pit stop can ruin a driver's night in an instance.
From a fantasy standpoint, Richmond is a bit of a curveball. Big names like Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth and Brad Keselowski have all performed below their typical standards at Richmond, opening the door for fantasy owners to build their lineups around some different drivers this weekend. In Yahoo! leagues and in other formats that limit the number of times a driver can be used, this can actually be a blessing in disguise. After all, it should still be possible to have a big night at Richmond while saving starts from many of the fantasy juggernauts.
1. Kevin Harvick, #4 Budweiser/Jimmy Johns, Stewart-Haas Racing [Yahoo Class A]

Harvick is the defending winner of this weekend's race and a three-time winner at the track overall. Harvick is also the only driver with multiple wins at Richmond over the past five races, and during the stretch, he has four finishes of 11th or better. Meanwhile, his 9.7 average finish at the track since 2004 is the fourth best in the series. Harvick has eight top-12 finishes in the last nine races.

2. Carl Edwards, #99 Fastenal/Aflac/UPS/Subway, Roush Fenway Racing [Yahoo Class B]

He won at the track last fall, and no driver has been better at the track in the last six races. During the stretch, he leads all drivers with a 6.8 average finish, three top-five finishes and six top-10s. He has also scored a series-leading 231 points in the last six races at Richmond and has led a series-high 376 laps.

3. Kyle Busch, #18 Mars Brands/Interstate Batteries, Joe Gibbs Racing [Yahoo Class A]

Although his last three outings at Richmond have been below his typical standards, his overall record at the short track is still stout. His 7.2 average finish is the best in the series, and in 18 starts, he has 13 finishes of sixth better. More importantly, he has four wins at Richmond and has finished second on four other occasions.

4. Jeff Gordon, #24 Drive to End Hunger/Axalta, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class A]

Gordon hasn't won at Richmond in more than a decade, but he has remained one of the most-consistent drivers at the track. In his last 14 starts at RIR, he has piled up 12 top-12 finishes. During the stretch, Gordon has 10 top-10 finishes at the track, including six finishes of fourth or better.

5. Denny Hamlin, #11 FedEx, Joe Gibbs Racing [Yahoo Class B]

The Virginia native has enjoyed a lot of success at his home-state track. Hamlin's 8.9 average finish at Richmond is the second best in the series, and in 16 starts, he only has three finishes outside the top 15. More importantly, he has eight finishes of sixth or better a Richmond -- including a pair of victories since 2009.

6. Clint Bowyer, #15 5-Hour Energy, Michael Waltrip Racing [Yahoo Class A]

Bowyer is a two-time winner at Richmond. Since the start of the 2004 season, his 10.1 average finish is the fifth best in the series. For his career, Bowyer has 13 top-12 finishes in 16 starts at the short track. Meanwhile, he has three finishes of seventh or better (including a pair of top-two finishes) in four starts at RIR since joining Michael Waltrip Racing in 2012.

7. Matt Kenseth, #20 Husky/Dollar General, Joe Gibbs Racing [Yahoo Class A]

Richmond was never his strongest track early in his career, but Kenseth has been dialed in the past couple of years. He has four straight finishes of 11th or better at RIR, including three straight finishes of seventh or better.

8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr., #88 National Guard/Diet Mountain Dew, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class A]

He is a three-time winner at Richmond for his career. Although his most-recent win at the track came in 2006, Junior has been running well at the track recently. He has finished in the top 15 in each of the last four races at RIR, and during the stretch, he has compiled a 9.8 average finish.

9. Ryan Newman, #31 Caterpillar, Richard Childress Racing [Yahoo Class B]

In the last 10 races at Richmond, Newman has been one of the most-consistent drivers at the track. He has just one finish outside the top 15 during the stretch, and his 10.2 average finish ranks fourth in the series. Newman enters Saturday's race at RIR with five-straight top-15s at RIR, including a third-place run last fall.

10. Kurt Busch, #41 Haas Automation, Stewart-Haas Racing [Yahoo Class A]

Busch has been a little up and down at Richmond, but he is coming off a year when he finished ninth and second in two starts at the track while driving for Furniture Row Racing. This weekend, he will be driving much-better equipment as he prepares to make his first start at RIR with Stewart-Haas Racing. The last time the series visited a short track, Busch was in victory lane at Martinsville. He definitely has some upside.

11. Joey Logano, #22 Shell-Pennzoil, Team Penske [Yahoo Class B]

He has either been really good or really bad at Richmond, but there are a couple of reasons to be optimistic about his chances this weekend. For one, he finished a career-best third at RIR last spring in his first start at the track for Team Penske. Meanwhile, Logano has enjoyed an excellent overall start to the 2014 season. Don't let his inconsistent numbers at Richmond until now scare you off.

12. Tony Stewart, #14 Bass Pro Shops/Mobil 1, Stewart-Haas Racing [Yahoo Class B]

A broken leg kept him out of the Richmond race last fall, but Stewart could return to the track with a bang this weekend. After all, he is a three-time winner at the short track for his career. His 9.0 average finish at RIR since 2004 ranks third in the series. Stewart has four top-10s in his last five starts at Richmond (including two top-five finishes in his last three starts), and he should be good for a solid result this weekend.

 

Old School

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13. Jimmie Johnson, #48 Lowe's/Kobalt Tools, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class A]

Johnson is actually a three-time winner at Richmond, but overall, he has been somewhat inconsistent at the track. In fact, he has a modest 17.1 average finish at the track since 2004. Johnson has been particularly average recently, managing just one top-10 and no top-five finishes in his last five starts at Richmond. In Yahoo! leagues, you should definitely save Johnson for another week.


14. Brad Keselowski, #2 Miller Lite, Team Penske [Yahoo Class B]

He is still looking for a breakout performance at Richmond, but Keselowski has trended in the right direction at the track. He has five top-15s in his last eight starts at RIR, and both of his top-10s have come since 2012. Owners can probably get more bang for their buck by saving Keselowski for another week, but he does have some upside based on his recent results at RIR.


15. Kyle Larson, #42 Target, Chip Ganassi Racing [Yahoo Class C]

While the rookie has never made a start at Richmond in the Cup Series, it is tough to bet against him as well as he has been running. He has four top-10s in the last five races, and during the stretch, he has a pair of top-five finishes. Larson seems to be getting better with every start, and as a C-List option in Yahoo! leagues, his upside is unmatched.


16. Greg Biffle, #16 3M/Bondo, Roush Fenway Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Biffle hasn't exactly been bad at Richmond, but he doesn't offer a lot of upside either. After all, he has just one top-five finish in his last 15 starts at the short track, and he only has two top-10s during the stretch. Biffle does have four top-15s in his last six starts at RIR and that is probably his ceiling this weekend.


17. Kasey Kahne, #5 Farmers Insurance/Quaker State, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class A]

His first-ever Cup Series actually came at Richmond, but for the most part Kahne has been hit and miss at the short track. He has an 18.0 average finish at the track for his career, and in the last five races at RIR, he has just one top-10. Granted, he does have two top-15s in his last three starts, but considering he is struggling in general this year, don't set your expectations too high.



18. A.J. Allmendinger, #47 Kingsford/Clorox, JTG Daugherty Racing [Yahoo Class B]

After a rocky start to his career at Richmond, Allmendinger has emerged as one of the more consistent sleeper options at the track. He has finished 17th or better in his last seven starts at RIR, and he finished in the top 15 in both starts at the track last season. Expect a similar performance out of Allmendinger this weekend.



19. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., #17 Best Buy/Valvoline/Zest, Roush Fenway Racing [Yahoo Class B]

All things considered, Stenhouse had a pretty solid debut season at Richmond in 2013. After finishing 16th in the spring in his first Cup start at the track, he came back with a top-10 finish in the fall. The sample size is small, but you have to figure Stenhouse should at least be able to crack the top 20.



20. Paul Menard, #27 Menards, Richard Childress Racing [Yahoo Class B]

After failing to even crack the top 15 in his first 10 starts at Richmond, Menard has three finishes of 13th or better in his last four starts at the track. In fact, Menard finished 13th or better in both starts at RIR last year, including a career-best fifth-place run in the fall. He could provide a solid top-15 this weekend.



21. Austin Dillon, #3 Dow Chemical/Cheerios, Richard Childress Racing [Yahoo Class C]

Although fellow rookie Kyle Larson has had the more memorable performances thus far, Dillon has been the more consistent of the two. In fact, he has a 14.8 average finish in 2014 and currently ranks 10th in the point standings. Dillon will be making his Richmond debut at the Cup level this weekend, but he should at least provide a top-20.



22. Jamie McMurray, #1 McDonald's/Cessna, Chip Ganassi Racing [Yahoo Class B]

McMurray has had fast cars most of the year, but Richmond has never been his strongest track. After all, he has managed just two top-10s in his last 18 starts at the short track. I wouldn't completely write him off this weekend simply because he has shown a lot of speed in 2014, but he definitely isn't the safest pick.



23. Brian Vickers, #55 Aaron's Dream Machine, Michael Waltrip Racing [Yahoo Class B]

He has had issues at Richmond during his career, and since 2004, he has a dismal 25.4 average finish at the track. To be fair, his starts at the track have been sporadic in recent years as Vickers has searched for a full-time ride. Meanwhile, he has been solid in his first full season with Michael Waltrip Racing; he currently ranks 13th in points. Vickers still isn't a great option, but don't be surprised if he outperforms his career numbers this weekend.



24. Aric Almirola, #43 Smithfield Foods, Richard Petty Motorsports [Yahoo Class B]

While he has only made four starts at Richmond, Almirola did show noticeable improvement at the track between 2012 and 2013. After finishing outside the top 25 in his first two starts, he cracked the top 20 in both starts last year, notching a career-best eighth-place finish in the spring event. There are definitely more proven options out there, but Almirola could deliver a top-20 in a pinch.
 

Old School

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[h=4]25. Marcos Ambrose, #9 Stanley/Dewalt Power Tools, Richard Petty Motorsports [Yahoo Class B][/h]He has been heading in the wrong direction at Richmond after a fast start at the short track. Ambrose began his career with three finishes of 11th or better in his first four starts at RIR, but he has managed just one top-15 in six starts since. Worse yet, Ambrose has finished outside the top 20 five times during the stretch, including a pair of finishes outside the top 25 at the track last season.
[h=4]26. Martin Truex, Jr., #78 Furniture Row, Furniture Row Racing [Yahoo Class B][/h]Despite a seventh-place finish at Richmond last fall, Truex' record at the track leaves a lot to be desired. Overall, he has a 22.6 average finish in 16 starts, and he only has three top-15s at the track. In his last seven starts at RIR, Truex has just two finishes inside the top 20.

[h=4]27. Casey Mears, #13 GEICO, Germain Racing [Yahoo Class B][/h]Mears has been by far the most impressive driver from a smaller team this season. Heading into Saturday's race, he ranks 21st in points and has a 20.5 average finish. Meanwhile, he has shown he can at least stay out of trouble at the short track, reeling off 11 straight top-30 finishes. A top-25 finish is possible, making him a potential sleeper in deeper leagues.

[h=4]28. Danica Patrick, #10 GoDaddy.com, Stewart-Haas Racing [Yahoo Class C][/h]Sure, a top-25 finish is probably the best-case scenario, but Patrick has shown the ability to stay out of trouble at short tracks. In her brief Cup career, she has a 24.6 average finish in nine short track starts, including a pair of top-30 finishes in two starts at Richmond. That being said, the lack of upside limits her value to very deep leagues.

[h=4]29. Justin Allgaier, #51 Brandt, HScott Motorsports [Yahoo Class C][/h]The rookie has been slowly improving this season, and he has been holding his own lately considering he drivers for a smaller team. He has a 23.0 average finish in the last five races and has climbed inside the top 30 in points. Allgaier will be making his Richmond debut this weekend, but a top-25 is still possible.

[h=4]30. David Gilliland, #38 Love's Travel Stops/A&W Restaurants, Front Row Motorsports [Yahoo Class B][/h]Without any useful part-time drivers in the field this weekend, we are scraping the bottom of the barrel. Gilliland gets the nod in part because he has been one of the better small team drivers this year. He also finished 27th and 23rd in two starts at Richmond last year. If you are desperate in play in a very deep league, Gilliland could provide a top-30 finish.
 

DeadPrez

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In addition to Bowyer, Ambrose and Almirola posted earlier,

Kahne +1400
Edwards +1500
Stewart +2250

All mid range guys and long shots tonight :0008
 

kickserv

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Denny Hamlin to win TOYOTA OWNERS 400 at 12-1 odds

Carl Edwards to win TOYOTA OWNERS 400 at 15-1 odds
 

DeadPrez

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Adding the 48 to win. Law of averages play, the guy is bound to get one soon, he is starting 10th and +800 is long odds for him.

Finishing positions:

48 under 7.5 (-125)
5 under 10.5 (-120)

boogity boogity :0008
 

ShinerGrinder

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Frustrating! Figured it'd be Gordon or Kenseth with that last restart. Did well on matchups which has been rare this year.

Fun race. I wish they did more short tracks.

Dega next week will be ridiculous as always.
 
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