Road Blowout = Home Win

[Hucklebuck]

College Hoops Prospectus (a must read for the college hoops fan) has a stat about conference games where the road team is blown out (18+) and still has a rematch left at home. The SU win% is over 55% and that doesn't take into account the spread.

Game 1
Baylor @ Oklahoma
95-76 road team is blown out.

Game 2 Tonight
Oklahoma @ Baylor
Most people say "Why is Oklahoma only -3?"
Baylor has lost 5 in a row, the streak started @ Oke. Two teams going in opposite directions right? This is a prime late season conference upset and the line reflects that.

I am going to wait on playing this as I think the line will move in my favor.

Baylor + Points
Baylor ML

Looking at a couple more today

 

[airportis]

good info hucklebuck....check out LSU @ Miss. St also

 

[Coach_K]

I agree, great write up. GL

 

[Hucklebuck]

There are 5 other games that fall under this system today.

Miss St -1 vs LSU
Lost 81-57 @ LSU

AFA + 12
ML +700
Lost 78-53 @ UNM

Evansville PK
Lost 80-50 @ Ill St

Indiana St +3
ML +140
Lost 69-50 @ Drake

Towson -4
Lost 68-46 @ Georgia St

 

[Old School]

solid homework..

please make sure I get your final slate.

thanks OS

 

[bert07]

great info
thanks

 

[gjn23]

so when a team gets blown out on the road vs a conf opponent they have a 50-50 chance of winning the rematch at home?

that really doesnt sound like much of an angle.

 

[pistol495]

so when a team gets blown out on the road vs a conf opponent they have a 50-50 chance of winning the rematch at home?

that really doesnt sound like much of an angle.

I agree unless you are stikcing with the dogs and really only the larger dogs like AF tonight. You have a 55% chance of winning but you are getting paid almost 6 to 1. That seems worth it. Definitely doesnt seem like a good move to play any favorites unless you are willing to lay all that juice

 

[EagleGreen]

Great Stat HB! It's actually something I have followed for quite sometime! AF, EVANS, MISSST and BAYLOR are 3 of my plays 2nite

GL

 

[Hucklebuck]

Just locked in Baylor at +4 and +150 ML

Miss St is now a PK
AFA now +13
Indiana St now +3.5
Towson now at -3.5

I placed all the bets except Baylor at their earlier lines, just interesting to track the movement on these plays.

 

[Hucklebuck]

A near miracle comeback for Evansville and MSU lost in 2OT

Spreads ended up 3-3
- .27 Units
Dogs on the ML were 1-2
- .6 Units

 

[Theboundbook]

INDIANA ST was HUGE for me thanks to pointing out stuff in your thread.... AF was another one I cashed in on 3 times also..... 5-1 on 1st H, 2nd half, and games.... AF didnt cover 2nd half unfortunately.... Keep posting this stuff. Helps me save alot of time and I narrowed it down and picked IND St, AF and Baylor.. You know the results and I thank you for getting me to look at these games....