RR College and HSF football plan for 10/12-10/15

[Riff-Raff]

Recap To Date:

College Foots: 49-43-1 (-3.4 units)

HSF Degen picks: 19-16-1 (-4 units)

*Tres disappointed in last weeks Degenerate HSF pick. As league games go into full swing, I need to do a better job of identifying home field, rivalry, injuries, etc. Sometimes that information is hard to come by, short of calling the local coach and getting his game plan. Definitely not gonna happen for HSF. Anyway, onward....

Tonight Sun Belt..... *Was going to lay off and continue my work for this weekends games, but when there is only 1 game on the plate, well I couldn't resist.

I really expected more from the Rajun Cajuns (love that moniker) as big things were expected from transfer QB Anthony Jennings, an LSU transfer, who logged several games in the SEC, so stepping down in conference strength would hopefully lead to huge numbers. He has decent stats with 60% completion with 8 Tds and 2 more on the ground. His big problem is throwing completions to the opposition (2 picks in each of last 3 games). Cajuns have a talented back field, with #4 ranking in the Sun Belt rushing for 179.8 yards per game. (Appy St is ranked 3rd averaging 213 ypg) Senior RB Elijah McGuire is one of the nation's top RBs. Cajuns are coming off a bye week so injuries have had a chance to heal. Good thing because ULM had lost their last 2 games in OT,which was bound to weigh on their psyche.

Appy also coming off a bye. We all saw Mountaineers game with Tennessee so big expectations followed the OT loss. Appy was, and still is the front runner to win the Sun Belt crown. QB Taylor Lamb is affective as he has passed for 827 yards w/6 TDs. He has only 4 INT on 120 attempts this season.

I have gone back and forth on who wins this. Bottom line is Appy is the better team. It's concerns me that ULM has lost to some inferior opponents. Last season Appy won handily 28-7 however, this game is at Cajun Stadium so some home field here I suppose. The key here I believe is that ULM is dead last in pass defense. This provides a great opportunity for Lamb to stretch the field and put up some points. I will rest better with:

Appy St TT OVER 29....4 units... LOSS.. .. Gl

Back shortly with tomorrow's guessing.

 

[namja]

Like.

 

[hawkeye]

No hs stuff?

 

[Riff-Raff]

Like.

Like.

Thanks for the input!

Adding:

Hawks -6 over Blue Hose... 2 units... LOSS... *When I first saw this line I looked at it cockeyed trying to figure out what the odds makers were implying.

I will bite.... as the Hawks QB should torch Hose secondary, as QB Cody Williams is completing 63.4% of his passes, for 1,034 yards w/6 TDs with 2 picks. The ground game is healthy averaging 180 yards on the ground. The Defense gives up 28.5 ppg and 359.3 ypg.

Blue Hose come in 1-4. This team has been atrocious, getting outscored 52-10 in last 2 games. Ground game only averages 101 ypg on ground. The QB has been average at best. Defense can't stop anyone, and the offense can't score.

Last years score was Hawks winning 21-16. I'm a little leary of jumping all over this bet because it doesn't make a lot of sense to me. If anyone has any further information I would love to hear it. Play the Hawks.

Hawkeye- I will post a couple of plays in a little bit. Gotta make up for last weeks menagerie.

 

[Riff-Raff]

Somehow double posted

 

[Riff-Raff]

2 HSF for 10/13 & 10/14

For Thursday Night:

Saraland +13' Over Spanish Fort... 2 units..LOSS... . (-120) *I'm backing the Spartans here in what has become a huge Alabama High School Rivalry, called the "On the Hill" where these two will get it on and ESPN Productions will set up shop on Wed. adding more excitement to this contest.

Spanish Fort enters at 5-2, which is 2 losses more than they had all of last year as the Toros went on to capture the State Title. Toros haven't lost "On the Hill" since 2014 when a brash Saraland came in and cleaned their shoes on the Toros carpet. In 2015, Spanish Fort got some retribution winning 41-18. This year Spanish Forts offense is averaging 22.4 ppg. They have relied on defense to shoulder a lot of the load.

Saraland is 5-3 and would like nothing better than to upset their in town nemesis. Both Coaches admit this game is huge for both teams. Both teams sport Div 1 talent, as Spartans QB Jack West is headed (to West) to Stanford. Two standout Olinemen have full rides to South Alabama next year. Toros Defense features 2 studs going to LSU and Arkansas.

Saralands offense is averaging a decent 28.1 ppg of but I don't see that happening tomorrow night. As in most rivalries you can throw out a lot of the stats for a game like this. Spanish Fort is the better team on paper, but their offense has been somewhat pedestrian at times. Should be a hard hitting contest with neither team wanting to be humiliated on National TV. I'm not sure Spartans can win this, I forgot think they can keep it close, so let taking the points.

 

[Riff-Raff]

Adding: For Friday Night Lights HSF

Kennedy Catholic - 13' over Tahoma.... 2 units...WINNER... . (-120) *OK here we go again as once more we shift attention to Washington to look at 2 teams that are a complete mismatch on paper. Both teams are fairly new to each other as they were both recipients of League Realignment making a new conference called the North Puget Sound.

Lancers offense has been rolling right along, helping the team to a 5-1 record while we flip the script with Tahoma at 1-5. Lancers average 36.2 ppg. Bears average a measly 15.2 ppg. Kennedy appears to have a much deeper bench and while it replaced several athletes from the 2015 team that went 9-1, they have adapted fine. Lancers long time Coach retired last year and with his retirement went the Wing-T offense. New Coach has gone to the a spread attack and is throwing around the football more.

I'm very leery pulling the trigger after what happened last week. Still, I can't justify putting money on Tahoma which for the exception of 1 game has been a lesson in futility. Im again hitting the mismatch but hope for a better result this time around. Gluck!

 

[Riff-Raff]

Additional HSF Friday Night Fiasco:

*2 long time rivals face off in another CA Showdown on Friday...

The meeting between Edison and Los Alamitos will most likely decide the Sunset League Champ even with 4 football games left on schedule. It's just the way it is for these two as either team has won league going back 10 years, and the last 14 of 15.

Edison Coach Paul White has accumulated quite a trove of Ws in his storied career going 230-118-3. Thus far the only Charger loss is to Nationally ranked Mater Dei (42-0). While that might scare people off, let's not forget Mater Dei could probably beat some Juco teams. Los Alamitos will have to account for RB Jack Carmichael who ran for 4 TDs last week. QB Griffin O'Connor has tossed for 1,150 yards w/12 TDs, completing nearly 60% of his passes. The Defense has several Div 1 prospects and is fast and athletic. The Offense is averaging 32.8 ppg. The team is 5-1.

Los Alamitos Griffins comes in at 4-2. Their Coach is in his 4th year and replaced an icon but has quickly proved he belongs. His Defense returns 8 starters and he may have the most dynamic player on the field in all-purpose RB, CB, LB, and Special Teams player Dylan Laurent will be all over the field. The Oline is young but big. The Griffins 2 losses this year were to Long Beach Poly (27-20) and JSerra (45-35). Both opponents are no slouch in CA High schools. The offense is averaging 36 ppg.

One might expect that with the 2 offenses clicking that I might be swayed into an Over wager. The problem is that when these 2 meet they lock horns in usually low scoring affairs. Case in point was last years classic an Edison win 17-14. In fact I went back 6 years hypothesizing that the rivalry leads to low scores. In those 6 years the teams never broke 50. Most were defensive battles.

Los Alamitos has the athletes to again stay close. I also heavily lean to the Under here as the total is too high. So Los Alamitos +7'.... LOSS... and Under 56'... WIN.... each for 2 UNITS.... at (-120)... Gl

 

[Riff-Raff]

0-3 thus far this week, my bookie is smiling.

Fridays Fiesta---

1. San Diego State TT Over 39..LOSS
...3 units... *Aztecs travel short distance to Fresno (a god-forsaken place) to battle for the Oil Can, the prize of this rivalry. Home crowd isn't expected to be much as Bulldogs come in 1-5 and reeling. In addition, the Fresno State Fair is in town and there is a chance of rain, but right now just overcast. This team is a shell of the Pat Hill teams that would travel anywhere and play anyone. Current Coach is on the hot seat, but this team doesn't show much motivation in winning for the Gipper.

Aztecs were having a nice season when they were tripped up by South Alabama. In 2015 SDSU Defense was ranked high in several categories and with a slew of returning letterman expectations were high. Maybe the ship has been righted as last week Aztecs shut down UNLV, with the Rebs not completing a pass in the first half.

Heisman hopeful RB Donnell Pumphrey should have a monster game when he faces the nations 3rd worst run "D". I think he can get 200+ yards running wild in the green pastures of Fresno.

I think Aztecs should cover the chalk, but I'm playing the team total as I expect a few points tonight for SDSU.


2. Memphis/Tulane Under 26'.... 1st Half...WINNER... 3 units.... *Memphis goes on road to Tulane and I'm playing the first half under.

Coach Willie Fritz is credited with turning a program around. He brought with him the vaunted Triple Option that he had such great success with at Georgia Southern(winning Division IIA National Championship). The offense is getting 4.7 ypc and keeps the chains moving while controlling the clock. On defense the Green Wave have been efficient. Ranked 4th in the FBS in turn-over margin, the secondary has 5 Ints while only allowing 6 TDs through the air. The passing D has only allowed 171. 4 ypg. Tulane allows 22.4 ypg. Green Wave is currently ranked 13th Defense in the nation

Tigers offense has been humming right along. Gone is QB Paxton Lynch replaced by able Tennessee transfer Riley Ferguson. The offense is averaging 446.2 ypg and 41.3 ppg. Currently ranked 11th nationally, the O is potent, high octane. Coach Mike Norvell came over from Arizona State as the O-Coordinator where he had much success in the pass happy Pac 12. New Orleans native Dorland Dorceus averages 6.6 yards every time he touches the ball. On the ground as a whole they rush for 164.6 ypg. Ferguson has some impressive numbers; passing for 1,360 yards w/11 TDs and a completion rate of 66.3%. The problem for the Tigers is that the defense has virtually disappeared the last 2 weeks giving up a whopping 1,155 yards. In the last 2 games (Ole Miss & Temple) the QBs were able to pick the defense apart. Granted, Ole Miss is an offensive juggernaut however I can't say the same about the Owls. I think that all changes tonight and Tigers are sure to come out with a chip on their shoulders. The Pass D is no doubt the biggest weakness, but that doesn't mean Green Wave is capable of exploiting it....the stat that stands out is Tulane being the 2nd worst pass defense in the nation.

Tulane can only hope they don't find themselves down early as if they are forced to abandon the run they are ill equipped to playing from behind.

I'm playing the first half under because I expect Tigers to have to feel their way to stopping the Triple Option. In addition, Coach Norvell likes to mix the pass and run about 50/50, so I don't expect a lot of fireworks until the second half. Hopefully both teams will run and keep clock running.

 

[Riff-Raff]

Adding:

Louisville TT over 52....3 units.. LOSS.. ... *Sorry this is late. My pals and I brainstorm games each week while we wat pizza and beer of course.

Simply, a lot of people think Dukes D can keep them within the number. They may be tight, but I can't get over Duke giving up 24 to Wake Forest and Northwestern. And 34 to Virginia. This game could get ugly and I trust Bobby to unmercifully to run up the score to keep his team relevant to the committee.

 

[Riff-Raff]

1 more..... For Fri. 10/14

BYU -1/2.....+100... 4th Q..
. 2 units..WIN... . *Theory is when teams come to Provo from the flatlands, that Big Guys tire quicker in elevation, giving the edge to Cougs. Gl

 

[Riff-Raff]

Best of the Rest! For Saturday 10/15..

1. Texas San Antonio -3' Over Rice.... 6 units.... Not thrilled about the hook but I think I'm safe. Last week Rowdy handed Golden Eagle its lunch,scoring 55 points in a rout as a 14 point dog. TSA appears to be flying below radar. Earlier in the season, this team almost beat Arizona St. 2 weeks ago S. Miss crushed Rice. Owls give up 7.5 yards per play. (ranked 128th in NCAA)... Normal obstacles on the road really don't come into play here as Rice is a short road trip. Owls are 0-5 SU and have a horrid defense. A large bet for me so I hope I'm right.