RUGBY WORLD CUP 2003 (10 October-22 November 2003)

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crookycymru

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Well here it is......the sports showpiece has finally arrived after a four year wait. It promises to be a great tournament, unless you are a Welshman, with arch rivals England amongst the favourites to win the competition outright.

Whatever the outcome, it will probably be the best World Cup to date, and hopefully will raise the profile of rugby all across the world.

:rolleyes:

Firstly, I am not a big prop man, so the bulk of my plays will commence when the tournament starts on Friday. However there are a few I cant resist, which I will begin with the most obvious...WHO WILL WIN???

I have spent months and a good many nights asking myself this question. I am desperately trying to come up with a different answer, but I keep going back to the same team......Yes as a hard core Welsh rugby person, I am tipping England to win the World Cup.

I have to admit I have been one of Englands biggest critics. Time and time again, they have been faced with crucial matches, which they have blown in spectacular fashion. However, how things are changed.....a demolition job of a very good Irish team to win the Six Nation was followed by a hiding of the All Blacks, and the Aussies in their own back yard. The facts are they are the best coached team in the world, and have been playing the best rugby for some time. Anybody who tries to convince you otherwise is not telling the truth. Any ill discipline by the opposition is punished by kicker Johnny Wilkinson, who would not be fazed by Jim Furyks streaker running on to the pitch. Such is his concentration levels, he hardly ever misses, and in the heat of a battle, this is worth everything. Neither the All Blacks or the Aussies can call upon a reliable kicker, and I feel this will cost them the World Cup in the latter rounds. John Mitchells decision to leave out ace Andrew Mehrtens may have repercussions around Kiwiland come November.

The reasoning could go on and on, but now is Englands time. If they fail this year away from the media frenzy of the English press, then will they ever win it?? People talk about if the World Cup was played at Twickenham, England would win hands down. The decision to hand Australia may turn out to be a master stroke from Englands point of view, as they will be under less pressure. Forget the heat factor, you are only looking for excuses for England not to win. These days teams are rugby professionals, on par with most athletes in the world, whatever your sport.

Thanks to a popular book on this site for providing us with hands down the best price. Having already bet England at slightly bigger odds in Europe earlier in the year, I was not expecting a quote remotely near what we are getting. Load up your offshore, and lump on the English. By the time you have collected your winnings, this Welshman, will be long gone, had emigrated under the frenzy and excitement of the English press.

:cry:


4 Points England to win Rugby World Cup at 21/10 with Olympic

Now for the rest of us who bet with our heart. We have to have a Plan B...just in case England slip up again. Now I think England will meet the French in the semi-final, and we all know what the French are capable of.

I really think coach Bernard Laportes is amongst the shrewdest men out there. After a good couple of seasons, France have backed off in recent months. This could well be intentional, as nobody seems to be tipping up the French. However, rule them out if you dare. Who can forget what was possibly the greatest game of rugby to be played, when the French beat the All Blacks in that memorable game in the last World Cup. I cannot totally rule out that happening again, and thanks to this quote, it will cover a lot of the English losses should the French just get through to the final, and then who knows. :shrug: It is what it says on the tin......a Plan B, but one well worth having.

:brows:

1 Point E/W France to win Rugby World Cup at 12/1 with PaddyPower
 

crookycymru

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Now before tackling the next props, I tried to look how I think the World Cup will go from the quarter finals onwards. Here is what I got :

Quarter Finals

New Zealand vs South Africa
Australia vs Scotland
France vs Ireland
England vs Wales

Semi Finals

New Zealand vs Australia
France vs England

Final

England to beat New Zealand

Now looking at the quarter finals, I have to rule out the chances of South Africa, Scotland, and Wales, leaving the France-Ireland clash as the best quarter final.

How Far Will Each Team Progress?

:shrug:


5 Points Wales to be eliminated at Quarter Final at 4/7 with Stan James

Excellent value on this bet. Assuming Wales beat Canada and Tonga, then we are basically getting 4/7 on Wales to beat Italy. Losing to England should be a formality, so I will take the money and run. ;)


3 Points Double Scotland and South Africa to be eliminated at Quarter Final stage (Both 1/3 at Stan James)

Given the likely outcome, these teams are likely to face Australia and New Zealand respectively. Realistically, neither team have the class to win their quarters. At combined odds approaching 4/6 worth a bet providing no shocks occur in pool stages.

1 Point Ireland to be eliminated at Semi Final stage at 6/1 with Stan James

A part hedge bet. If Ireland defeated the French in the quarters, then we would have done our outright money. I really can only see the French pulling off a upset of the English, and not the Irish. If Ireland do beat France, then I cant see them troubling England, and we would have won back our France outright money and more thanks to this prop.
 
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crookycymru

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Adding my final prop, as I would have spent my mortgage before the tournament even started. :p

2 Points Johnny Wilkinson to score more points than Carlos Spencer at 4/6 with StanJames

Very confident that Wilkinson will figure here, especially as he figures in Englands opener against Georgia. Carlos Spencer is nowhere near a reliable kicker as is Wilkinson. If Daniel Carter figures in the All Blacks team, or Carlos Spencer has bad kicking day, then the goalkicking will be passed over. This should cost Spencer points, and given the fact England will attempt more penalty goals, with Wilkinsons kicking ability, should mean he lands the spoils here comfortably.

That is it from me until Thursday night, where I will post the first matches plays. Look forward to the bets posted by others.

Good Luck.....:)
 

british bulldog

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Many thanks Crookycymru. Excellant stuff and I will play some of those props. Well thought out process of elimination. Agree with the quarter final plays Scotland and South Africa. I will play that Irish play to go out in semi-final as I think they are a better side than France, but as you rightly say, you never know what to expect from the onion and snails.

Good luck with your wagering and I will follow you closely. You were the man last season and nothing since has changed my mind. :hail :clap: :thumb: :Yep: :walk: :hail
 

crookycymru

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WORLD CUP FIXTURES



All kick-off times are UK.
Friday October 10
World Cup
Pool A
Australia v Argentina (1100)

Saturday October 11
World Cup
Pool A
Ireland v Romania (1030)
World Cup
Pool B
France v Fiji (0800)
World Cup
Pool C
South Africa v Uruguay (1300)
World Cup
Pool D
New Zealand v Italy (0530)

Sunday October 12
World Cup
Pool B
Scotland v Japan (1100)
World Cup
Pool C
England v Georgia (1300)
World Cup
Pool D
Wales v Canada (0900)

Tuesday October 14
World Cup
Pool A
Argentina v Namibia (1030)

Wednesday October 15
World Cup
Pool B
Fiji v USA (0800)
World Cup
Pool C
Samoa v Uruguay (1300)
World Cup
Pool D
Italy v Tonga (1030)

Friday October 17
World Cup
Pool D
New Zealand v Canada (1030)

Saturday October 18
World Cup
Pool A
Australia v Romania (0730)
World Cup
Pool B
France v Japan (1000)
World Cup
Pool C
South Africa v England (1300)

Sunday October 19
World Cup
Pool A
Ireland v Namibia (1030)
World Cup
Pool C
Georgia v Samoa (1300)
World Cup
Pool D
Wales v Tonga (0900)

Monday October 20
World Cup
Pool B
Scotland v USA (1030)

Tuesday October 21
World Cup
Pool D
Italy v Canada (1030)

Wednesday October 22
World Cup
Pool A
Argentina v Romania (1100)

Thursday October 23
World Cup
Pool B
Fiji v Japan (1100)

Friday October 24
World Cup
Pool C
South Africa v Georgia (1100)
World Cup
Pool D
New Zealand v Tonga (0830)

Saturday October 25
World Cup
Pool A
Australia v Namibia (0600)
World Cup
Pool B
France v Scotland (1100)
World Cup
Pool D
Italy v Wales (0900)

Sunday October 26
World Cup
Pool A
Argentina v Ireland (0930)
World Cup
Pool C
England v Samoa (0700)

Monday October 27
World Cup
Pool B
Japan v USA (0830)

Tuesday October 28
World Cup
Pool C
Georgia v Uruguay (0830)

Wednesday October 29
World Cup
Pool D
Canada v Tonga (0830)

Thursday October 30
World Cup
Pool A
Namibia v Romania (1100)

Friday October 31
World Cup
Pool B
France v USA (0830)

Saturday November 1
World Cup
Pool A
Australia v Ireland (0930)
World Cup
Pool B
Scotland v Fiji (0400)
World Cup
Pool C
South Africa v Samoa (0700)

Sunday November 2
World Cup
Pool C
England v Uruguay (0700)
World Cup
Pool D
New Zealand v Wales (0930)

Saturday November 8
World Cup
Quarter Final
Winner D v Runner Up C (0730)
Telstra Dome
World Cup
Quarter Final
Winner A v Runner Up B (1000)
Suncorp Stadium

Sunday November 9
World Cup
Quarter Final
Winner B v Runner Up A (0730)
Telstra Dome
World Cup
Quarter Final
Winner C v Runner Up D (1000)
Suncorp Stadium

Saturday November 15
World Cup
Semi Final
Winner QF1 v Winner QF2 (0900)
Telstra Stadium

Sunday November 16
World Cup
Semi Final
Winner QF3 v Winner QF4 (0900)
Telstra Stadium

Thursday November 20
World Cup
Third/Fourth Place Play-Off
Loser SF1 v Loser SF2 (0900)
Telstra Stadium

Saturday November 22
World Cup
Final
Winner SF1 v Winner SF2 (0900)
Telstra Stadium


 

kickserv

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Good luck to ya......but we all know Canada is a lock to win....and dam what's with those annoying fractions....we all know decimal is where it's at :D
 

Pumpkin

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Only one standout of the 1st weekend matches and that is fiji at the +27.5 line.

France have been slow starters in evry World Cup and with the game being played in Brisbane I think that both the Crowd and the conditions will be with the Islanders.

Also Kick you may enjoy this - I think Canada at the 21.5 is a little too big and may be tempted to tak e some, but will wait as the money normally comes fro the minus on gaem day.
 

hoss

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Almost time for the action to start :D :cool: I'm really waiting for the handicaps for a couple of games to come out, there are ( I believe) a couple of really overrated teams out there ( + the odd 'surprise' waiting to happen).

As far as the outright markets go - I can't really see the final 4 being anything other than England, NZ, Australia and France - the latter 2 may come unstuck (Australia maybe sooner rather than later), but I couldn't predict anything other than an England v All Black final based on what we've seen over the last 12 months. Whilst it's a particular pleasure to see a Welshman predict an England victory :p , I'm not convinced they'll beat NZ when it matters. No bet for now, plenty of time to consider further.

I know Crooky isn't a fan of props, however I am :D . For me, the compilers only consider past statistics + have to try and guess the team line ups well in advance - this leaves good opportunity to pick them off once the early info is public knowledge. The Cricket World Cup showed this :cool: I've been backing these for the last couple of days so apologies if any prices have gone.

Top WC Try scorer - I'd expect that around 8 or 9 tries will be needed to win this - Kiwi's have pretty much had a stranglehold on this (being 1st + 2nd every year by 1991). It's also very rare for anyone from outside the serious title contenders to have a shout. I'm backing 2:

2pts e/w Howlett 8/1 - fairly predictable, but can't see the point of backing him at 13/8 to be top NZ tryscorer when this is price is available with 4 places!! As shown above they'll be pretty similar things anyway. 24 tries in 31 games + in what looks the easiest group to boot. It's rumoured that teams will not go 100% against NZ (pointless task) - so plenty of tries should follow.

1pt e/w Roff 25/1 - picked to start on the wing in the Aussies 1st game - whilst they have 2 tricky group games - Namibia and Romania look two of the weakest teams in the Comp + will provide great opportunites to score a few.
 

hoss

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Top team try scorers:

England 2pts Jason Robinson 4/1: Assuming England keep the basic back-line they've picked for the 1st game, I can only see 3 winners here - Robinson (12 tries from 21 games), Cohen ( 23 from 29) and Greenwood (25 from 41). Lewsey will struggle to score many from full back + Luger looks likely to be used as a sub. Whilst Robinson has the worst percentage of the 3, the key is that it looks like he'll play on the wing, rather than full-back where he's been used so often. I dread to think how Uruguay and Georgia will stop him, given the trouble the top nations have had with him. At the available prices Cohen is too short (2/1), leaving Greenwood the e/w danger. I'll trust Billy Whizz though :D

New Zealand: no bet due to Howlett outright play.

Ireland: 2pts Shane Horgan 7/1: careful here as there are two Horgans (Tony is other). This will be decided on 2 games - those versus Namibia and Romania. Shane starts on the wing v Romania, giving him a significant edge over Kelly and tony Horgan. Again, can only see 3 winners Hickie (great record, but too short priced), O'Driscoll ( Ireland's star man will surely be closely watched) and Shane Horgan. At these odds and given that he appears to have recovered from his recent injuries the Leinster flyers the one for me.

Australia: 1pt Roff 11/2, 1/2pt e/w Mortlock 14/1 - Tuqiri has been left out, can't expect Mat Rogers to score loads from full back. Larkham and Flatley aren't big scorers and I guess Burke may well be dropped to the bench after the 1st game. Sailor is too obvious and is again discounted on value grounds. This leaves Roff and I'll also have a value play on Mortlock - he misses the first game, which is a toughie anyway through illness, but should be back for the later + easier matches - hopefully he'll be no more than a couple down on anyone.
 

hoss

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and the rest:

Scotland: no play until team news out for 1st game:

France: 2pts Rougerie 4/1, 1/2pt e/w Marsh 14/1
11 tries from 22 games for Rougerie, who boasts the best strike rate of the current French side. Traille and Garbajosa absence makes his task easier. The French love to play expansive rugby + the USA and Japan will make this an easy option, where the french should dominate the ball. the game against Fiji should be a joy to watch too. Hopefully our man will be on the end of them!
Speculative point on Tony Marsh, who is a surprise choice to partner Yannick Jauzion in the centres. His scoring record has been impressive so far (6 tries from 11 games) + I doubt he'd have been this price if the team news was out sooner.

Wales: 1pt Gareth Thomas 5/1 - there seems to have been a fair bit of confusion around about who the likely starters for Wales will be. Of the chosen line-up only Mark Jones and Thomas have any sort of scoring pedigree + while I wouldn't put anyone off backing Jones at a best price 7/1 too, I'll take Thomas. i'll let Crooky post a value alternative ;)

South Africa: 2pts e/w Willemse 6/1 - favourite Stefan Terblanche isn't even on the bench - nor is 3rd fav Breyton Paulse!!Makes Willemse a decent each way bet in my opinion. Delport may well be the danger.

That's enough to be going on with - if anyone wants a big priced bet - try an each way Lucky15 with Paddy Power (1/5 1,2,3) of Marsh 14/1, Delport 9/1, Mortlock 14/1 and Greenwood 6/1 - cheer it on for me otherwise!

good luck + look forward to reading others views
hoss

ps 3pts Argentina (+17) v Aussies - 1st match nerves aginst an underrated outfit who will give the Irish a fright!
 

PAWAQATSI

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hoss said:
ps 3pts Argentina (+17) v Aussies - 1st match nerves aginst an underrated outfit who will give the Irish a fright!

You've got to be kiddin me? :shrug:
"1st round nerves" from the defending champions of the world. Now I've heard it all!! :thefinger
 
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hoss

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Sorry PAWA, couldn't resist it - it says 1st match nerves anyway! World Champions they may be, but that was 4 yrs ago!! 3 years later they're getting beaten by Ireland!!!!!:moon: oh, and England,...at home.....

They may cover easily, I just think the value lies elsewhere - must be a lot of pressure going into your home tournament as only 3rd favs...
 

Anders

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Am also on the Argies at +17 :D

Reasons: Uh, duh, their forward pack will give the Aussies plenty at set piece time - this Wallabies pack isn't good enough for them to win the title... not saying ours is yet either ;)

Also, Honiss refereeing - is very officious, will ping plenty of penalties, ignore all this IRB-hype of a free-flowing game...and the Argies can kick... ;)

Sure, wouldn't surprise me if the Wallabies went dambusters on opening night but I'll happily take the pts...

GL all :)
 

crookycymru

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Looks like the whole forum is on the Pumas tomorrow. As per usual, the Aussies disagree but I wouldnt rule out a upset tomorrow. I compare this game to Wales World Cup opener back in 1999. They too were well fancied, and Argentina kept it tight.

Having said that, I think Australia will be good enough to get the job done, and I dont see the spreads being too far off the mark. I see Australia winning by ten points plus.....they might just fall short of the spread, but they might just pass it. :shrug:

Plenty more games left to bet on, so passing on the opener, but will be cheering the forum on, as I love a underdog, but I feel they will fall a little short tomorrow.

Good luck all....let it be a great World Cup!!! :toast:

Back tomorrow with Saturdays plays, and will be updating the Celtic League thread.
 

Anders

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Ok, I'm a degenerate :rolleyes: :D

To Win: France 12-1
Top Scorer: Koen 14-1
Bad Boys: Tonga 7-1
Top Tryscorer: Muliaina 33-1, Blair 66-1
Top NZ tryscorer: Muliaina 12-1, Blair 40-1
Top SA tryscorer: Van Niekerk 80-1

Argentina +17 v Aus
All Blacks -60.5 v Italy
Ireland/Romania middle :eek: -46/+52 :moon:
Fiji +30 v France
Canada +23 v Wales :D kyle, :thefinger gareth
England -85.5 v Georgia

Let's rock :cool:
 

PAWAQATSI

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Pumpkin said:
I'm an Aussie and on the Pumas:shrug:

Your also a disgrace pumpkin!!! :thefinger
I seem to remember you were usually going against the Aussies during the Cricket World Cup as well. :nono:

I also remember all you 'northern guys' saying we wouldn't / couldn't win that one again either (especially after Warne was sent packing).


But then I vividly remember this...........

_38997943_cupap245.jpg


Im on the Aussies tonight -14.5 and we win it by 20!!!
:moon:
 

crookycymru

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Australia 24-8 Argentina

Largely unimpressed with both teams. The Pumas were very poor for my liking. They did not seem to have any pre planned moves in their backline, and you cannot compete against International opposition by being driven off your own ball, and failing to throw in straight at the lineout.

People will talk about the Aussies great defence, but it is not hard to tackle people who are coming at you from two yards out, and standing still. I guess the most happier people are the Irish, who at their best can beat both these teams. However, I expect Australia to improve.

On a more positive note, a great result for the forum. Those backing the Aussies, were backing at around fourteen points, whilst Puma backers covered by a single point. A great middle!! :thefinger

Back soon with weekends picks. :)
 
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