RUN-LINES - can someone explain the MATH??

[Randercity]

I'm very good with numbers, but am wondering is there a mathematical formula used in figuring the run line??? Is it different based on the OVER/UNDER, HOME/AWAY or what??
I'm confused

For instance, VIP SPORTS has the following:

Atl -165 -1.5 -110
MILWAUKEE +155 +1.5 -110

Oakland -160 -1.5 -110
DETROIT +150 +1.5 -110

Florida +140 +1.5 -155
ST LOUIS -150 -1.5 +135

Montreal +145 +1.5 -150
HOUSTON -155 -1.5 +130

This seems odd to me, very odd. Are they implying a ROAD FAV is not as likely to cover the 1.5?? It seems to me, that the value here is in taking the HOME TEAM +1.5 at basically even money. Laying -110 and being able to LOSE the game, and still win when you get last at bats seems to be the way to go... THINK I'll be on BOTH MILW and DETROIT tonite!

Any thoughts???

 

[JohnWise]

I am no expert on the statistics they use to determine the lines. But I would think offhand that if a team has a certain value as a money line then it equates to a certain value as a run line. And all teams with the same value as a money line should equate to the same value as a run line.
The reason for a run line in bases is also a guess. In hockey, there are puck lines. Simply because that if the book used money lines during regular season, all the ties would be no action. Not good for business there. My guess is for baseball that it just gives the player another option and that gives the book more ways to make money.
One thing I have noticed about run lines. The books are slow to move them. You can have a game come off the board because of a major scratch or whatever and when the game goes back up at a new price on the money line, you may still see the same run line price as before.
For what it is worth.

 

[Man O' Vegas]

These days home favs are getting about 80 cents, road favs about 40 cents. They've really taken a lot of value out of the road teams since they got popular a couple of years ago.


MOV

 

[Nick Douglas]

Theoretically, the home team would have more one run wins than the road team because:

1) Most extra inning home team wins should be by one run. Anything except a walk off homer guarantees that the home team cannot win by more than 1 run.

2) No bottom of the ninth to tack on a garbage run for the home team.

Therefore, if the road team is the fave, the -1.5 run line should not have such a wide variance. If the home team is favored, there are theoretically more situations in which the home team will only win by 1 run, so therefore there is a bigger margin between moneyline and runlines.

BTW, as far as hockey goes, plenty of books have both moneylines and pucklines. I use them both, myself. I know Grand Central, Sportsinteraction and Wagerstreet were the three I used last year that offered both.

 

[Randercity]

Thanks for all the input, it does make more sense now. I figured it had something to do with the LAST BATS situation, but it STILL seems to me, a SOLID home dog is a good play on the RUN LINE. Many games are WON in that last at bat, or a team comes close to winning it which is GOOD enough!

 

[JohnWise]

I am sure you are right about the home or away thing. Yes, I know that some books do have money lines with hockey. I find it puzzling though... if I were a bookie, I would use puck lines for reasons mentioned above. Or offer both. Hey, wherever you can get an edge, go for it.
Thanks

 

[katts]

Another thing: the higher the total, the higher the probability to get a 2+ runs win. So the straight line vs run line ratio can also be considerably affected by the posted total.

For instance, tonight, you have the 2 following games... note that the straight lines are similar but not the totals, therefore the run lines are a quite significantly different:


-----------------------------------------

Philadelphia (Daal) +150
San Francisco (Ortiz) -165

Total: 9u

Run Lines:
Philadelphia +1.5 -150
San Francisco -1.5 +130

-----------------------------------------

Pittsburgh (Anderson) +150
Colorado (Hampton) -165

Total: 12.5o

Run Lines:
Pittsburgh +1.5 -120
Colorado -1.5 EVEN

-----------------------------------------

The oddmakers expect the game in Colorado (like any in there) to be a high scoring one, and therefore the probability of a 2+ runs win is higher than the Phi/SF game. So you get a lower payoff if you lay the 1.5 run (and vice versa).