RunLine, Yes or No pct %

[Its Gravy]

Tuesday there were 15 MLB games

5 out of 15 decided by 1 run (33%)

4 out of 15 decided by 2 runs (27%)

6 out of 15 decided by 3 runs or more (40%)

Will continue for about 1 month..
Preliminary status shows a parlay with 3 runlines is suicide. Picking 1 runline seems most feasible, combining it with 1 side moneyline. (Just trying to figure out how to make more cheese, w/o too much more risk involved.)

 

[Its Gravy]

Wednesday there were 15 MLB games

5 out of 15 decided by 1 run (33%)

3 out of 15 decided by 2 runs (20%)

7 out of 15 decided by 3 runs or more (47%)

 

[HONUS]

A more relevant stat is fav's winning by only one run. That's the only time the run-line matters...as far as a loss is concerned. The rest of the time, it's gravy.

So, of the 15 games, how many times did the run line hurt?

 

[Its Gravy]

lemme check on that

 

[Its Gravy]

Tuesday Favorites that won by 1 run

StLouis 3-2 over Cubs
Boston 5-4 over Tampa Bay
Seattle 8-7 over Oakland

Wednesday Favorites that won by 1 run

Mets 4-3 over Expos
Dodgers 4-3 over DBacks
CWSox 2-1 over Royals
Toronto 6-5 over Orioles.

Looks like Favs, that win by 1 run go under 60% of the time

 

[nemo]

its a fact, runline conquers moneline

 

[Its Gravy]

Tuesday, (3 out of the 5) 1 run games were favorites winning by 1 run.


Wednesday (4 out of the 5) 1 run games were favorites winning by 1 run.

I just would be careful. Play a favorite on the runline if

They are over .500 and

Lost their previous game in extra innings or

Lost by more than 4 runs in previous game or

They got shutout in previous game


[This message has been edited by Its Gravy (edited 06-21-2001).]

 

[Never Caught Up]

I like to do what "Gravy" said earlier and combine a runline bet with a moneyline bet. The net effect is you get rid of the hook and only lay 1 run instead of 1.5. It is easier to swallow a push than a loss.

Another big . . . maybe even huge . . . factor with runlines is whether the favored team is at home or on the road. Runlines are killers on home teams. I don't have the stats, but I am estimating there are probably three times more one run games where the home team wins by one than where the road team wins by one run over a long period of time. Might be worth looking into.

 

[nemo]

never caught up, youre right about it happeneing more for home teams and that is because of the possibility of extra innings and home team having last at bat. that is why home teams get much more value on a runline. A -150 home team will be about +140 on the runline but a -150 road team will only be about even on the runline. Another area of runlines that has not been discussed is the under/over of the game effects the runline as well. the lower the total the more value on a runline because runs are expected to be harder to come by.

"Always take the runline"