NFL YTD: 1-7 (-7.75*)
The bad news is that I have not started off by trying for the $1000.00 prize for last place in the Infinity contest. The good news (I think) is
that the mess of "I'm playing these" plays I've posted to date includes only two games that I posted with an endorsement or analysis (Indianapolis(-3') over Jacksonville, and San Francisco(-3') over NY Giants, both of which lost by 1/2 point). The fact is I was not identifying any matchups on which I had a solid opinion, and now I've got the scars to prove it. For me, with about the same amount of money on the line, taking the Jets(-1') over New England was much more of a "bad beat" than Wisconsin(-4') over UNLV, when the beat makes me wonder what the f**k I'm doing.
This week I certainly found at least a couple of games in which I REALLY thought I liked the chances of one team to set the tempo and control the action, and my homework during the week has only reinforced my expectations. With fifteen weeks to go, I think I'll find find out I've got something left in the tank.
MINNESOTA(-6) over Carolina for 2*:
An amazing stat from last week is that Carolina was able to beat Detroit 31-7 while converting on 1 of 13 3rd down attempts. Equally amazing is the exchange when Mitch Albom asked QB Rodney Peete, "How easy was it to beat this Lions team," and Peete rolled his eyes in sympathy and replied, "Pretty easy."
A slightly different perspective on beating Minnesota comes from the newspaper post mortem on the Buffalo game: Gregg Williams was a defensive coach before he took over as head coach last season with Buffalo. He's no stranger to devising game plans designed to stop one player. "We played less people in the box [Sunday] than I've probably ever played in my life," Williams said. "We wanted to minimize [Randy] Moss." Whether the tactic worked is debatable. Because of their commitment to stopping the pass, Buffalo yielded 213 yards rushing. And Moss still managed 11 catches for 111 yards and a touchdown.
I look for Minnesota to be in a nasty mood. Their coaching staff is still looking for their first win. Regardless of whether the present chemistry and effort can be sustained for the long haul, it appears to me that right now the Vikings are headed in the right direction every bit as much as Carolina, and they have displayed the resiliency to bounce back from the momentum swings during a game and the disappointments of the prior week.
The Vikings are vulnerable on defense (particularly their young secondary), they are still prone to the types of penalties, turnovers, and special teams mistakes they made even when they were rolling teams and they have not shown they can put a team away when they have the chance. Regardless, the biggest mismatch in this game is between Minnesota through the air against the Carolina secondary, and I expect the pressure from the front seven can be adequately dealt with. On the other side, it isn't Moulds/ Reed/Price and Bledsoe that will be trying to keep the Viking defense from getting after it.
There are likely some cautionary technical edges working against a winless team giving more than a field goal to an undefeated team. Dogs have been barking and home teams can't even get the SU win. It's looking like this is pretty much the most popular play of the week. So it goes. On the other hand, although it assumes too much, I believe12 of the last 15 Viking wins have been by more than 6 points. I am looking for the Vikings to kick the damn door down or gag the whole game away.
Winning breeds confidence and excitement. I respect the immediate results under Carolina's new regime. In going 2-0, Carolina has given up two sacks and not had a turnover. Carolina will amaze me if they march into a hostile Metrodome and continue to shine with such poise and efficiency, especially when they average 3.3ypc to boot. On the other hand, maybe it is pretty easy for them at this point.
Adding a couple more . . .
GL
The bad news is that I have not started off by trying for the $1000.00 prize for last place in the Infinity contest. The good news (I think) is
that the mess of "I'm playing these" plays I've posted to date includes only two games that I posted with an endorsement or analysis (Indianapolis(-3') over Jacksonville, and San Francisco(-3') over NY Giants, both of which lost by 1/2 point). The fact is I was not identifying any matchups on which I had a solid opinion, and now I've got the scars to prove it. For me, with about the same amount of money on the line, taking the Jets(-1') over New England was much more of a "bad beat" than Wisconsin(-4') over UNLV, when the beat makes me wonder what the f**k I'm doing.
This week I certainly found at least a couple of games in which I REALLY thought I liked the chances of one team to set the tempo and control the action, and my homework during the week has only reinforced my expectations. With fifteen weeks to go, I think I'll find find out I've got something left in the tank.
MINNESOTA(-6) over Carolina for 2*:
An amazing stat from last week is that Carolina was able to beat Detroit 31-7 while converting on 1 of 13 3rd down attempts. Equally amazing is the exchange when Mitch Albom asked QB Rodney Peete, "How easy was it to beat this Lions team," and Peete rolled his eyes in sympathy and replied, "Pretty easy."
A slightly different perspective on beating Minnesota comes from the newspaper post mortem on the Buffalo game: Gregg Williams was a defensive coach before he took over as head coach last season with Buffalo. He's no stranger to devising game plans designed to stop one player. "We played less people in the box [Sunday] than I've probably ever played in my life," Williams said. "We wanted to minimize [Randy] Moss." Whether the tactic worked is debatable. Because of their commitment to stopping the pass, Buffalo yielded 213 yards rushing. And Moss still managed 11 catches for 111 yards and a touchdown.
I look for Minnesota to be in a nasty mood. Their coaching staff is still looking for their first win. Regardless of whether the present chemistry and effort can be sustained for the long haul, it appears to me that right now the Vikings are headed in the right direction every bit as much as Carolina, and they have displayed the resiliency to bounce back from the momentum swings during a game and the disappointments of the prior week.
The Vikings are vulnerable on defense (particularly their young secondary), they are still prone to the types of penalties, turnovers, and special teams mistakes they made even when they were rolling teams and they have not shown they can put a team away when they have the chance. Regardless, the biggest mismatch in this game is between Minnesota through the air against the Carolina secondary, and I expect the pressure from the front seven can be adequately dealt with. On the other side, it isn't Moulds/ Reed/Price and Bledsoe that will be trying to keep the Viking defense from getting after it.
There are likely some cautionary technical edges working against a winless team giving more than a field goal to an undefeated team. Dogs have been barking and home teams can't even get the SU win. It's looking like this is pretty much the most popular play of the week. So it goes. On the other hand, although it assumes too much, I believe12 of the last 15 Viking wins have been by more than 6 points. I am looking for the Vikings to kick the damn door down or gag the whole game away.
Winning breeds confidence and excitement. I respect the immediate results under Carolina's new regime. In going 2-0, Carolina has given up two sacks and not had a turnover. Carolina will amaze me if they march into a hostile Metrodome and continue to shine with such poise and efficiency, especially when they average 3.3ypc to boot. On the other hand, maybe it is pretty easy for them at this point.
Adding a couple more . . .
GL
