Safeway International
- Thread starter pharlap
- Start date
Nice find pharlap--not quite as nice when I got there but decent just the same.
Appears to be changing of the quard with the youngsters coming up--vets are being exposed except Annika--which I have no doubt if she hadn't won last week we see her # 2 behind Wie in ratings this week
What a totally bogus world rating structure.
a few outrights to place top 5 @ cbet
Granda 14/1
Pressel 10/1
Hwa Lee 6 1/2 top 5 w/o sorenstam @ Expekt
Appears to be changing of the quard with the youngsters coming up--vets are being exposed except Annika--which I have no doubt if she hadn't won last week we see her # 2 behind Wie in ratings this week
What a totally bogus world rating structure.a few outrights to place top 5 @ cbet
Granda 14/1
Pressel 10/1
Hwa Lee 6 1/2 top 5 w/o sorenstam @ Expekt
Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)
Paula Creamer to win 10/1 e.w. @ SkyBet ('w/o Annika Sorenstam' market)
Odds of 14/1 are on offer (Victor Chandler and Expekt) for Creamer to win the event, but history shows that there is better value in the 'w/o Sorenstam' market. Creamer has won only once when Annika was in the field (2005 Evian Masters) and the World Number 1 was never in contention in that event. By contrast, Creamer's last two runners-up finishes have been to Annika last week they started the final round in a tie for the lead and in the final group, but it was Creamer who buckled under the pressure. But she still finished 4th and after an indifferent start to the year, her form was rediscovered during the 2nd round of the Fields Open in Hawaii when she faced a very real threat of missing the cut. She recovered to shoot 69 and so compete in the third and final round where she shot 67 to climb to 11th. With form not an issue, she should certainly improve on last year's debut on this course when let slip a top-10 finish with a poor final round. She is a different player twelve months on, though still not yet in the same class as Annika.
Lorena Ochoa to win 22/1 e.w. @ BetDirect
A year ago, Ochoa was a winning selection in the 'w/o Sorenstam' market, but at a best price of 11/1, the value is to be found in the full field market. In the two years that this event has been staged at Superstition Mountain, she has finished 3rd and 2nd and that really should have been one place higher last year. She wilted under the pressure from Annika posting a challenging score in the clubhouse and was denied a wire-to-wire win with a playoff loss. But for the lack of value in the 'w/o Sorenstam' market, that would have been the natural choice for this play. In terms of current form, there is little to complain about with Ochoa setting tournament records in each of her first two starts and finding the pressure of home expectation too much to bear last week. Last week's finish can be easily discounted and hopefully Ochoa can take heart for how well she has played this course in the last two years, despite last year's ending.
Seon Hwa Lee to win 27/1 e.w. @ Expekt ('w/o Annika Sorenstam' market)
Lee has been extremely impressive on her graduation to the LPGA Tour and while she was a close call to earn a place as a selection last week, she is not to be overlooked this time. She was passed over simply because she had virtually dominated the Fields Open, but was forced into a playoff after a closing 65 by Meena Lee, which she lost. But to recover from the disappointment of losing her first playoff and then finishing 2nd in the next event is quite an achivement, but maybe it should not have been too much of a surprise. She was the leading money winner on the Futures Tours and finished in the top-5 in eleven of eighteen starts. That's a ratio that was only surpassed by Annika on this Tour and it shows her potential. So to get odds of 27/1 in the 'w/o Sorenstam' market when she is a best price of 33/1 to win the event is very good value.
Paula Creamer to win 10/1 e.w. @ SkyBet ('w/o Annika Sorenstam' market)
Odds of 14/1 are on offer (Victor Chandler and Expekt) for Creamer to win the event, but history shows that there is better value in the 'w/o Sorenstam' market. Creamer has won only once when Annika was in the field (2005 Evian Masters) and the World Number 1 was never in contention in that event. By contrast, Creamer's last two runners-up finishes have been to Annika last week they started the final round in a tie for the lead and in the final group, but it was Creamer who buckled under the pressure. But she still finished 4th and after an indifferent start to the year, her form was rediscovered during the 2nd round of the Fields Open in Hawaii when she faced a very real threat of missing the cut. She recovered to shoot 69 and so compete in the third and final round where she shot 67 to climb to 11th. With form not an issue, she should certainly improve on last year's debut on this course when let slip a top-10 finish with a poor final round. She is a different player twelve months on, though still not yet in the same class as Annika.
Lorena Ochoa to win 22/1 e.w. @ BetDirect
A year ago, Ochoa was a winning selection in the 'w/o Sorenstam' market, but at a best price of 11/1, the value is to be found in the full field market. In the two years that this event has been staged at Superstition Mountain, she has finished 3rd and 2nd and that really should have been one place higher last year. She wilted under the pressure from Annika posting a challenging score in the clubhouse and was denied a wire-to-wire win with a playoff loss. But for the lack of value in the 'w/o Sorenstam' market, that would have been the natural choice for this play. In terms of current form, there is little to complain about with Ochoa setting tournament records in each of her first two starts and finding the pressure of home expectation too much to bear last week. Last week's finish can be easily discounted and hopefully Ochoa can take heart for how well she has played this course in the last two years, despite last year's ending.
Seon Hwa Lee to win 27/1 e.w. @ Expekt ('w/o Annika Sorenstam' market)
Lee has been extremely impressive on her graduation to the LPGA Tour and while she was a close call to earn a place as a selection last week, she is not to be overlooked this time. She was passed over simply because she had virtually dominated the Fields Open, but was forced into a playoff after a closing 65 by Meena Lee, which she lost. But to recover from the disappointment of losing her first playoff and then finishing 2nd in the next event is quite an achivement, but maybe it should not have been too much of a surprise. She was the leading money winner on the Futures Tours and finished in the top-5 in eleven of eighteen starts. That's a ratio that was only surpassed by Annika on this Tour and it shows her potential. So to get odds of 27/1 in the 'w/o Sorenstam' market when she is a best price of 33/1 to win the event is very good value.
Matchup plays (2pts unless stated)
Michele Redman to beat Soo-Yun Kang -105 @ Pinnacle
With finishes of 7th and 8th in the two years that this course has hosted this event, Redman should be a player to side with this week. She actually finished behind Kang last year, but that was the only time in her last five starts in Arizona that she has made the cut, while over the same period Redman has finished in the top-15 every time. They have finished ahead of each other once this season, but Redman should be favoured on this course and in Arizona.
Morgan Pressel to beat Karrie Webb -133 @ Pinnacle
Even ignoring Webb's poor form at the start of the season and on this course, she is certainly opposable against Pressel who has a 6-1-0 h2h lead against over the past year and that includes two events this year when Pressel has been ahead of Webb after every single round.
(also available at Centrebet)
Catriona Matthew to beat Ai Miyazato +110 @ Pinnacle [4pts]
This is a price based rather more on the hype around Miyazato than her real form. She disappointed in the World Cup and has managed finishes of 48th, 24th and 56th, which are a long way from superstar form. Matthew also disappointed in Hawaii after playing so well in the World Cup, but a top-20 finish in Mexico last week earned her a six-shot victory over Miyazato and she can use her two years' of experience at Superstition Mountain (finishes of 21st and 32nd) to compound her edge over the course rookie.
Michele Redman to beat Soo-Yun Kang -105 @ Pinnacle
With finishes of 7th and 8th in the two years that this course has hosted this event, Redman should be a player to side with this week. She actually finished behind Kang last year, but that was the only time in her last five starts in Arizona that she has made the cut, while over the same period Redman has finished in the top-15 every time. They have finished ahead of each other once this season, but Redman should be favoured on this course and in Arizona.
Morgan Pressel to beat Karrie Webb -133 @ Pinnacle
Even ignoring Webb's poor form at the start of the season and on this course, she is certainly opposable against Pressel who has a 6-1-0 h2h lead against over the past year and that includes two events this year when Pressel has been ahead of Webb after every single round.
(also available at Centrebet)
Catriona Matthew to beat Ai Miyazato +110 @ Pinnacle [4pts]
This is a price based rather more on the hype around Miyazato than her real form. She disappointed in the World Cup and has managed finishes of 48th, 24th and 56th, which are a long way from superstar form. Matthew also disappointed in Hawaii after playing so well in the World Cup, but a top-20 finish in Mexico last week earned her a six-shot victory over Miyazato and she can use her two years' of experience at Superstition Mountain (finishes of 21st and 32nd) to compound her edge over the course rookie.
lets make it unanimous
Single Bets
STATUS Description Price Wager USD Payout Results
Accepted Safeway International - Tournament Head to Heads - WEBB v PRESSEL - Head to Head - PRESSEL, Morgan Win 1.80 40.00 72.00
Single Bets
STATUS Description Price Wager USD Payout Results
Accepted Safeway International - Tournament Head to Heads - WEBB v PRESSEL - Head to Head - PRESSEL, Morgan Win 1.80 40.00 72.00
in running to place top 5 @ Cbet
Kerr 10/1
Gulbis 8/1
both long way back--weekend weather will see lots of movement up and down leaderboard--3 more days to climb or drop
Kerr 10/1
Gulbis 8/1
both long way back--weekend weather will see lots of movement up and down leaderboard--3 more days to climb or drop
Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -3.00pts
Creamer 7th
Ochoa 24th
Lee 37th
With Annika not in contention, I would have expected a lot better from Creamer being in 3rd after 36 holes and onyl Sarah Lee and Aree Song ahead of her. In the end, she even missed out on the place payout by a shot.
Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 2-1; +3.74pts
Redman/Kang WON by 6
Webb/Pressel LOST by 7
Matthew/Miyazato WON by 8
At last, a profit on the LPGA Tour matchups. A long time overdue!
LPGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 4-10; -4.02pts
Matchups: 4-8; -11.84pts
Creamer 7th
Ochoa 24th
Lee 37th
With Annika not in contention, I would have expected a lot better from Creamer being in 3rd after 36 holes and onyl Sarah Lee and Aree Song ahead of her. In the end, she even missed out on the place payout by a shot.
Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 2-1; +3.74pts
Redman/Kang WON by 6
Webb/Pressel LOST by 7
Matthew/Miyazato WON by 8
At last, a profit on the LPGA Tour matchups. A long time overdue!
LPGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 4-10; -4.02pts
Matchups: 4-8; -11.84pts
