No particular expertise with either team although I follow the Saints pretty closely.
I keep looking at the total for this game and I just feel under is the play. A couple of reasons (bear with me as I try to string these together and make sense):
I believe it is unlikely that we will see another 45-35 type game. Let's start with the Rams. Ever since Goff lost Kupp--to my eye--the Rams are not quite as explosive/high scoring. As we saw in the game against Dallas (a pretty stout defense), they kind of love the new tandem of Gurley with Anderson. In the Saints win earlier this season, they jumped out to a big lead by the 2Q. Keep in mind, the Rams did not have Talib, and Brees ate up the zone, which is what he does to just about any zone with enough time in the pocket. I think McVay will make it a point to try to keep this game close out of the gate by limiting time and possessions for Saints offense, especially with recent success of Gurley/Anderson. Keep in mind that Saints D is without Sheldon Rankins.
In addition, Rams will have Talib--likely man to man on Thomas, who seems to be the only receiver on the field lately for Brees. Also, Brees has always shown a chink in the armor when it comes to pressure in his face and I think the Rams will make life a little tougher on him today. Nobody confuses Brees for Mahomes so man to man is not a big risk in terms of chunk scrambles.
On the other side, Saints D has been good statistically. But they always seem to give offenses hope, especially with soft zone in clutch time. I do think Goff is a potential liability for the Rams in this game--perhaps another reason for McVay to focus more on the run.
Anyway-- if I had to pick the score now, I would say Saints prevail...maybe 24 to 21 with a field goal or two either way. I am probably looking at using Rams and under in teaser, as well as straight under. Will not try for side as I could truly see Rams frustrating Brees and getting the outright. Good luck with whatever you play. :toast:
I keep looking at the total for this game and I just feel under is the play. A couple of reasons (bear with me as I try to string these together and make sense):
I believe it is unlikely that we will see another 45-35 type game. Let's start with the Rams. Ever since Goff lost Kupp--to my eye--the Rams are not quite as explosive/high scoring. As we saw in the game against Dallas (a pretty stout defense), they kind of love the new tandem of Gurley with Anderson. In the Saints win earlier this season, they jumped out to a big lead by the 2Q. Keep in mind, the Rams did not have Talib, and Brees ate up the zone, which is what he does to just about any zone with enough time in the pocket. I think McVay will make it a point to try to keep this game close out of the gate by limiting time and possessions for Saints offense, especially with recent success of Gurley/Anderson. Keep in mind that Saints D is without Sheldon Rankins.
In addition, Rams will have Talib--likely man to man on Thomas, who seems to be the only receiver on the field lately for Brees. Also, Brees has always shown a chink in the armor when it comes to pressure in his face and I think the Rams will make life a little tougher on him today. Nobody confuses Brees for Mahomes so man to man is not a big risk in terms of chunk scrambles.
On the other side, Saints D has been good statistically. But they always seem to give offenses hope, especially with soft zone in clutch time. I do think Goff is a potential liability for the Rams in this game--perhaps another reason for McVay to focus more on the run.
Anyway-- if I had to pick the score now, I would say Saints prevail...maybe 24 to 21 with a field goal or two either way. I am probably looking at using Rams and under in teaser, as well as straight under. Will not try for side as I could truly see Rams frustrating Brees and getting the outright. Good luck with whatever you play. :toast:
